Painful conduction, the hardship of the shipbuilding community

In the recent period, the debt crisis in Europe has intensified, and the global economic growth has slowed down and uncertainties have increased. Affected by this, the global steel demand was weak, and the spot prices of steel and crush prices of iron ore fell. This triggered a series of chain reactions. For China's steel industry and shipbuilding industry, the next "winter" is not very good.

The direct and indirect impacts of the spot price of steel and the fall in the price of iron ore to shore are many: First, steel companies have substantially lowered their steel prices, hoping to win more orders in the market where demand has been sluggish; Second, the dry bulk shipping rate fell back. The Baltic Sea Dry Freight Comprehensive Freight Index (BDI) plunged by 17.1% during the 10 trading days from October 24 to November 4, which caused shipowners to dry The willingness of ship owners to book vessels and their payment will be reduced. Some shipowners have even offered to postpone the delivery of vessels. This has led to delays in payments due to major nodes; the third is the lack of support for shipbuilders of all types of shipbuilding purchases and their owners. Intentionally or unintentionally delaying the production schedule to disrupt production and predicting that prices of steel prices in the future market will fall, etc., the procurement work for shipbuilding enterprises will be greatly affected, and it is not ruled out that the purchase volume of some marine steel products may decline.

Iron and steel: price cuts rob a single, short-term losses are inevitable

Due to the lack of downstream demand support, the domestic steel market began to decline in mid-September. From October 14 to October 21, the domestic rebar price had the largest “diving” since the beginning of the year, and the average price of HRB33520 millimeter rebar in the main market. There was a drop of 263 yuan/ton. In November, the spot price of domestic steel products still fell. As of November 3, the average price of 20 mm plate in the major domestic market was 4,305 yuan, down 9 yuan from the previous trading day; the average price of 25 mm rebar was reported at 4,300 yuan. , down 15 yuan; 5.5 mm hot rolled coil average price of 4,217 yuan, down 7 yuan.

Under the impact of the spot price of steel products, the relatively stable iron ore crushing prices also plunged. In early October, the average cif price of imported iron ore was 176 US dollars. By November 4, the imported iron ore was The average stone CIF is US$131/ton, with a cumulative drop of 25.6%. In addition, future downstream demand is still underperforming. In October, the domestic manufacturing index was 50.4%, down 0.8% from the previous month. After entering November, the start of domestic real estate and infrastructure construction will gradually decrease. The difficulties of domestic railway projects will be difficult to overcome in the short term. Automobiles, ships and machinery The boom in manufacturing and other industries is expected to decline.

Affected by this, domestic steel companies have significantly reduced the steel prices, and it is expected that domestic steel companies will also lower their respective shipboard prices in December. Judging from the ship's point of view, in November, the ex-factory price of Anshan Iron and Steel's shipboard was excluding tax of RMB 4,040 per ton, down RMB 100/ton from the previous month, and is expected to be adjusted downwards in December; Baosteel’s shipboard price in November has not been adjusted. , Excluding tax is 4860 yuan / ton, but for long-term customers have 100 yuan / ton discount, is expected to have a substantial downward adjustment next month. In addition, the ex-factory prices of new steel, heavy steel, and Nanjing Iron and Steel ship include tax between 4600-4700 yuan / ton. In general, in September and October, the cumulative domestic shipboard price has been reduced by 300-400 yuan/ton.

According to statistics, at present, domestic imports of high-priced iron ore in Hong Kong up to 80 million tons, enough for domestic major steel companies to consume a quarter. One side is the plummeting steel price, and the other is the high-priced mines imported in the previous period. In the short term, the loss of steel companies is inevitable. In the face of loss and lack of orders, different companies have different strategies. Some large iron and steel companies like Anshan Iron and Steel's three plate production capacity of 350,000 tons / month, while the orders received can only meet the production needs of a 170,000 tons / month production line of the Bayuquan Iron and Steel Company, these companies will Orders were distributed to various production lines in order to maintain follow-up production. Some weaker small companies simply shut down the production line. It is understood that in October, there were 9 medium-thick plates, 9 hot-rolled coils, and 18 rebar lines that were shut down.

Shipbuilding: knowing yourself, increasing purchasing power

The decline in the price of steel products, steel enterprises have a hard time, it is reasonable to say that shipbuilding companies should benefit, but in fact, in the macroeconomic downturn, the boat companies have a hard time, others do not check, ignorant and self-knowledge. In the first three quarters, China's shipping companies newly accepted ship orders of 29.02 million dwt, a decrease of 42.8% year-on-year. At the same time, since the beginning of this year, China's handheld ship orders have continued to decline. As of the end of the third quarter, it was 168.6 million dwt, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%. From an objective point of view, the continuous reduction of "storage" will directly lead to a reduction in the purchase of shipboards. The ship plate in the domestic plate market has a large proportion, the continued decline in the purchase of ship plate will make the entire plate market demand further shrink, prices continue to fall. The reporter learned from the Northeast Company and Huadong Company of China Shipbuilding Material Trading Group Co., Ltd. that since the beginning of this year, the two companies’ purchase volume of marine steel has declined. The person in charge of the Northeast Company told the reporter that if the shipbuilding market cannot be improved in the future, if the shipbuilder's new ship orders cannot be picked up, the purchase volume of marine steel, especially shipbuilding, may continue to fall.

Of course, the factors influencing the purchase of shipboards are by no means only one “new ship order number”, and the shipowner factor is also mixed. Affected by the decline in international iron ore prices, BDI continued to pull back. It closed at 1784 on November 4th. Compared with 2153 on October 24th, it plunged 17.1% in 10 trading days. The use of "destructive defeat" to describe this year's BDI trend is not too much. It has been hovering below 1600 points before August 30. It has just picked up in September and was "back to the original shape" in the middle and late October. This is undoubtedly the market. The rebuilding of confidence is very unfavorable. Specifically, the impact is mainly reflected in the following two aspects: First, the willingness of dry-bulk ship owners to make orders will be further reduced, and Chinese shipping companies, which mainly undertake bulk carriers, will become more embarrassed. Domestic steel The long-term market demand may shrink further; Second, the willingness of delaying shipbuilders who have made special bulk carriers will increase, making it difficult for shipping companies to obtain sufficient purchase funds at major nodes and affecting the short-term of the domestic steel market. demand.

"This should not be procurement and procurement can be two concepts." A shipping company's material procurement department official told reporters: "This should not be procurement refers to the timing of procurement, the current perspective, the future of the domestic ship board price further callback Probable; the possibility of procurement means that there is no procurement funds, if the shipowner does not deliver the money on time, according to the node, in the current situation of tight cash flow, no boat company will use a lot of its own funds 'scarry goods' "It should be said that there are not a few ship owners in the industry who have the above-mentioned ideas. Therefore, even if the ship's plate prices have been significantly reduced from the beginning of September, it is difficult to stimulate a lot of speculative demand. After all, the ship companies also have their own. Hardship.

Each has its own hardships, economic warming can solve the problem

“Hugging for warmth” is a word we often say in the crisis, but objectively speaking, if the macroeconomic environment is not ideal, even if the upstream and downstream industries and companies are “clustered”, their “warmth” may not be felt. Too strong, after all, each has its own interests, each having their own difficulties. Therefore, from a fundamental point of view, if the difficulties of shipbuilding steel are to be truly relieved, it will be necessary to wait until the macroeconomic warming. Of course, this does not mean that it is meaningless to “enclosure the group to warm up”. The “Marine Steel Alliance” has indeed played a significant role in the two industries since the outbreak of the international financial crisis. However, as companies should not overestimate the role of strategic cooperation, "cluster" is to reduce the impact of the crisis, and can not completely resolve the crisis; "heating" is only interdependent in the cold winter, and can not completely remove the chill.

In addition, companies must make effective use of strategic cooperation. In the recent period, under the influence of the debt crisis in Europe, the global economy has experienced a sharp increase in the face of decline. Under this background, when the upstream and downstream industry enterprises are carrying out strategic cooperation, there is no shortage of information on whether or not one party will perform “extremely self-serving” in the name of “warming others”. In the long run, such an approach is not conducive to the development of enterprises in various industries. For example, in cooperation with steel companies, shipbuilding companies cannot blindly pursue low prices. They should pay more attention to the quality and technical performance of marine steel products and supply stability, so as to steadily improve their own product quality and establish Good market reputation; Steel companies can not only blindly pursue purchases when they cooperate with shipping companies. They should focus on the big and small, and provide more technical support to Chinese small-boat enterprises with good operating conditions and development potential to develop their customer base.

In short, the shipping companies and steel companies must understand that "warring the group to warm up" just hopes that each can be better in this cold winter, and will not shiver, but if they really want to feel comfortable and comfortable, they have to wait until "spring blossoms."