First, the domestic steel market continued to decline, rebounded 50 yuan / ton; North China, South China, South Central stability-based, with the increase in project start-up, inventory decline, the basis of stable and stable price increases; Southwest high The situation of the price was burst, the price was basically lowered to the price level before the explosion; the market in the northwest was steadily rising. In general, the increase in demand, the reduction in market inventories, the narrowing of spreads across the country, and the stable price of steel mills (some of which are raised slightly by factory prices) will play a positive role in stabilizing market prices.
Medium plate market: After most of the mid-plate market prices stabilized only for the first week of the month, they began to decline again.
The magnitude of the decline is still relatively small. The East China market has been squeezed by the low price of imported medium board and the shrinking sales of the market, and the market price has been the lowest in the country. 6mm market price in East China is about 3540-3600 yuan/ton, 14-2
The price of 5mm medium plate is about 3250-3380 yuan/ton, and the lowest price of medium plate in Wuxi area; the price of 6mm medium plate in other areas is still maintained at 3800 yuan/ton, the shortage of thin gauge medium plate resources is relatively scarce, 14-25mm medium plate The market price basically ranges from 3450-3700 yuan/ton, among which the Chengdu region has the highest performance at 3650 yuan/ton or more; the original situation of gradually increasing the market price from the east to the west has changed to the medium plate price with East China as the leader. Basin-like distribution. From the inventory analysis, in addition to the East China market, the pressure on other markets is not large, resulting in the current pressure is the main factor is that high prices lead to demand can not be enlarged, the market is sluggish, coupled with the impact of imported board and dealer mentality Change is the main factor causing the decline in market prices, but due to the fact that the profits of the mid-plate in steel mills exceed the normal level, especially with other common carbon products such as wire rods and rebars, the spread is still relatively large, and the performance in the sheet environment is poor. In fact, the decline in the mid-table price has become a matter of course.
Hot-rolled coil market: The market took a downward trend in March, and the performance of the market in this downturn has become increasingly chaotic, showing that the market dealers and steel mills are powerless to the current situation, and the market mentality has fallen to the bottom, April The convening of the Coiled Plate Manufacturers Coordinating Meeting on the 10th had little impact on the market, but the local market has actually increased the market downgrade rate. In the western region, the market price has declined slightly, and the 3.0mm price is above 3,000 yuan/ton. The East China market continues to lead the decline in the hot rolling market. Prices in Shanghai and Wuxi markets have fallen to 2,800-2,850 yuan.
Around the level of tons, from the beginning of March to the present day, the market price has fallen by a large margin. East China-Shanghai is the fuse, and a large number of imported coils arrive at a centralized level, affecting the supply and demand relationship in some areas and time, and adding downstream industries to the At present, the rejection of high prices, the panic of dealers and other reasons, the prices plummeted, and the price fell by 700 yuan/ton in 50 days. Under the spread of this situation, although other mainland stocks are not large, they look at the “plate marketâ€. Under the influence of “East China,†it has also rapidly declined. The domestic factory prices of various coil manufacturers are inversely related to the market prices. Although some manufacturers have introduced policies such as preservation of value, the upside down is slightly smaller, but the market price has fallen sharply in a short period of time.
The trend of late-stage market prices, especially people's psychology, will leave a heavy mark.
Second, the domestic market performance of key markets:
North China: Market prices fell sharply due to demand, East China market, and imported resources. Beijing
The market price of 3.0mm coils dropped from 3100 yuan/ton to 2900-2950 yuan/ton, and the market price in Tianjin dropped to 288
0-2920 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang prices dropped to 3,000 yuan / ton. Coil inventories in the North China market are at a low level. The trading volume in the medium board market is small and the market is deserted. Beijing 6mm mid-plate market price is 3800 yuan/ton, 12-25mm medium-plate price is 3550-3600 yuan/ton, and decline rate is 30 yuan/ton; Tianjin market Tianmao 6mm medium plate market price is 3800 yuan
/ Ton, 20mm medium board 3450-3480 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang market 14-25mm medium board price in 3550-3600 yuan
/Ton. The building materials market is stable. Due to the gradual increase in project construction, the price of wire drawing increases, inventory decreases, and the price is stable. Beijing Pu line 2550-2570 yuan / ton, high line 2580-2600 yuan / ton, large rebar market price in 2
640-2670 yuan/ton, Tianjin Pu line price is 2570-2590 yuan/ton, high-line price is 2620-2640 yuan/
About tons, large thread price 2650-2670 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang market prices stable, high line 2620-2630 yuan / ton, large thread 2670-2700 yuan / ton.
East China: The market for hot rolled coils continued to decline. However, the price declines gradually decreased in mid-April, and the high import volume and domestic steel mills' countermeasures have caused a serious imbalance in market sentiment. 3.0mm*125
The price of 0*C volume has dropped to RMB 2800-2850/ton from the highest 3550-3600 yuan/ton, reaching a price of 700 yuan
/ Ton or so, Wuxi market prices have basically dropped to this level, Nanjing market prices are slightly higher at 2850-2900 yuan
/ Ton or so. The mid-plate market price is located at the lowest price in China, and the joint effect of thin plates is obvious. The spread between thin-gauge and thick-gauge mid-sized plates is reduced. The 14-25mm middle plate in the Shanghai market is at 3330-3360 yuan/ton, and the lower plate market price in Wuxi is 14-25mm. Has fallen to 3,250 yuan / ton, the Nanjing market due to very little inventory, the price is slightly higher, 14-25mm market price at 3350-3380 yuan / ton, dealers lack of confidence in the market outlook, not to purchase. The price of the overall building materials market in East China has rebounded by RMB 30-50/ton under the stable and active operation strategy of distributors. Of course, the price rebound has a significant relationship with the apparent decline in the inventory of the building materials market, which will have positive effects on the stable development of the national building materials market. Influence. The market price of Shanghai's rebar rose to around RMB 2500-2550/ton, and there was no change in the market price of the high-line market.
In 2600-2620 yuan / ton, the general line in 2550-2570 yuan / ton. Nanjing wire rebar prices are stable,
The inventory is small, about 20,000 tons, the price of large rebar is about 2570-2600 yuan / ton, high line 2630-2660 yuan
/ Ton or so, the general line price of 2600-2620 yuan / ton, about one month of maintenance of the Nanjing Steel high line, in addition to the Ma Steel new high line to be achieved, the stability of wire rod.
Central South Region: The impact of the Zhengzhou coil market in the East China market, the pace of price decline has not stopped for a moment, 3.0mm market price in the 2930-2970 yuan / ton, dealers cashing in a strong psychological; Guangzhou coil market is basically synchronized with East China The imported resources have a severe impact on the market, and the market inventory is much higher than the same period. The market price of 3.0mm hot-rolled coils is 2870-2920 yuan/ton. The medium plate market is stable, but there is not enough market confidence, Guangzhou 14-
The transaction price of 20mm medium plate market is 3500-3550 yuan/ton, Zhengzhou 14-25mm 3550-3600 yuan/ton. The stability of building materials, including the Zhengzhou rebar market rose slightly under the Angang Steel prices. The Zhengzhou market is well stocked and stocks are declining. The prices of large rebars are at 2,560-2,580 yuan per ton, the high-line market is at 2,580-2,600 yuan per ton, and the general line market price is at 2,560 yuan per ton. The price of the building materials market in Guangzhou is stable. The original market rumors that there may be concentrated arrivals may not have been found. The transaction price in the general market is around 2,680 yuan/ton, and the high-line price is 2700-2730 yuan/ton.
The market price of Tangshan Iron and Steel 16-25mm large thread is around RMB 2780/ton, the price of Handan Iron and Steel is relatively high, and the bar production line of Handan Iron and Steel 5
Preparing for maintenance in the month will play a positive role in the stability of the market.
In the western region: The price of the coiled plate market has declined, but it is much higher than that in the central and central regions. The inventory is small, and the impact of the card steel is not small. Chengdu 3.0mm price is around 3300 yuan/ton, and Xi’an market price is down. 3.0mm market price
3100-3150 yuan / ton; Lanzhou 3-6mm under the poor open flat at 3100-3150 yuan / ton. The mid-plate market is stable, but the downstream industry is obviously watching and the price may decline at any time. The price of Xi'an 14-20mm medium plate market is
3520-3550 yuan / ton. Lanzhou's market resources are monopolized by the Jiuquan Steel Corporation, but prices have begun to decline due to the impact of the environment, 1
The 4-25mm mid-plate market price is 3570-3600 yuan/ton. The market price in the Chengdu market has steadily dropped, with the 14-25mm medium board at 3650-3700 yuan/ton. The performance of the building materials market was mixed. The Xi’an market was stable after the early rise. The Lanzhou market was partially drained to the southwest because of the flow of resources. The inventory dropped sharply and the price rose. Chengdu and Chongqing’s sharp rises disappeared in mid-to-late March, and the inventory increased. The price of maintaining a reasonable price is clearly motivated. Xi'an high-line market price of 2700-2720 yuan / ton, 16-25mm rebar market price of 2630-2650 yuan / ton, Lanzhou building materials prices have a significant increase, the general market price of 2600 yuan / ton, the high-line market price is At around RMB 2,640/ton, the market price for 18-20mm rebar is RMB 2660-2680/ton, which is about RMB 30-50/ton.
Third, the later analysis:
1. International market: 1) International economic environment. The speed of economic growth in the world’s major developed countries and regions will be lower than originally estimated, and only a few countries, such as China, will have higher growth rates than those predicted in September last year.
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has just published a "World Economic Outlook" report, said this year's report that this year's US economic growth rate is expected to be 2.2%, lower than last year's 2.4%, while lowering the forecast than last fall 0.4%. The main problem facing the U.S. economy is that the U.S. has brought a lot of uncertainties to the war waged by Iraq. In addition, the U.S. economy also faces problems such as weak labor market, depressed investment confidence, declining household assets, and weakened personal spending support for economic growth. The economic growth in the euro area, especially Germany, was disappointing in the second half of last year. The outlook for economic recovery this year is still not optimistic. The euro area’s growth rate is expected to be only 1.1% this year, 1.2 percentage points lower than last year’s September forecast. At present, the major difficulties faced by the euro zone, apart from the lack of investment confidence, will not continue to lead to sluggish economic recovery. The prices of goods and services in Japan have fallen for four consecutive years. This is not the case in industrialized countries in the past half century.
The dim economic outlook urgently needs the Japanese government to take measures to reverse the deflation situation. Japan’s economic growth rate this year is only 0.8%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the original estimate. The report pointed out that last year, the economic growth in Asia other than Japan was impressive, with a growth rate of more than 6%. It is expected that the growth rate in the next two years will still be as high as 6.3% and 6.5%. Among them, China's growth rate is 7.5% for two years, which is higher than the original estimate.
However, one of the important pillars of Asian economic growth is export. Therefore, the slowdown in global economic growth is expected to have a negative impact on the economies of Asian countries. The continued weakness in domestic demand in major industrial countries has led to stagnant industrial production and slow growth in world trade. In addition, the substantial increase in the United States’ fiscal deficit in the coming years and its possible impact on the global economy and the decline in the U.S. dollar exchange rate are also worthy of attention.
2) International steel market: The international steel CRU price index reached the highest point in history in mid-March this year.
Due to the large fluctuations in the prices of thin plates in China, the index began to decline. In January and February of 2003, crude steel production increased by 10.7% and 8.8% respectively over the same period of last year, and continued to maintain a relatively high level of growth. However, from a month-on-month comparison, crude steel production fell by 1.9% in January compared with January. As of February this year, the import price of sheet metal in the Far East has doubled compared to the same period last year. In such a large increase, nearly one-third of the growth occurred in January and February of this year. It is conceivable how the price of sheet metal in the Far East rose sharply in the past two months, resulting in a "bubble" of 3 The month began to burst and prices fell sharply. The rest of the world performed well. Under the dual influence of the increase in scrap prices and the decrease in imports, the US market has announced that it will increase the price of thin slabs by US$20-30/short ton. However, the market demand for thin slabs continues to be sluggish and inventory levels continue to rise. Recovery will be suppressed; the European sheet metal market has continued to maintain its upward trend over the past year or so, but demand for sheet metal remains weak. The implementation of the latest round of price increase plan also depends mainly on the continued limited production and sluggish import volume of manufacturers. European producers will increase the transaction price in the second quarter by 10-20 euros/ton. The slab market remained strong, and prices in most markets continued to rise. However, due to the drop in Asian hot coil prices, there are signs that the price of slabs has approached the peak price and started to decline slightly.
2. Domestic market: 1) Economic environment: In the first quarter, China’s economic growth was in a good state, and GDP growth was 9.9%. Industrial production continued to maintain a full and rapid growth. Investment, consumption, and exports were still the troika driving economic growth.
The positive growth of the consumer price level indicates that China’s internal needs have further expanded. A. Rapid growth in industrial production and stable sales rate. In the first quarter, the country’s industrial production showed rapid growth. The industrial added value of industrial enterprises above designated size has achieved an accumulated value of 834.3 billion yuan, an increase of 17.2% over the same period of the previous year (among which the value added in the month of March 313
400 million yuan, an increase of 16.9% year-on-year, which is 6.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the same period of last year. Heavy industry production has grown significantly faster than light industry. B. Investment, consumption, and export “troika†are still the main driving force. First, investment in fixed assets has accelerated noticeably. 1
Plate building materials market
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