Abstract Every winter, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee holds a meeting to analyze and study the economic work of the following year, which indicates that the Central Economic Work Conference will be held soon. On the 5th of this month, the Politburo meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2015, in addition to releasing this warning signal, is also on 2015...
Every winter, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee convened a meeting to analyze and study the economic work of the following year, which indicates that the Central Economic Work Conference will be held soon. On the 5th of this month, the Politburo meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2015, in addition to releasing this warning signal, also addressed the “key year of comprehensive deepening reform†and “the year of comprehensive promotion of the rule of law†in 2015. Has the finishing touch. Regarding the situation in 2014, the meeting made a judgment of “achieving sustained and steady economic and social development, and the overall economic development situation is goodâ€; and for the adjustment of the economy next year, the meeting proposed: continue to persist in striving for stability and persist in improving Focusing on the quality and efficiency of economic development, actively adapting to the new normal of economic development, keeping the economic operation in a reasonable range, putting the transfer mode adjustment structure into a more important position, paying close attention to reform and tackling the key, highlighting innovation drive, strengthening risk prevention and control, and strengthening people's livelihood security. To promote sustained and healthy economic development and social harmony and stability.
An official interviewed by the “First Financial Daily†said that the overall structure of the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference will be more ambitious. It will not only explain and deploy the economic policies and reform ideas under the “new normal†for the first time, but will also implement Major economic strategies such as the Belt and Road Initiative have an important "node" nature. In addition, a series of major reform measures involving foreign trade, finance, finance and taxation, and people's livelihood will be intensively launched.
It is worth noting that in the afternoon, the Politburo conducted the nineteenth collective study on accelerating the construction of a free trade zone. Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, pointed out that it is necessary to promote a higher level of opening up to the outside world, speed up the implementation of the free trade zone strategy, accelerate the construction of a new open economic system, and take the initiative to open the initiative of economic development and win the international competition.
"Steady progress" unchanged
Prior to the symposium of non-party members held by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in Zhongnanhai on December 1, Xi Jinping pointed out that the focus of stability should be on stabilizing economic operations, and the focus is on deepening reform, opening up, and restructuring. Stabilize and integrate organically and promote each other.
After the "new normal" becomes a consensus, the direction of the future central policy is considered to have new changes. The 5th meeting made it clear that we must continue to strive for stability. To be specific, we must maintain a stable growth and balance the structure, adhere to the overall thinking of a stable macro policy, a micro policy, and a social policy, and maintain macroeconomic continuity and stability.
The aforementioned official said that the background of the current three-phase superposition (the growth rate enters the shift period, the structural adjustment faces the pain period, and the previous stimulus policy digest period) is both a risk and a challenge, which requires China to balance the “stable†and “into†relationship. He believes that the two are not contradictory, but interdependent - only a stable development can support better reforms, and only positive reforms can promote steady development.
In addition, the attention to the next year's economic growth rate will also be one of the priorities of this Central Economic Work Conference. The Politburo meeting proposed to keep the economy running in a reasonable range. The meeting stressed that China has entered a new normal of economic development, with good economic resilience, sufficient potential and large space for maneuvering, which provides favorable conditions for the sustainable and healthy development of the economy next year and in the future.
Recently, major institutions have launched economic data forecasting research reports. With the increase in official release signals, the agency has lowered its GDP forecast for next year from around 7.5% to around 7.0%.
At the previously informal APEC Leaders' Meeting, President Xi Jinping pointed out that China's economy will shift from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth when expounding the definition of China's economic "new normal." An official think tank explained to the newspaper that there is no obvious limit to the high-speed and medium-speed economic growth in the world. However, from international experience, if the economic target is set at 7% next year, it will definitely meet the standards of medium and high speed.
It is worth noting that the Politburo meeting also clearly stated that it is necessary to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. After the central bank [microblogging] launched its first interest rate cut in two years last month, many analysts believe that there may be multiple interest rate cuts next year. Based on the "stable" signal released by the Politburo meeting, the chief economist of the Bank of Communications, Lian Ping [Weibo], said that there is unlikely to cut interest rates several times in a row, but in order to adjust to the adjustment of the loan-to-deposit ratio, the possibility of RRR reduction Very sexual.
On the macroeconomic front, the Politburo meeting also clearly pointed out that it is necessary to release the potential of domestic demand, promote the balance of import and export, introduce foreign investment and balance foreign investment, and gradually achieve a basic balance of international payments.
“Belt and Road†and the Free Trade Zone Strategy
The intensification of changes in the domestic and international situation has spawned the formation of a number of major Chinese strategies. A major-level scholar recently told the China Business News that the strategic deployment in recent years may determine the development trajectory of the next few decades. In the context of the gradual disappearance of traditional dividends, China must “early start†before It is possible to be more calm in the future development of international cooperation.
The Political Bureau meeting clearly stated that it is necessary to optimize the spatial pattern of economic development, continue to implement the overall regional development strategy, promote the “One Belt and One Roadâ€, the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the construction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, actively and steadily promote urbanization, and persistently promote energy conservation and emission reduction. conservation of ecosystem.
Among them, the “One Belt and One Road†with more international strategic significance has attracted much attention and is considered to be one of the “emphasis†of the Central Economic Work Conference. Guan Qingyou, vice president of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, believes that the “Belt and Road†is China’s most important national strategy in the medium and long term. Because this strategy means that China's big country diplomacy will form an all-round open pattern, while regional coordination and industrial transformation and upgrading will accelerate.
Most of the “Belt and Road†are emerging economies and developing countries with a total population of about 4.4 billion and a total economic output of about 21 trillion US dollars, accounting for 63% and 29% of the world respectively. Zhang Yansheng, secretary-general of the Academic Committee of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in an interview with the Xinhua News Agency that in the construction of the “Belt and Roadâ€, China will focus on resource-based industries and labor-intensive industries, and develop energy sources, resources outside the market, and markets outside the countries along the route. The “three heads out†industry, in turn, drives the export of products, equipment and services.
It is worth noting that the construction of an "open new economic system" has been put on the agenda, and accelerating the implementation of the free trade zone strategy will also become an important part of China's new round of opening up.
In the 19th collective study on speeding up the construction of free trade zones held by the Politburo on the afternoon of the 5th, Xi Jinping stressed that it is necessary to speed up the implementation of the free trade zone strategy, accelerate the construction of a new open economy system, and take the initiative to open up the economy to take the initiative. And win the initiative of international competition.
This strategic layout is also closely related to the “Belt and Roadâ€. Xi Jinping pointed out that to strengthen the top-level design and plan a big chess game, it is necessary to build a more important situation, and gradually build a network of free trade zones based on the surrounding areas, radiating the “Belt and Road†and facing the world, and actively participate in the countries along the “Belt and Road†and The establishment of free trade zones in the region has enabled China to cooperate more closely with countries along the route, to facilitate exchanges and to integrate interests.
"Deep reorganization" 7 meetings release policy signal
With the approach of “two doubling†in 2020 (gross domestic product and per capita income of urban and rural residents doubling from 2010), various reforms are particularly urgent. In addition to the macro-strategy, the Politburo meeting also proposed to promote the simultaneous development of new industrialization, informationization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization; stabilize the output of grain and major agricultural products, and accelerate the transformation of agricultural development methods.
The meeting also made it clear that we should pay more attention to ensuring basic livelihood, pay more attention to the lives of low-income people, pay more attention to the stability of the overall situation of the society, and pay special attention to doing a good job in employment and poverty alleviation. We must unswervingly push forward the reform of the economic system and introduce existing annual characteristics. Reform measures that are conducive to long-term institutional arrangements, improve the quality of economic system reform programs, and do a good job in economic system reform measures.
A political and economic observer told the newspaper that the path of reform of the central government should be referred to the more effective central comprehensive deepening reform leadership group (hereinafter referred to as the "deep reform group") meeting. Since the establishment of the deep reform group on January 22 this year, seven meetings have covered some of the areas mentioned in this Politburo meeting. From the perspective of public information, if these reform proposals are reviewed, it will almost mean to enter the “countdown to launchâ€, which is usually considered at the Politburo meeting after the deep reorganization meeting, or directly through the State Council and the two offices. .
According to public information, the topics covered by the previous deep-reform conference include: deepening the overall plan for fiscal and taxation reform, further promoting the reform of the household registration system, the compensation system for central enterprises, the admissions system, the integration of traditional media and emerging media, and the right to operate rural land. The circulation of funds, the cooperation of farmers' shares will give the pilot reform of the collective assets and shares, deepen the management reform of the central government's science and technology plan (special funds, funds, etc.), the progress of the China (Shanghai) free trade pilot zone and the promotion of the pilot experience of replicable reforms, and strengthen Chinese characteristics. New think tank construction, etc.
The seventh meeting of the deep reform group, which just ended, involved five major areas of land reform, culture, civil service, anti-corruption and justice. A total of four "opinions" were considered and two programs were considered and approved.
The reporter found that about two-thirds of the above opinions and proposals are in the state of deliberation and approval, which means that next year will be the time when these opinions and plans are refined into policies and intensively introduced.
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