On August 30th, the anti-dumping dispute over photovoltaic products between China and Germany (Europe), which was widely concerned, was swayed by the high-ranking officials led by the Chinese and German prime ministers. The two sides agreed to negotiate to solve the photovoltaic industry problem, which is the recent Sino-German (European) PV industry trade disputes triggered by anti-dumping investigations on PV products submitted by German PV companies. Since it is a German PV company that proposes an anti-dumping application against China, then the initiative should be in Germany or the EU, and China is on the passive side. So why is the German initiative to talk to China on the PV issue instead of China? Going to lobby in Europe? In fact, the reason is very simple. Germany and the European Union are pre-burying a pawn when they receive an application for anti-dumping investigations by PV companies. They may be clear, but it is very likely that it is not clear how important this piece is to China, so it has been Do not bear it. This time, I will come to China to test before accepting the application deadline for anti-dumping investigations. I really want to see how China reacts to this, especially the official response. China’s response is naturally fierce. From the request of PV companies to the full escort of governments at all levels, the central government has therefore assumed that anti-dumping investigation applications by German PV companies will jeopardize domestic PV companies and take PV issues into account. At the negotiating table of the German-Chinese summit, it was not unexpected that the German women’s prime minister had "committed to solve the photovoltaic industry problem." The author believes that the original anti-dumping investigation application of German PV companies may not be able to set off a big storm in Sino-German (European), but now with this commitment, my proposal is instead, the majority of PV companies, as soon as possible Be prepared to deal with the EU anti-dumping investigation. In other words, prepare for the negotiation table with the EU as soon as possible! Why? From the photovoltaic issue to the formal negotiating table of the Sino-German summit, the PV issue has become a killer in the EU's view of restricting other issues in China. Even if it didn't want to make a big move, it has already had to make a big move. 1. How come the PV issue? The direct reason is that German companies have filed anti-dumping investigation applications. But behind this German company is the US PV company. It is this photovoltaic company with the same name that has successfully applied for anti-dumping investigations in the US, blocking Chinese PV products. Now it is I want to burn the war to Europe. Will the EU agree to this? The possibility of the EU's promise is very small. Because the development of new energy sources, including photovoltaics, is not the core interest of the United States, but it is the strategic interests of the EU. If we trace the roots, China’s current large-scale PV industry scale is largely directed at the EU’s determination to develop renewable energy. Damage to China’s PV industry will also damage the EU’s new energy. Development and long-term strategy for a low carbon development blueprint. Therefore, American companies can have this intention, but EU companies have no such intentions. Then, the so-called German company’s application for anti-dumping investigation is a false proposition itself, and the EU cannot do anything that harms others. 2. Some analysts have noticed that the EU countries have gradually phased out market subsidies for photovoltaic products, which is considered to be unfavorable for Chinese PV companies or the EU to abandon Chinese PV companies. From the perspective of economics, the elimination of subsidies is to return the development and competition of the photovoltaic industry to the market itself. The government's withdrawal is a good thing for Chinese PV companies, because subsidies often take care of domestic production companies, and subsidies are eliminated. The impact of the company's business is relatively low. China's PV companies are the most competitive in the world, so they will only gain a larger market share from the elimination of subsidies, not the other way around. In this regard, the German and EU governments will anticipate the industrial development after the abolition of subsidies, and it is impossible to do the stupid thing of first removing subsidies and then protecting low-competitive enterprises. It is not necessary for Chinese companies to be unreliable on the EU market because of the lessons of the US market. 3. In the absence of obstacles in the fundamentals, the application of anti-dumping investigations by German companies is not the mainstream view of the EU, but economic issues can be politicized. This is the practice of the international community. Therefore, when China cares about PV issues, PV trade And economic issues have the potential to rise to political issues. Even if it will not end, the ups and downs of this issue can win the initiative and capital of the negotiation table for the EU. On the contrary, according to the above analysis, if China adopts a calm attitude, there is no way for Germany and the EU to put pressure on China on the PV issue. After all, China does not have any other good cards that restrict the EU and Germany at the negotiating table. The next question is, if China has taken the initiative to show its cards, including the possible measures against the other side, then we can expect Germany and the EU to really "negotiate to solve the photovoltaic industry problem"? If you can, haven't you negotiated already? What Germany and the EU need to really negotiate with China is how much Germany and the EU can afford without China's PV products. My suggestion is that if the EU anti-dumping Chinese PV products, China can suspend the supply of PV products to the EU. The way to accept partial anti-dumping duties and use Chinese wealth to subsidize the European and American markets is absolutely impossible.
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