Business News Agency February 7th In the case of continuous outflow of funds in the chemical sector, the methanol market continued to lighten up for several days, the price turned down and the long form gradually began to be destroyed. However, this week, the methanol futures once again jumped higher, standing on the 5th line and setting a new high in the near future. Covering the gap near 3045 above is just around the corner.
The correlation data shows that the correlation between the price of methanol and other commodities is not very high. Among them, the correlation between methanol and copper is the highest, which is 0.63, followed by the correlation with rubber, which is 0.58, which is in stark contrast to the correlation between other varieties reaching 0.8 or higher - indicating that the price of methanol has a certain trend in the trend. Independence. Analysis of the trend of the entire ** market We found that when the overall market is weak, methanol, coke and other related species sometimes show a strong trend. Therefore, in the case of the recent mainstream commodity platform consolidation, methanol may instead go out of the independent market.
From a macro perspective, the recent macro is in a warmer trend. The US Department of Labor announced on Friday that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States rose by 243,000 in January, the highest level since April last year. In January, the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 8.3%, the lowest level since February 2009. With the macro data being better, the price of methanol is expected to gain more support, while the fall in the price of gold, the general rise in the commodity market also constitutes a strong support for the futures market.
Although the trading of methanol** is still not optimistic, the guiding significance of the price of methanol to spot prices has already become apparent. A significant number of traders report that spot trading is clearly active when the methanol price strengthens. After analyzing the relevant data, the author also found that when the price of methanol rose, the spot price rose more obviously. The strong methanol price before the Spring Festival drove the spot price of Jiangsu methanol from 2,700 yuan/ton to 3,000 yuan/ton, and Ningbo climbed to 3,100 yuan/ton. Judging from the current mentality of traders, the spot price of 3,000 yuan/ton of methanol is in a more awkward position. The buyer believes that the price is higher and the seller is not willing to cut prices. The spot price of methanol lacks the momentum for further upside. The port methanol inventory also rose rapidly from the pre-holiday lower level to the normal level of 450,000 tons after the holiday. In the process of rising spot price of methanol, large-scale traders are constantly shipping. At present, the operating rate of methanol enterprises in the Mainland is also steadily rising. The author believes that the upward momentum of methanol in the market is relatively limited.
From the perspective of the industry chain, most of the methanol downstream companies have not yet started construction, and the low demand downstream is the main factor that makes the spot price of methanol unsustainable. Since the spot prices for formaldehyde, acetic acid, etc. are still in the lower price range, the downstream market has a wait-and-see attitude toward the current methanol price, which hinders the further upward movement of the methanol market. From the upstream market, although the price of steam coal has stopped falling, it is difficult to make big changes in the light of the demand, and the cost support for methanol will be further weakened.
In the short term, the price of methanol re-stopped on the 5th line, which was caused by the warming of macro conditions. At present, the price of methanol is still in the rising channel. The weak downstream demand and the macroscopically warmer game will continue to affect the market trend. Before the March contract is delivered, there is a high possibility that the price of methanol will remain high. Operation, should not continue to chase more, pay attention to the gap near the methanol ** 3045 cover, if the price can cover the gap, you can try a small amount of empty orders near the gap.
The correlation data shows that the correlation between the price of methanol and other commodities is not very high. Among them, the correlation between methanol and copper is the highest, which is 0.63, followed by the correlation with rubber, which is 0.58, which is in stark contrast to the correlation between other varieties reaching 0.8 or higher - indicating that the price of methanol has a certain trend in the trend. Independence. Analysis of the trend of the entire ** market We found that when the overall market is weak, methanol, coke and other related species sometimes show a strong trend. Therefore, in the case of the recent mainstream commodity platform consolidation, methanol may instead go out of the independent market.
From a macro perspective, the recent macro is in a warmer trend. The US Department of Labor announced on Friday that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States rose by 243,000 in January, the highest level since April last year. In January, the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 8.3%, the lowest level since February 2009. With the macro data being better, the price of methanol is expected to gain more support, while the fall in the price of gold, the general rise in the commodity market also constitutes a strong support for the futures market.
Although the trading of methanol** is still not optimistic, the guiding significance of the price of methanol to spot prices has already become apparent. A significant number of traders report that spot trading is clearly active when the methanol price strengthens. After analyzing the relevant data, the author also found that when the price of methanol rose, the spot price rose more obviously. The strong methanol price before the Spring Festival drove the spot price of Jiangsu methanol from 2,700 yuan/ton to 3,000 yuan/ton, and Ningbo climbed to 3,100 yuan/ton. Judging from the current mentality of traders, the spot price of 3,000 yuan/ton of methanol is in a more awkward position. The buyer believes that the price is higher and the seller is not willing to cut prices. The spot price of methanol lacks the momentum for further upside. The port methanol inventory also rose rapidly from the pre-holiday lower level to the normal level of 450,000 tons after the holiday. In the process of rising spot price of methanol, large-scale traders are constantly shipping. At present, the operating rate of methanol enterprises in the Mainland is also steadily rising. The author believes that the upward momentum of methanol in the market is relatively limited.
From the perspective of the industry chain, most of the methanol downstream companies have not yet started construction, and the low demand downstream is the main factor that makes the spot price of methanol unsustainable. Since the spot prices for formaldehyde, acetic acid, etc. are still in the lower price range, the downstream market has a wait-and-see attitude toward the current methanol price, which hinders the further upward movement of the methanol market. From the upstream market, although the price of steam coal has stopped falling, it is difficult to make big changes in the light of the demand, and the cost support for methanol will be further weakened.
In the short term, the price of methanol re-stopped on the 5th line, which was caused by the warming of macro conditions. At present, the price of methanol is still in the rising channel. The weak downstream demand and the macroscopically warmer game will continue to affect the market trend. Before the March contract is delivered, there is a high possibility that the price of methanol will remain high. Operation, should not continue to chase more, pay attention to the gap near the methanol ** 3045 cover, if the price can cover the gap, you can try a small amount of empty orders near the gap.
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