At the beginning of the new year, the enthusiasm of governments of various countries to subsidize the photovoltaic industry has “cooled downâ€. Photovoltaic network
The German Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Ministry of Environment have recently reached an agreement that they will cut the subsidy for solar energy in July this year, and reported a maximum reduction of 15%. Far more than the figures released by the Ministry of Environment of the country last month. Similarly, in China, the relevant departments also recently promulgated new measures for the integration of photovoltaic buildings. According to the policy document, based on the amount of subsidy issued under the New Deal, China’s optoelectronic subsidies will fall by about 40% within two years.
Under the background of a low-carbon economy, countries have financially subsidized the photovoltaic industry. The original intention was to support and promote the development of this new environmental energy industry. However, the facts show that the intervention of administrative forces in the cost of photovoltaic power generation has disrupted the market-oriented choice of companies in the industry, resulting in a waste of social resources. Nowadays, the shrinking of relevant financial subsidies is precisely the rectification of the phenomenon of “being applauded†for photovoltaic projects, with the aim of introducing more market adjustment forces and promoting the burgeoning of terminal demand.
In theory, solar energy is inexhaustible. It is both economical and environmentally friendly, and it is being exploited as much as possible. However, under the current technology conditions, solar energy storage and power generation process is not economical. If the cost of coal is used as the base, the biomass power generation cost is 1.5 times, the wind power generation cost is 1.7 times, and the photovoltaic power generation cost is as much as 11 to 18 times. From an economic point of view, high costs mean high prices, and of course it is difficult to stimulate the desire to buy in the downstream market. This is precisely the reason why the financial subsidy was actively involved in the past, that is, through administrative subsidy to absorb part of the cost of photovoltaic power generation, in order to flatten the price highland, and then encourage social capital to actively entice in the photovoltaic field. However, what is counterproductive is that the vigorous support of financial funds has virtually encouraged the blind expansion of short-listed companies. Especially in the domestic photovoltaic power generation supporting technology is not yet mature, grid-connected inverter, control and other products have not been able to achieve the independent research and development of commercial production, under the pattern of photovoltaic projects around the country still shows a "great leap forward" trend, the company's normal cost accounting And market demand research was left behind. As a result, the government has vigorously reduced the amount of photovoltaic projects that can truly be included in the power grid. The traditional thermal power industry accounts for more than 70% of the power supply structure of the industry. Similarly, in Germany, PV project subsidies have also inflated the demand of power plant developers for profit, resulting in a high cost of the entire photovoltaic power generation industry, which is not conducive to the introduction of a competition mechanism to promote the orderly development of photovoltaic projects.
From this point of view, the weakening trend of financial subsidies should help cool down the enthusiasm of short-listed companies to expand PV projects blindly and return to the market-based behavior of balancing the costs and benefits. Take the status quo of the domestic photovoltaic industry as an example. At present, the investment for a photovoltaic power plant project is approximately 28 yuan per watt. It is based on the existing local and national subsidies and enterprise investment, and it takes 10 years to recover costs. Obviously, if there is no relevant department's vigorous rendering of the industry's development prospects and the attraction of various preferential measures, such a long recovery period will inevitably make public companies stop to wait and see, and thus ease the imbalance of photovoltaic power supply overbalance. Of course, this is also the "pain period" for the photovoltaic industry to go into the market. Enterprises with lagging technology and poor capital strength will inevitably fade out due to their inability to continue waiting, and the industry’s strongest may eventually become the flagship. Similarly, after the profits of the German power station developers have been compressed, they will also cause some companies with high costs to go out. From another perspective, this is where the charm of the market economy lies, and the photovoltaic power generation industry may gain the momentum of rapid development in the survival of the fittest.
Here, it needs to be mentioned that weakening the interference of the competent authorities in the cost of photovoltaic projects does not mean denying the regulatory power of the administrative power to the optoelectronic industry. On the contrary, related policies should be introduced as soon as possible, so as to reverse the phenomenon of “market failureâ€. For example, after a large amount of capital has been stripped from photovoltaic power plants, it has turned to direct sales of solar cells and is degenerating into a foreign solar panel foundry. In fact, China's high-purity silicon materials are scarce, and 95% are dependent on imports. The market for panel panels produced from these raw materials is mainly overseas. According to the data, 44% of solar panels in the world are produced in China, but only 0.73% are actually used in China. It must be mentioned that although the concept of using solar energy is very environmentally friendly, the production process of solar panels will cause serious pollution. In this connection, the large-scale subsidies that have been invested in photovoltaic projects in the past may well turn into a move to pay for pollution by using financial funds. Therefore, all localities should clearly define the production scale of such "two ends out" solar panels, and restrict the export of related products through protective tariffs.
The author believes that the administrative encouragement of the large-scale application of solar energy and other new energy industries is the root of the real growth of the photovoltaic industry. In the current domestic economic cost and access network technology is difficult to obtain a breakthrough pattern, financial subsidies can be considered inclined to end users. Once clean power is respected by the end market, the utilization of photovoltaic power generation will also be expanded. By then, the downstream demand for photovoltaic power generation will force manufacturers to compete to increase technology research and development, reduce production costs, and ultimately form a virtuous circle in the industry.
The promotion of new energy industries such as photovoltaic power generation is a general trend, and governments in various countries are constantly improving their interventions in practice. Weakened the subsidy of fiscal funds to the upstream industries of photovoltaics, and thus played the prelude to the rational distribution of regulatory forces.
(The author is the moderator of the Shanghai CBS Channel; Doctor of Economics)