On the 11th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the list of enterprises that eliminated backward production capacity in 2011, involving 2,255 enterprises in 18 industries, and said that the elimination of backward production capacity will be subject to social supervision. The backward production capacity requirements in the list will be completely eliminated before the end of 2011. Among them, the cement is 153.27 million tons, involving 782 enterprises, and the flat glass is 29.507 million weight boxes, involving 45 enterprises. In terms of provinces and cities, the cement industry in Hebei, Liaoning, Sichuan, Shanxi and other provinces has a heavier task of eliminating backward production capacity. First, the elimination of outdated production capacity, cement and glass are more than expected. The 2011 announcement will eliminate 153.27 million tons of cement backward production capacity, accounting for 8.24% of the output in 2010, an increase of about 46 million tons from the 2010 phase-out, exceeding the previous Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The planned target of 133.55 million tons is about 14.8%. The repeated over-expectation of the backward elimination shows the determination of the central and local governments. In terms of regions, Hebei, Liaoning, Sichuan, Shanxi, and Zhejiang were heavily tasked, with 26.88 million tons, 16.199 million tons, 14.497 million tons, 12.61 million tons, and 10.154 million tons, respectively, significantly higher than last year's required phase-out. Among them, the new capacity in Hebei and Zhejiang is less than the backward elimination, which will significantly improve the marginal supply and demand in the future. This year, flat glass plans to eliminate backward production capacity of about 29 million heavy boxes (mainly backward technology such as Gefa glass, flat pull, and lead), accounting for 4.59% of the output in 2010, and has greatly improved compared with the 6 million heavy boxes last year. . We estimate that there are still about 57 million heavy boxes of such backward production capacity, and this phase-out exceeds half of the total backward production capacity, indicating that the country's supply of glass is more stringent. Second, the relationship between supply and demand has improved, and large enterprises have more opportunities to maintain the “recommended†rating of cement. It is estimated that the new cement production capacity will be about 150 million tons in 2011, and the elimination will be about 153 million, due to the large new capacity last year (315 million). Tons), some of the production capacity was released in the first half of the year, so we saw that the cement industry's cumulative output from January to May this year was 671.79 million tons, an increase of 17.77% year-on-year, and it still maintained rapid growth. Eliminating the backward and exceeding expectations will further improve the future marginal supply and demand of the industry, and will benefit more next year. We maintain the “optimistic†industry. At present, the backward production capacity of large enterprises, especially listed companies, has been basically eliminated. The target of this backward production capacity is still mainly small enterprises. Large enterprises will benefit significantly in this round of elimination, and the industry concentration will be further improved. In addition, from the regional perspective, Hebei, Shanxi, Liaoning, Sichuan and Zhejiang provinces with heavier tasks, Hebei, Shanxi and Liaoning are the key layout areas of Jidong Cement, and the benefits of Jidong will be more obvious. According to the degree of benefit of elimination, the recommendations are maintained: Jidong Cement, Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Jiangxi Cement. Among them, Jidong Cement is also a variety we look forward to next year. In terms of glass, the supply policy of the glass industry has been relatively loose in history, and its implementation is not as good as cement. From the perspective of the past six months, the industry's policies have become stricter. Due to the relatively small backward production capacity of the glass industry (relative to cement), the market concentration is relatively low (relative to cement), and the short-term effectiveness of eliminating backwardness is not as good as cement, but we are seeing that the increasingly strict changes in policies are expected to continue to improve the supply and demand relationship of the industry. Maintain recommended CSG A and AVIC Sanxin.
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