Energy and Metal Rebound Drive Commodity Volatility to Rise

After the previous week's fall, the prices of energy and metal products such as liquefied gas and silver led the commodity to oscillate again this week (February 20-24). ** The commodity comprehensive index on the market tracking the average performance of a basket of commodity prices also returned to the high point near the beginning of the month, rising by 0.91% from the previous week, basically regaining the decline of the previous week.

According to the spot data monitored by the Commodity Data Business Group, silver, LPG and gold ranked the top three spot prices in the commodity spot market this week, with silver rising by 4.27% from the previous week and LPG rising by 3.95%. The price of gold rose by 2.35% month-on-month. From the same period of last year, both gold and liquefied gas prices rose by more than 20% from the same period of last year, and the larger increase in liquefied gas prices rose by 27% year-on-year.

The analysis of the business club pointed out that among the 58 kinds of spot prices tracked, there were 25 kinds of rings that rose in the chain, which were concentrated in the metal and energy sectors, among which six products in the metal sector closed up. Shanghai Nonferrous Metals' basic metal quotation also showed that only nickel and tin products of the six base metals were pulled back slightly this week, including copper and aluminum products, which all rose up, with the largest increase in metal lead by 1.3%.

"The non-ferrous metals market showed signs of 'early spring'. In just one week, the market quickly recovered from 'more or less up and less' to 'more ups and downs'." Analysis of the business community Yanxia Yan said that the market The warming on the one hand is due to the higher external disk, especially the performance of precious metals, and the fact that the oil price hit a new high has also driven the increase in the production costs of some products. On the other hand, after the Spring Festival in the domestic market, the factories started one after another and the market demand also Bring some support.

“However, the current market negative overcast still exists, and domestic demand performance continues to be sluggish. Since the end of the period, the supply pressure of many domestic products has further increased, copper, aluminum, zinc and other stocks have accumulated further, and the recent oversupply situation is still difficult to change. It is expected that In March, when traders prepared for the upcoming peak season for purchase, the market may actually recover gradually, Fan Yanxia pointed out.

As for the performance of energy products that continued to be strong, the business community energy analyst Miao Xihua also pointed out that the international crude oil prices continued to operate at high levels and boosted the entire energy market. However, the demand for the domestic refined oil market has not yet fully started, and the coal market has also continued. As a result, the demand in the domestic energy market is stable and this trend may not be sustainable.

Liu Xintian, chief analyst of the business club, pointed out that the commodity market this week has returned to the rising stage from January to early February, but in fact the upward momentum of the market is difficult to continue strong. "On the one hand, although resource types such as crude oil and natural rubber continue to rise, and drive up prices of commodities such as liquefied gas, methanol and synthetic rubber, such products as diesel and PTA continue to remain unmoved and continue to fall, along with crude oil, etc. Product prices are set at a new high, and the driving effect on other products will also be weakened. On the other hand, market enthusiasm is gradually diminishing."

In the analysis of the business community, it is likely that the end of February and early March will be the watershed of the market. "As soon as the demand signal is warming, the market will accelerate its rise, and if demand continues to slump, the market may start the 'recovery' market," said Liu Xintian.