Summary Local time on Thursday, the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting, which is of greater concern to global investors, will be held as scheduled. If nothing else, the European Central Bank will further introduce a quantitative easing (QE) policy, maintaining the benchmark interest rate unchanged, continuing to be -0.3%; in the purchase of bonds, then...
On Thursday, local time, the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting, which is of greater concern to global investors, will be held as scheduled. If nothing else, the European Central Bank will further introduce a quantitative easing (QE) policy to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged, continuing to be -0.3%; in the purchase of bonds, it will increase the purchase amount, from the current monthly 60 billion euros, Increase to 70 billion euros, and even more. This expectation is naturally due to the situation in the euro zone. Judging from the current economic development of the countries in the Eurozone, in addition to the relatively good situation of the German economy, the economies of other countries are still quite depressed. The inflation level of the entire Eurozone is only around 0.6%, far below the expectations of the ECB. Contributed to the 2% goal. Even in the context of negative interest rates and QE, the liquidity of the euro zone is still relatively lacking. Recently, JP Morgan Chase published a research report that a European market liquidity index has fallen by more than 50% since the end of 2014.
The Eurozone is one of the four largest economies in the world. In the other three major economies, the United States, China and Japan, due to the recent uneven economic data, the Fed will hold interest rates unchanged at the March meeting on interest rates. To raise interest rates, it will wait until June. Internationally renowned investment banks have also lowered the number of Fed rate hikes this year by two to four times from the end of last year. In Japan, the negative interest rate policy was officially launched in late February to stimulate consumption and promote inflation to reach 2%. However, from the current situation, there is still a big gap, and monetary policy can only continue the loose route. . As for China, it has also lowered its target by 0.5 percentage points at the end of February. Recently, the Vice President of the Central Bank, Yi Gang, said: "In the next stage, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, maintain a moderate and moderate, timely adjustment and fine-tuning, and do a good job. Total demand management that is compatible with supply-side structural reforms. It is expected that liquidity will continue to be loose.
The situation in the four major economies is still the same. The monetary policies of other countries are also difficult to tighten. Therefore, the global monetary easing policy is expected to continue to boost economic activities and improve growth prospects. This can also be confirmed from the other side: in the past two months, crude oil, gold, commodities, etc. have seen a wave of up to 20%, the original reason is that liquidity is expected, not a substantial increase in demand.
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