The development of domestic photovoltaic industry should bid farewell to the development thinking of "big base"

The domestic PV power generation policy has gradually relied on distributed generation. This can be seen from the just-promulgated "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development", which will increase the current scale of the construction of rooftop power stations (representatives of distributed generation) by 20 times. However, some local governments are planning to accelerate the approval of large-scale ground-based photovoltaic power plant projects, indicating that the concept of “big-base” development of the photovoltaic industry still has a large market. From the perspective of the properties of the photovoltaic industry and the development experience of the international photovoltaic industry, the development of the photovoltaic industry is more suitable for the large-scale construction of rooftop power stations. This is enough to promote the large opening of the photovoltaic market, and relevant enterprises and electricity users can generally benefit. Like solar energy resources, solar energy has its own characteristics of intermittent and unstable, which determines that large-scale solar power generation will also encounter the problem of grid connection. In addition, compared to wind farms, large photovoltaic power plants are often built in deserts and Gobi areas that are more remote than wind farms, which are less likely to be covered by the grid. This determines that the photovoltaic power transmission problem is more difficult than the wind power delivery technology, and the cost of input is also greater. It is precisely because of the various unfavorable factors of solar power plants that Germany has abandoned the idea of ​​building a ground power station since the 1990s and has turned to a large-scale rooftop photovoltaic project. At present, 80% of the installed capacity of photovoltaic power in Germany comes from rooftop power stations, which also supports the German photovoltaic power generation to jump to 2% of its total domestic electricity in 10 years. The current proportion of photovoltaic power generation in China accounts for less than 0.1% of total power generation. As of the end of 2010, Germany's photovoltaic power generation installed capacity has occupied half of the world, and China only accounts for less than 3%. Similar situations include Spain, Italy and other countries, and their photovoltaic installed capacity accounts for nearly 10% of the world. It is the booming roof photovoltaics in these countries that has driven more than 90% of the market demand for PV companies in China. Throughout the country, the country has launched two rounds of large-scale photovoltaic power station bidding since 2009, and nearly 300,000 kilowatts of projects have not been successfully connected to the grid. Although starting from 2009, the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have launched a series of policy measures such as “Solar Roof Plan” and “Golden Sun Project”, and to some extent promoted the construction progress of rooftop PV power plants, but as of 2010 At the end of the year, rooftop PV accounted for only 28.8% of total PV installations. The rooftop photovoltaic power station encourages the generation of power users to use it on their own, and eliminates the worry of large-scale power generation. More importantly, when the cost of photovoltaic power generation is reduced to the same level as ordinary thermal power, users can not only reduce the cost of electricity consumption, but also sell excess power to the grid company for profit. As a result, domestic large and small rooftop power stations do not have to rely on state subsidies. In the past, the photovoltaic industry, which was often stalled due to insufficient subsidy funds, will continue to develop rapidly. According to many domestic PV power plant investors, the large-scale photovoltaic ground power station is currently being invested in the western part of China. Although the equipment supply is sufficient, the price is gradually lower, and the fixed feed-in tariff subsidy is relatively clear. However, the uncertainty of the grid connection after the completion of the power station still allows These companies cannot predict the return period and yield of power plant investments. Investing in a rooftop power station can achieve a return on investment that is several times higher than the investment of more than half of the ground station, and the return period is not calculated in years. The increase in investment income of photovoltaic power plants and the acceleration of the return period will be transmitted to the upstream, which will accelerate the profitability of equipment manufacturers including systems, components, batteries and silicon wafers. In this way, it is possible to digest the excess capacity of nearly 20 GW that has been accumulated in the hands of photovoltaic equipment manufacturers due to the sudden drop in demand in foreign markets this year, which will benefit all enterprises in the whole industry. The domestic PV industry has to go out of the current "cold winter" season. Only the fundamental policy that is expected to be launched on a large scale in the domestic market and the timely start of domestic market demand can only be promoted by vigorously developing rooftop photovoltaic power plants.

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