The "International Finance Forum-2010 Beijing Global Annual Conference" kicked off yesterday. At the annual meeting, Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the National Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China, predicted that CPI may exceed 4% in October. Due to the high monthly inflation rate, Cheng Siwei believes that it is imperative to raise interest rates, but it faces a dilemma of hot money inflows.
China’s macroeconomic data for October is about to be announced. At yesterday’s International Finance Forum, journalists were very concerned about whether the October CPI would exceed the 3.6% rise in September and set a new high. In this regard, Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the National Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China, said that due to inertia in inflation, the October CPI is likely to exceed 4%.
Cheng Siwei: Because of inflation, he has an inertia, and we can't put monetary policy into a tight one. It's not OK to brake hard. Many projects are under construction. If you build half of you, you don’t give money. Then he’s not all that Half-Lazi project it? So we can't brake. So now the problem is that you look at this trend, the first 9 months have been 2.9%, August's 3.3%, September's 3.6%, you will increase by 0.3, October may be 3.9%, you may not be careful To 4%, it is entirely possible that this is a consideration.
Cheng Siwei also said that if we count imported inflation brought about by the rise in international oil prices and food prices, then China's CPI can be controlled within 5% within a year is very good, but the 5% inflation rate, compared to 10% in China The economic growth is not terrible.
Cheng Siwei: Internationally, oil prices and food prices have all increased. Then this type of input inflation, especially this oil, is now a big importer of oil. We import 1.4 billion barrels a year. What is the concept? If oil rises by one dollar, we Chinese people have to pay a dollar. Do you think this has a big impact on us? Therefore, if input-type inflation is to be added, then the danger is indeed there, so I once said that if we can control it within 5% this year, it would be very good. Actually, from another point of view, your economic growth rate 10%, your inflation rate is not terrible at 5%.
The inflation rate has been rising month by month, which has led to an increase in interest rates. Cheng Siwei believes that it is imperative to raise interest rates, but is facing the problem of hot money inflows.
Cheng Siwei: According to my opinion, raising interest rates is imperative. Why? Because everyone's deposits are now negative, people's deposits have shrunk. Another inflationary trend seems to be still developing, so it is imperative to raise interest rates. The problem now is that the more you raise interest rates, the bigger the spread is, and the more likely it is that hot money will come in. It will be profitable, and you will think of more ways to come in, so it's hard to be difficult here.
China’s macroeconomic data for October is about to be announced. At yesterday’s International Finance Forum, journalists were very concerned about whether the October CPI would exceed the 3.6% rise in September and set a new high. In this regard, Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the National Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China, said that due to inertia in inflation, the October CPI is likely to exceed 4%.
Cheng Siwei: Because of inflation, he has an inertia, and we can't put monetary policy into a tight one. It's not OK to brake hard. Many projects are under construction. If you build half of you, you don’t give money. Then he’s not all that Half-Lazi project it? So we can't brake. So now the problem is that you look at this trend, the first 9 months have been 2.9%, August's 3.3%, September's 3.6%, you will increase by 0.3, October may be 3.9%, you may not be careful To 4%, it is entirely possible that this is a consideration.
Cheng Siwei also said that if we count imported inflation brought about by the rise in international oil prices and food prices, then China's CPI can be controlled within 5% within a year is very good, but the 5% inflation rate, compared to 10% in China The economic growth is not terrible.
Cheng Siwei: Internationally, oil prices and food prices have all increased. Then this type of input inflation, especially this oil, is now a big importer of oil. We import 1.4 billion barrels a year. What is the concept? If oil rises by one dollar, we Chinese people have to pay a dollar. Do you think this has a big impact on us? Therefore, if input-type inflation is to be added, then the danger is indeed there, so I once said that if we can control it within 5% this year, it would be very good. Actually, from another point of view, your economic growth rate 10%, your inflation rate is not terrible at 5%.
The inflation rate has been rising month by month, which has led to an increase in interest rates. Cheng Siwei believes that it is imperative to raise interest rates, but is facing the problem of hot money inflows.
Cheng Siwei: According to my opinion, raising interest rates is imperative. Why? Because everyone's deposits are now negative, people's deposits have shrunk. Another inflationary trend seems to be still developing, so it is imperative to raise interest rates. The problem now is that the more you raise interest rates, the bigger the spread is, and the more likely it is that hot money will come in. It will be profitable, and you will think of more ways to come in, so it's hard to be difficult here.