During the 2nd China Steel Industry Summit held here on 6th-7th, Qi Xiangdong, the former deputy secretary-general of China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), said that in the first three quarters of this year, China's export of steel was 36,244,400 tons of crude steel, an increase of 116.73% year-on-year. However, from a quarter-on-quarter perspective, in fact, in July, equivalent to 4,318,800 tons of crude steel exports, a decrease of 20.03%; August also fell by 37.94%; September is still an average of 21.86% lower than the first half of the month. From the current situation of export of steel products, the trend of China's steel exports in the fourth quarter depends on four factors:
First, the degree of global economic recovery, whether the international market demand can continue to increase effectively. Judging from the situation in the previous three quarters, the world economy has slowly recovered, but there are still twists and turns and complexity.
The second is the release of world steel production capacity, whether it can achieve market supply and demand balance. In the first half of the year, the world's steel production capacity was rapidly released, the equipment utilization rate reached over 80%, and the annual output of steel reached a record high. It is expected that the fourth quarter will show a downward trend.
Third, the degree of exchange rate changes. The state relaxed the flexible exchange rate of the exchange rate, the depreciation of the US dollar, and enhanced momentum for the appreciation of the ***. It will increase the cost of foreign currency exchange for steel products and whether China’s export products can achieve profitability.
Fourth, international trade protectionism and adopting a tariff barrier policy. Since 2010, some countries have violated WTO plans, engaged in trade protectionism, adopted tariff barrier policies, increased anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures against China and seriously damaged China’s foreign fair trade.
First, the degree of global economic recovery, whether the international market demand can continue to increase effectively. Judging from the situation in the previous three quarters, the world economy has slowly recovered, but there are still twists and turns and complexity.
The second is the release of world steel production capacity, whether it can achieve market supply and demand balance. In the first half of the year, the world's steel production capacity was rapidly released, the equipment utilization rate reached over 80%, and the annual output of steel reached a record high. It is expected that the fourth quarter will show a downward trend.
Third, the degree of exchange rate changes. The state relaxed the flexible exchange rate of the exchange rate, the depreciation of the US dollar, and enhanced momentum for the appreciation of the ***. It will increase the cost of foreign currency exchange for steel products and whether China’s export products can achieve profitability.
Fourth, international trade protectionism and adopting a tariff barrier policy. Since 2010, some countries have violated WTO plans, engaged in trade protectionism, adopted tariff barrier policies, increased anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures against China and seriously damaged China’s foreign fair trade.