Strong plastic still need to look at the face of supply and demand

Since February, in the resonance of multiple positive factors, plastic (9645, 245.00, 2.61%) prices have shown a sharp rise.

Industry insiders said that the renegade funds, the pre-holiday downstream pre-stocking, some petrochemical manufacturers announced after-year maintenance plan, as well as the market's macroeconomic policies and other factors jointly boosted the period price of plastics. The future price of plastic futures will depend on the supply and demand situation. It is expected that the market price will remain high after the rebound.

Multi-factor resonance "lifts up" period price

Since the crude oil price rebounded on January 29, 2015, the domestic plastic futures price has started to continue its rising price. As of yesterday's close, the main force of plastic ** 1505 contract closed at 9645 yuan / ton, up 245 yuan or 2.61%. Since February, the contract has risen by nearly 1,500 yuan or more than 18%, becoming the leading product in the domestic commodity market.

Xie Long, a chemical researcher at Guotai Junan, said that the recent strong plastics price performance was mainly affected by four factors: First, oil prices rebounded sharply in February after continuing to decline, and there were many hunter-trading funds in the market; This year, the Spring Festival is relatively late this year and immediately enters the peak season of demand in March. Therefore, the pre-holiday downstream stocking boosted the market demand; Third, some petrochemical manufacturers announced the after-service maintenance plan. It is expected that the spot supply will be available after March and April. The decrease has somewhat exacerbated the sentiment of market speculation; finally, the market’s macroeconomic policies are relaxed, and interest rate cuts and adjustments have helped boost the commodity market.

"Despite the ferocious rise in plastics price since February, there are certain differences in the factors affecting price increases before the holiday and in the post-holiday period and the performance of the disk." Analysts believe that with the Spring Festival as the boundary, the price increase in the early Spring Festival is mainly due to benefit from the downstream The replenishment demand was spawned and the spot transaction was good. After the Spring Festival, due to the lack of clear news guidance in the spot market, the market has not fully recovered, and the petrochemical inventories are not as expected, the overall inventory is slightly over 900,000 tons, which is within the controllable range of petrochemicals. This factor has helped the bulls continue to push. High price momentum. In general, the rise of this wave of prices is mainly due to the fact that capital has played a leading role. In addition to the introduction of the central bank’s policy of raising interest rates on the last Saturday, the market’s expectation of more easing liquidity has brought about market sentiment. Certainly boost.

From the current situation of the spot market, with the post-holiday downstream and traders returning to the market one after another, the overall market situation has gradually improved.

Xie Long said that from the overall supply and demand situation, the downstream has gradually entered the peak season, but due to long holidays, petrochemical companies and coal chemicals accumulated more inventories, together with import sources concentrated in Hong Kong in March, the market supply is guaranteed. From the current pattern of supply and demand, ** has appeared to be overbought, and the increase in prices has come from rising speculative sentiment. “The performance of the spot market is still a key factor. If the performance of the spot market declines, and sales are poor, market speculation will cool down, speculative funds will evaporate quickly, and industry funds may increase short hedge operations. However, if spot is still strong, the resonance between fundamentals and capital will further increase the price. Overall, the outlook will depend on the acceptability of spot prices by downstream processing companies."

After the market high probability of high turbulence

For the afternoon market, Yin Quxi, a researcher at Galaxy, said that as crude oil has shown signs of bottoming out and polyethylene producers plan to conduct centralized maintenance in the spring of 2015, new production capacity will be mainly concentrated in the second half of the year and With less impact, polyethylene is in a much more hypetic atmosphere. At this time, the risk of doing more polyethylene in the band is relatively small.

Analysts said that from the demand side, with the start of the demand for agricultural film, the demand side of the situation has improved, but due to stocking action before the plant festival, advance overdraft some of the demand, the new demand directly affect the market may be It will not appear until the end of March. On the supply side, petrochemical pressure was not as good as last year and the pressure was controllable. Therefore, it is unlikely that there will be serious differentiation between supply and demand in March, but it does not exclude the impact of short-term factors and fluctuations in the market. In contrast, the possibility of contradiction in April is more likely, but the starting time of the market depends on petrochemical overhaul and other policies, and must also consider the impact of financial factors on intertemporal and cross-variety.

In addition to the supply and demand situation, Xie Long also analyzed the other two aspects. He believes that the RRR cut action has been honored in the first quarter, and it is unlikely that the interest rate cut will be reduced again in a short period of time, and speculative speculation will not continue. In addition, the current production profits of plastics are still maintained at a relatively high level, so the impact of oil prices on plastics prices will gradually weaken. Ultimately, the judgment of the price still depends on the supply and demand situation. It holds a relatively neutral view on the price of plastics in March and the second quarter, and it is expected that the price will remain high after the rebound.