In recent years, China's new energy (6.140, 0.02, 0.33%) auto industry has thrived under the policy push, and the proportion of new energy vehicle production has ranked first in the world for three consecutive years. Some experts predict that the new energy vehicle subsidy policy will be smoothly withdrawn within two or three years, giving way to the market and allowing the market to freely choose the future development route.
As the entire industry enters the “post-subsidy eraâ€, what challenges and opportunities will the new energy vehicle industry chain face? How do the middle and lower reaches of the industry chain work together? Recently, Simple Capital and New Fortune jointly held the “2018 New Energy Automobile Industry Summit Forumâ€. Industry experts and investors jointly took the pulse industry and thought that the development prospect of the new energy vehicle market is bright. The “post-subsidy era†has accelerated the low-end production capacity of the industry. In the pattern of clearing out and strengthening the strong, the investment opportunities in the future are still rich and colorful, and the industry leaders in some segments are still emerging.
Low-end capacity accelerated
Well-known economist Ba Shusong said that looking forward to China's economic and financial policies in 2018, monetary policy will turn to anti-foam, deleveraging and risk prevention. For a long time to come, the upgrading of the manufacturing industry structure will be the new kinetic energy of China's high-quality economy. In this context, the new energy automotive industry will usher in opportunities.
Li Baohua, a professor at Shenzhen University Graduate School of Tsinghua University, and Zibo Hua, a new wealth analyst, said that the development of new energy vehicles is an industrial policy and national strategy after comprehensive consideration of national security and economic interests. The market is firmly optimistic about the development opportunities of the new energy vehicle market. The “post-subsidy era†may bring short-term pain, but in the long run, policy-driven transition to consumption-driven, can optimize the industrial structure and improve the global competitiveness of state-owned brands.
Faced with the uncertainty brought about by policy adjustments, the industry generally believes that it is necessary to return to the essence of automobile development - controlling costs and improving quality is the key. The concentration of the industry has increased, the strong ones have been strong, and structural overcapacity has also emerged. The high-cost, low-quality low-end production capacity has gradually cleared. Enterprises with technological advantages, market advantages, and capital advantages can win in the “post-subsidy era†environment, and the industry gradually transitions from “hundred flowers†​​to “oligarch competitionâ€.
Where are the opportunities for the future? Ping Jian, a partner of Plain Capital, believes that domestically replaced high-end materials, devices and equipment, forward-looking technology and smart driving are three important investment directions in the future. Changjiang Securities (5.970, -0.06, -1.00%) Zibo Hua, chief analyst of power equipment and new energy, believes that under the policy background and market capacity, China will have 5 million vehicles in 2020, accounting for the world's new energy vehicles. If the quantity is more than 70%, the international market is the key breakthrough area in the future.
Industry chain integration trend is obvious
From the data of the capital market in the past three years, the scale of mergers and acquisitions in the field of new energy vehicles is larger than that of direct investment. According to statistics, in 2017, there were several mergers and acquisitions in the lithium battery industry, with an average of 12 days of mergers and acquisitions. The top ten mergers and acquisitions totaled 28.5 billion yuan.
Some insiders concluded that the investment in new energy vehicles has entered the 2.0 era, with mergers and acquisitions as the main focus, horizontal and vertical layout, emphasizing the synergy of the industrial chain.
In the sub-sector industry chain, we must be bigger and stronger. In addition to quality-end optimization and cost-end control, we also need to achieve industry benchmarks and participate in global competition with high-standard industry advantages. In this process, it is inseparable from the optimization and strengthening of the enterprise itself, but it is inseparable from the control ability of the upstream and downstream enterprises. The merger and acquisition of mergers and acquisitions is the driving force for the merger and the development trend of the industry.
In the face of cross-border layout of enterprises, industry experts suggest to see the technical barriers in various sub-areas, and can not blindly lengthen the industrial chain. They should selectively arrange upstream and downstream enterprises according to their own technological advantages, customer advantages and market advantages. Realize the synergy of the industry. For the layout of new markets, such as fast charging, wireless charging, and power exchange, it is necessary to comprehensively consider factors such as laws and regulations, operating costs, and technical feasibility before deciding whether to layout.
In general, the development of new energy vehicles has entered the era of investment 2.0, focusing on mergers and acquisitions, paying attention to the synergy of the industrial chain, and providing more opportunities for becoming bigger and stronger.
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