The power equipment sector has benefited from the rapid growth of grid investment, especially UHV investment, from January to July, and has consistently outperformed the broader market. In the absence of any change in the target for the whole year, the slowdown in investment growth in the second half of the year is an established fact, but it will flow to the distribution network that is lower than expected in the first half of the year. In addition, the inflection point of the wind power industry is coming. The low-voltage electrical appliance industry benefits from the recovery of real estate and the drop of raw materials, which is also worthy of attention.
Next year or usher in the peak of distribution network investment. From January to July this year, grid investment increased by 17% year-on-year to 1,947 yuan. Such high growth rate was mainly due to the concentrated delivery of UHV in the first half of the year. We believe that it will be impossible to maintain high-speed growth of more than double digits in the second half of the year, and the investment structure will also be maintained. However, we expect that the distribution network investment will usher in a peak next year, and the investment ratio will increase substantially, which will benefit distribution network equipment companies.
Distribution network automation construction will usher in the peak. The Standing Committee of the State Council will accelerate the development of distribution networks and smart grids as the focus of future work. Over the past few years, after the distribution network automation pilot project and demonstration project, the technical scheme for distribution network automation has gradually matured, and there is the possibility of accelerating promotion across the country. Future distribution automation investment is expected to continue to grow rapidly. Before the State Grid plans to reach 2015, its investment in distribution automation will reach 40 billion yuan. In the past, the annual investment was only 2-3 billion, and the market has the imagination to grow exponentially.
The wind power industry ushered in a turning point. China's wind power industry has experienced "great leap forward" development in the past few years, resulting in difficulties such as grid connection and frequent accidents. The industry entered a low point in 11 and 12 years. However, there were several signs in the end of the 12th and 13th years that led us to judge that the wind power industry had bottomed out, including stabilizing lifting capacity, doubling the number of tenders, resuming the improvement, and the price of wind turbines rising. The industry will usher in steady growth in the next few years.
The low-voltage electrical appliance industry benefited from the recovery of real estate and the decline of metals. The area of ​​construction of the real estate industry regained positive growth in the first half of 13 years, and the completed area has also maintained a stable growth rate, which is favorable for the demand of the low-voltage electrical industry.
From January to August, the prices of major raw materials, copper and silver, fell sharply. The US exit from QE is expected to continue to drive down raw material prices. It is expected that prices will remain weak in the second half of the year, which will benefit the gross profit margin of the low-voltage electrical industry.
The Chinese government has formulated a development plan for the high-voltage switch industry during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Among them, the focus has been on strengthening the development of intelligent switches, and its technological development has also been related to the intelligentization of electrical components.
During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, China's high-voltage switch industry should take the opportunity of building a strong smart grid and rely on UHV AC and DC power transmission projects to enhance its independent innovation capabilities, greatly increase the level of intelligent switchgear, and promote environmental protection and energy conservation. Emission-reducing equipment; UHV transmission technology and advanced electrical equipment and integration technology should be the key areas of development. Intensive research should be conducted on 1000kV UHV transmission and key equipment and core technologies to accelerate the complete localization of AC and DC high-voltage equipment; and Advanced research on advanced electrical equipment and integration technology, striving to achieve key breakthroughs in key technologies for superconducting power equipment; striving to promote optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, further enhancing the overall technical level and international competitiveness of the industry, and striving to realize high-voltage switching industry from large to strong The transformation.
At present, the replacement of electrical products is very frequent, and often in a short time, many old-style product series can be eliminated. While the electrical components are being intelligentized, high-voltage switches are also continuing to advance in the direction of intelligence. The high-voltage switchgear products that are currently in the leading position in the world have trip circuit disconnection monitoring, action time detection, contact part detection, spring energy storage time detection and other functions. These integrated functions constitute an intelligent high-voltage switch.
During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, large-scale key enterprises in the high-voltage switch industry have further conducted in-depth technical research on the core technology and key components of UHV switchgear, and achieved the goal of UHV equipment based on domestic and independent R&D and full realization of localization. Combining the construction of smart grids, digital substations, and distribution automation, we will vigorously promote the intelligentization of switchgear. Since the intelligent technology of switchgear is still a weak point in the industry, it is recommended that it be developed first and then easily. For example: firstly develop intelligent circuit breakers for distribution networks, and then develop switchgear for intelligent distribution networks, smart grid GIS, GCB and others. Smart components, etc., focus on the overall integration of switch primary equipment and secondary control and the development of interface technologies.
The global semiconductor market is expected to take place in 2014 at Fortune City. Emerging markets continue to heat up demand for low- and mid-priced smart phones. In addition to inspiring relevant chip developers to step up research and development of higher-cost solutions, they also tilted 16/14 nm fin transistors (FinFETs) and 3D ( 3D) The investment boom in new technologies such as flash memory will highlight the strong growth momentum of the semiconductor industry next year.
Yu Dinglu, vice president of Applied Materials and president of Taiwan, said that in terms of unit shipments, the growth of today's high-priced smart phones has indeed been inferior to that of low-to-medium-rate phones, prompting mobile phone brand owners to launch more affordable products with lower prices. He hoped to take advantage of this to attack emerging markets such as China, Russia, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America, which will in turn stimulate the growth of the output value of the semiconductor industry.
Yu Dinglu further pointed out that in the past when personal computers became popular, computer sales were based on "households", so sales growth was limited; today's smart phone sales are based on "people", and the growth power is naturally relatively stronger and can be created at the same time. More semiconductor production, packaging and design needs. There is no doubt that smart phones are currently leading the global semiconductor market, especially the future of low-priced smart phones is igniting the fiery new business opportunities in the semiconductor market in 2014.
As low- and mid-priced smart phones have become the new main battlefield for mobile phone brand owners, various players must launch new products that are “nobility and not expensive†before they have the opportunity to stand out in the fierce market. Therefore, semiconductor wafer foundry and packaging The industry is also working hard to develop technologies such as 16/14 nm and 3D flash memory, and further enhance the performance of semiconductor devices and materials, and assist wafer makers in creating high-efficiency low- and mid-priced smart phone solutions.
In fact, the biggest difference between the mobile computing era and the personal computer era in the past is the demand for power consumption. Taking the mobile phone application processor (AP) as an example, its operation requires approximately 2 watts (W) of power, and the temperature must be maintained below 35 degrees Celsius before it is suitable for consumers to hold in their hands; although the computing power of the notebook computer is Four times that of the application processor, but it requires 50 watts of power, and the operating temperature is 80 degrees. It is obvious that the semiconductor industry will have to reduce the power consumption of the transistor if it wants to place a card in the mobile device business.
Yu Dinglu added that the new generation of 16/14nm FinFET and 3D flash memory will be the best solution to improve transistor performance and bring more opportunities to the semiconductor equipment industry; among them, 16/14nm FinFET will be available To increase the market size of the equipment industry by 25 to 35%, the flash memory will also increase its market size by 25% to 35% due to the shift of process technology from 2D to 3D.
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