The central bank will adjust the deposit base from September 5, and deposit the deposits of bank acceptance bills, letters of credit, guarantees, etc. into the deposit reserve. The proportion of deposits is the same as the current deposit reserve ratio, that is, the big banks. 21.5%, 19.5% of small banks, which triggered widespread market attention. “The policy of the central bank to issue margin withdrawal reserve ratio is both unexpected and reasonable.†Zhou Jingwei, deputy researcher of the Strategic Development Department of the Bank of China, told the China Economic Times reporter that the policy was “according to the opportunity†and its impact was different aspects.
"Liquid tightening will have a inhibitory effect on high prices." Zhou Jingyu said. Under the general environment of excess social mobility, after the central bank adjusts the deposit reserve, if it is calculated based on the 4.4 trillion guarantee base at the end of July, the bank system will freeze the loanable funds of 900 billion yuan in the next six months. , equivalent to an increase of 2.4 (about 1.2 percentage points) deposit reserve ratio. According to the preliminary calculation of the deposit schedule, the monthly frozen funds of financial institutions will be 152 billion, 221.2 billion, 221.2 billion, 82.9 billion, 110.5 billion and 110.5 billion yuan in the next six months. Due to the securities trading deposit and credit card margin deposit, this time, the deposit deposit account that was not included in the reserve base was enlarged and the negative impact was calculated based on the calculation of 4.4 trillion yuan. The actual frozen funds should be less than 900 billion yuan, which is estimated to be around 450 billion yuan. Although the estimated amount of money is not the same, the currency is indisputable. In the short term, the increase in liquidity caused by the approval may have a certain inhibitory effect on the domestic price level that is not optimistic. In addition, the central bank's move will not only make the traditional “poor money†SMEs worse, but also the large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises that are “not bad money†in the traditional sense will also feel unprecedented financial pressure. According to Zhou Jingxuan's analysis, in a positive sense, enterprises that can recover liquidity, can make capital use inefficient, accelerate transformation and upgrading, and can promote the real-time market regulation effect as soon as possible. But the negative meaning is also very obvious. Under the oligopoly structure of China's big banks, the problem of financing difficulties for SMEs will become more prominent, resulting in a shortage of bank credit funds that have the greatest support for the real economy. It may also expose many projects that started in the first two or three years to the risk of “weaningâ€. . Therefore, he believes that the phenomenon of “poor money†caused by the tighter banks' loanable funds is likely to expand to large and medium-sized enterprises. Not only that, but the collective “poor money†of various types of enterprises may also affect the real economy. In Zhou Jingzhen's view, all types of enterprises are currently facing unprecedented financial pressure. While the implementation of the margin approval policy has affected the bank's deposit sources, it has also brought about a major change in the financing methods of SMEs, which means that it is more difficult for enterprises to borrow funds from banks. The financing costs will also increase accordingly, and the investment enthusiasm of enterprises without additional funds will also be affected. Based on these two considerations, the real economy is likely to be affected, and it is less likely to rebound sharply in the short term.
"Liquid tightening will have a inhibitory effect on high prices." Zhou Jingyu said. Under the general environment of excess social mobility, after the central bank adjusts the deposit reserve, if it is calculated based on the 4.4 trillion guarantee base at the end of July, the bank system will freeze the loanable funds of 900 billion yuan in the next six months. , equivalent to an increase of 2.4 (about 1.2 percentage points) deposit reserve ratio. According to the preliminary calculation of the deposit schedule, the monthly frozen funds of financial institutions will be 152 billion, 221.2 billion, 221.2 billion, 82.9 billion, 110.5 billion and 110.5 billion yuan in the next six months. Due to the securities trading deposit and credit card margin deposit, this time, the deposit deposit account that was not included in the reserve base was enlarged and the negative impact was calculated based on the calculation of 4.4 trillion yuan. The actual frozen funds should be less than 900 billion yuan, which is estimated to be around 450 billion yuan. Although the estimated amount of money is not the same, the currency is indisputable. In the short term, the increase in liquidity caused by the approval may have a certain inhibitory effect on the domestic price level that is not optimistic. In addition, the central bank's move will not only make the traditional “poor money†SMEs worse, but also the large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises that are “not bad money†in the traditional sense will also feel unprecedented financial pressure. According to Zhou Jingxuan's analysis, in a positive sense, enterprises that can recover liquidity, can make capital use inefficient, accelerate transformation and upgrading, and can promote the real-time market regulation effect as soon as possible. But the negative meaning is also very obvious. Under the oligopoly structure of China's big banks, the problem of financing difficulties for SMEs will become more prominent, resulting in a shortage of bank credit funds that have the greatest support for the real economy. It may also expose many projects that started in the first two or three years to the risk of “weaningâ€. . Therefore, he believes that the phenomenon of “poor money†caused by the tighter banks' loanable funds is likely to expand to large and medium-sized enterprises. Not only that, but the collective “poor money†of various types of enterprises may also affect the real economy. In Zhou Jingzhen's view, all types of enterprises are currently facing unprecedented financial pressure. While the implementation of the margin approval policy has affected the bank's deposit sources, it has also brought about a major change in the financing methods of SMEs, which means that it is more difficult for enterprises to borrow funds from banks. The financing costs will also increase accordingly, and the investment enthusiasm of enterprises without additional funds will also be affected. Based on these two considerations, the real economy is likely to be affected, and it is less likely to rebound sharply in the short term.
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