For the slowdown in the fourth quarter or even next year, there is consensus in the industry. More market participants believe that the turning point has already formed in April. In the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†of the machine tool industry, the output value of China's machine tool industry reached 800 billion yuan in 2015. Undoubtedly, the market downturn will be the first threshold for achieving this ambitious goal. The mainstream mentality of the market after the bearish market According to the information released by the China Machine Tool Industry Association, from January to June, the output value of metal processing machine tools showed a rapid growth year-on-year, while the production enterprises of different types of machine tools were different. Take its key enterprises as an example. There are more than a dozen companies with heavy-duty machine tools, ordinary gold-cutting machine tools and a few major ordinary presses, with negative growth year-on-year. The 7 small industry key enterprises (partial) of the Machine Tool Association added 3.7 billion yuan in new orders in June, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, but a decrease of 29.4%. According to the recent survey of more than 60 companies in the industry, most companies report that market demand information has decreased; orders for low-end products have declined significantly; orders for heavy-duty and large-scale machine tool products have shown a significant downward trend, with large-scale machine tool products being particularly prominent. Moreover, some companies have completed orders, users are not eager to pick up the goods, and even explicitly request delayed delivery. Local machine tool associations also said that the market growth rate has slowed down significantly since May, and there is even a downward trend. The market demand has dropped compared with the beginning of the year and even the same period in 2010. Hong Shaohua, president of the Fujian Machine Tool Industry Association, said: "Since the turning point occurred in June, the current machine tool market has shown a downward trend compared with 2010 and the first half of this year. The demand for the entire market has dropped." Zhang Zhiyong, secretary-general of Shandong Machine Tool Industry Association, also said that the growth rate of supporting parts such as functional components has slowed down due to the influence of machine tool manufacturers. The vice chairman of the Taizhou Machine Tool Association said: "From June to August, it was originally the 'off-season' of the manufacturing industry. The data should be more representative than the same period of the previous year. But this year, the domestic machine tool market is subject to price increases. Factors such as macroeconomic factors and price increases have more or less affected corporate orders.†A person in charge of the sales department of a private enterprise said: “The market reaction was very good from January to April this year, but the number of orders began to decrease from May. Only half of the previous order volume, but the market expectation for the whole year is still considerable." He also believes that the large and heavy machine tool market performance is relatively stable, and the sales of ordinary machine tools have declined significantly. Some domestic large-scale machine tool enterprises have completed orders throughout the year, and the production tasks are very saturated. It is a foregone conclusion to complete the expected growth throughout the year. However, it is worth noting that in 2011, high orders were mostly obtained when the company was operating at a high market level. Since July, new orders have also shown a downward trend. Although it does not affect the growth rate this year, most companies are already worried about the market next year and lower the market expectations for next year. Domestic and foreign economics and economics weaken investment Wu Bolin, executive vice president of China Machine Tool and Tool Industry Association, believes that due to the premature consumption generated by China's previous 4 trillion domestic demand, the uncertainty of the development trend of the international market, political turmoil in some countries The monetary policy adopted by the United States to solve the debt problem has caused the global inflationary pressure to increase, the initial effect of the country's macroeconomic regulation and other factors, and other factors, making China's machine tool market after nearly two years of rapid growth, this year, 5 New orders in June began to fall sharply, showing signs of slowing growth. Affected by many factors such as tightening monetary policy to curb inflation and changes in the development of major domestic user sectors, enterprises in the machine tool industry must pay close attention to changes in the market environment and find breakthroughs in maintaining their own development. First, we should pay attention to the scale of credit. In the first half of this year, the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio once a month. After the deposit reserve ratio of large commercial banks rose to a historical high of 21.5%, credit growth was strongly restrained. Recently, the forecasts issued by Shenyin Wanguo and Bank of Communications agreed that the credit increase in June was about 550 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, the amount of new credit in the first half of this year was 409.6 billion yuan, a decrease of about 500 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. Some companies are obviously tight in liquidity. Second, attention should be paid to changes in the main service areas of machine tools. Automotive field. After the two-year high-speed growth of automobile production and sales, the growth rate in the first half of this year dropped sharply, from the high-speed growth of the previous year to a moderate growth, and it showed a trend of falling month by month. Among them, the first year of April showed a year-on-year negative growth, and in May there was another negative growth, and slightly improved in June. In the first half of the year, China's automobile production and sales reached 9.56 million and 9,325,200 units, up 2.48% and 3.35% year-on-year. Its sales volume was 32% higher than the year-on-year growth rate of 2010, down 29%. Power generation equipment field. The hydropower and solar photovoltaic markets are still maintaining a strong momentum of development. However, after the outbreak of the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, the nuclear power project has not been “thawedâ€; although the wind power market is in the development stage, the market prospects are promising for a long time, but in order to solve the wind power development, heavy construction, heavy scale, light quality, light management, and wind power standards The construction of the relatively lagging problem, the National Energy Administration has issued a special emergency notice, tightening the power of approval of wind power. The field of ships. From January to June this year, the national shipbuilding completed 30.92 million DWT, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year. The new ship orders were 21.6 million DWT, down 9.2% year-on-year. By the end of June, the number of hand-held ships was 181.76 million DWT, down 1.4% from the same period of the previous year. , down 7.2% from the end of the previous year. In the case of a moderate growth in all of the above areas, what are the market drivers for the machine tool industry that continue to grow at a high rate? Relevant persons of the association believe that the investment inertia of the above-mentioned fields is not ruled out, which still drives the rapid development of the machine tool industry. However, as the market situation changes, the result will be to slow down the investment and progress of the next step. Enterprises should correctly understand the current market development situation. Only by maintaining a stable and rapid development trend, market demand can be relatively long-lasting. Finally, attention should be paid to the impact of ECFA on the market. The ECFA has been in operation for half a year, and the Machine Tool Association has been paying attention to its impact on the mainland machine tool industry. From the perspectives of lathes, insert planers, forgings, grinding machines (only open surface grinders), sawing machines and other branches, some The company is worried about this. Since the beginning of this year, especially in the first quarter, the market demand is still very strong, the company's orders are full, the products are in short supply, the mainland enterprises are mostly busy with daily production and operation, the mainland enterprises are not prepared for the impact of Taiwan's machine tools, and the machine tool market has an impact on Taiwan's machine tools. Not too strong. In fact, Taiwan’s imports of machine tools from the mainland have grown substantially. From January to June, the largest CNC lathe in the Jinchee machine tool, the import value increased by 45.5% compared with the same period of last year, and its impact on the mainland machine tool market is self-evident. At the same time, because ECFA has only been implemented for half a year, and more complex machine tool products have the characteristics of relatively long production cycle, depending on the product specifications, the products are from the blank (including the purchase of matching parts) to the product output, which is less than half a year. One year or more, that is, most of the sales in the first half of the year were products that were produced or invested at the end of the previous year, so it is difficult to distinguish the truth and authenticity of the mainland market demand for Taiwan products in a short period of time. For the above reasons, since the official implementation of ECFA, from the appearance, the impact on the mainland machine tool industry does not seem to be very obvious. However, in the long run, its impact on the development of the mainland machine tool industry must not be ignored. First, the main products of Taiwan's machine tools are mid-range CNC machine tools. The large-scale entry of Taiwan's machine tools will further reduce the market share of mainland mid-range CNC machine tools. Second, after the implementation of ECFA, the price advantage of the only remaining products in the mainland will cease to exist; Third, if the current situation of the machine tool industry is not considered in the new round of ECFA negotiations, the industrialization process of the mainland mid-range CNC machine tools, which was originally difficult to develop, will be further slowed down. The high-end CNC machine tools lack the basic support of mid-range CNC machine tools. The industrialization process is even more difficult and industrial security is threatened. Relevant persons of the association reminded that in the fourth quarter, enterprises should pay close attention to the market while preparing a positive response plan, and should make overall arrangements and rational application in various resources such as capital and production capacity of the enterprise; It is necessary to give full play to the strengths of the company, to form a differentiated core competitiveness, and to strive for survival and development opportunities in the ever-changing market competition.
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