The price of the upstream commodities that made many companies' purchase "baskets" become heavy seems to have finally showed some signs of falling back. Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics released the “micro-reduced†indicator that preceded the PPI – the price changes of some major industrial products leaving the factory.
Among them, the “super coalâ€, which caused the downstream power, cement, coke, etc., to suffer from the “coal super crazyâ€, the first time the coal ex-factory price fell by 1.3%-1.5%. However, under the influence of the international and domestic environment, the recent coal price is predicted to continue to “fly†for a while.
Coal price seems to fall instead of
From the data released yesterday, the biggest bright spot is the looseness of the ex-factory price of coal. It is reported that the price of anthracite per ton ex-factory is 496.7 yuan, down 1.3% from December 20 last year; the average ex-factory price per ton of bituminous coal is 412.2 yuan, down 1.5% from the previous month.
The source of this trend signal may be traced back to December last year. The National Development and Reform Commission, which has always wanted to pull out, suddenly killed the "returning carbine". First, it called the "limit increase order" for the key coal contract price, and then ended on January 9. The Nanning trade fair high-profile to join the coal negotiations.
However, the ex-factory price of the shouting did not seem to be transmitted to the terminal. According to Liu Yuanrui, an analyst at Changjiang Securities, the thermal coal in various markets remained stable throughout the week, and prices in some regions such as the Northeast and Southwest were also rising slightly. The Debon Securities report also said that the price range of coking coal, injection coal and anthracite coal showed an upward trend.
"Based on the price of coal mine pits, the value-added of coal prices has also passed the management fees of transportation and sales companies, transportation costs, and even the internal fuel price increase. The ex-factory price has been slightly reduced, and it has been offset by freight charges and other intermediate links. The terminal price will sometimes rise instead." A related person from Shanxi Coking Coal Group explained to reporters.
The reporter noted that due to the upward adjustment of the oil price by the National Development and Reform Commission during the statistical cycle of the National Bureau of Statistics, the ex-factory price of natural crude oil increased by 8% from the previous month, and the diesel oil with a greater impact on freight rates recorded a monthly increase of 4.2%-4.6%. It is reported that the coastal coal freight index also rose last week.
The market's gains have emerged
In fact, regardless of the market price, even the ex-factory price correction that has emerged in the past seven months may be a short-lived one. The lagging response of this policy intervention is considered by the industry to be a short-term "psychological warfare", and the actual meaning will not last long.
The latest report released by Huatai United Securities provided evidence that as of January 10, the price of non-taxable pits in the smoke-free washing blocks in Yangquan and Jincheng districts has risen rapidly, up by 120 yuan/ton and 130 yuan/ton respectively from last week. The increase was 12.9% and 13.4%.
On the market price, Liu Yuanrui also noticed that this week, Shanxi anthracite lump coal rose by about 150 yuan / ton. “The main reason is that the reserves of chemical fertilizers are increasing near the spring tillage.†He also predicted that the market for thermal coal will continue to improve.
“After the Spring Festival, some coal mines began to limit production after completing the capacity task, which made the coal supply tighten, and the continuation of the frozen weather in the south also led to an increase in coal consumption.†He believes that in order to ensure the demand for electricity heating during the Spring Festival, the power plant has the incentive to increase coal inventory. reserve. Huatai United Securities also said that the price of thermal coal in the Northeast has risen by 25-30 yuan/ton from last week.
Another factor that laid the market's gains came from high international coal prices. "Australia's floods in recent months will continue to affect the coal supply in the international market, and international prices may continue to rise, driving domestic coal prices." Liu Yuanrui said. On January 7th, the international three major thermal coal price index released by Global Coal Network showed that Australia Newcastle Port NEWC thermal coal price index continued to rise for six consecutive weeks, reaching 129.90 US dollars / ton, an increase of 1.09%.
Intensified downstream dilemma
The most direct beneficiary of the flooding of Australia's largest seaborne coal export base is actually coking coal. In yesterday's National Bureau of Statistics data, coking bituminous coal is also the only rising category. According to the statistics of brokerage firms, prices have risen to varying degrees throughout the week. Among them, the prices of Shanxi Luliang, Hebei, Guizhou and other regions rose by more than 30 yuan / ton.
"Since January 1 this year, many coal companies have raised the ex-factory price of coking coal, and the increase rate has reached 100-150 yuan / ton. Some coal types in some areas have increased by as much as 170 yuan / ton." Reporter from some coking plants I understand that this price adjustment has stepped on the bottom line of acceptance. Many steel companies have taken the initiative to develop and acquire high-quality coking coal mines abroad, making it more difficult for coking plants to rely on steel to survive.
The downstream cement industry, which has the same industry concentration, high energy consumption and overcapacity, has also encountered bargaining difficulties. The reporter noted that the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the ex-factory price of ordinary Portland cement fell by 3.5%, and the strength grade of 52.5 was down by 6.2%.
Among them, the “super coalâ€, which caused the downstream power, cement, coke, etc., to suffer from the “coal super crazyâ€, the first time the coal ex-factory price fell by 1.3%-1.5%. However, under the influence of the international and domestic environment, the recent coal price is predicted to continue to “fly†for a while.
Coal price seems to fall instead of
From the data released yesterday, the biggest bright spot is the looseness of the ex-factory price of coal. It is reported that the price of anthracite per ton ex-factory is 496.7 yuan, down 1.3% from December 20 last year; the average ex-factory price per ton of bituminous coal is 412.2 yuan, down 1.5% from the previous month.
The source of this trend signal may be traced back to December last year. The National Development and Reform Commission, which has always wanted to pull out, suddenly killed the "returning carbine". First, it called the "limit increase order" for the key coal contract price, and then ended on January 9. The Nanning trade fair high-profile to join the coal negotiations.
However, the ex-factory price of the shouting did not seem to be transmitted to the terminal. According to Liu Yuanrui, an analyst at Changjiang Securities, the thermal coal in various markets remained stable throughout the week, and prices in some regions such as the Northeast and Southwest were also rising slightly. The Debon Securities report also said that the price range of coking coal, injection coal and anthracite coal showed an upward trend.
"Based on the price of coal mine pits, the value-added of coal prices has also passed the management fees of transportation and sales companies, transportation costs, and even the internal fuel price increase. The ex-factory price has been slightly reduced, and it has been offset by freight charges and other intermediate links. The terminal price will sometimes rise instead." A related person from Shanxi Coking Coal Group explained to reporters.
The reporter noted that due to the upward adjustment of the oil price by the National Development and Reform Commission during the statistical cycle of the National Bureau of Statistics, the ex-factory price of natural crude oil increased by 8% from the previous month, and the diesel oil with a greater impact on freight rates recorded a monthly increase of 4.2%-4.6%. It is reported that the coastal coal freight index also rose last week.
The market's gains have emerged
In fact, regardless of the market price, even the ex-factory price correction that has emerged in the past seven months may be a short-lived one. The lagging response of this policy intervention is considered by the industry to be a short-term "psychological warfare", and the actual meaning will not last long.
The latest report released by Huatai United Securities provided evidence that as of January 10, the price of non-taxable pits in the smoke-free washing blocks in Yangquan and Jincheng districts has risen rapidly, up by 120 yuan/ton and 130 yuan/ton respectively from last week. The increase was 12.9% and 13.4%.
On the market price, Liu Yuanrui also noticed that this week, Shanxi anthracite lump coal rose by about 150 yuan / ton. “The main reason is that the reserves of chemical fertilizers are increasing near the spring tillage.†He also predicted that the market for thermal coal will continue to improve.
“After the Spring Festival, some coal mines began to limit production after completing the capacity task, which made the coal supply tighten, and the continuation of the frozen weather in the south also led to an increase in coal consumption.†He believes that in order to ensure the demand for electricity heating during the Spring Festival, the power plant has the incentive to increase coal inventory. reserve. Huatai United Securities also said that the price of thermal coal in the Northeast has risen by 25-30 yuan/ton from last week.
Another factor that laid the market's gains came from high international coal prices. "Australia's floods in recent months will continue to affect the coal supply in the international market, and international prices may continue to rise, driving domestic coal prices." Liu Yuanrui said. On January 7th, the international three major thermal coal price index released by Global Coal Network showed that Australia Newcastle Port NEWC thermal coal price index continued to rise for six consecutive weeks, reaching 129.90 US dollars / ton, an increase of 1.09%.
Intensified downstream dilemma
The most direct beneficiary of the flooding of Australia's largest seaborne coal export base is actually coking coal. In yesterday's National Bureau of Statistics data, coking bituminous coal is also the only rising category. According to the statistics of brokerage firms, prices have risen to varying degrees throughout the week. Among them, the prices of Shanxi Luliang, Hebei, Guizhou and other regions rose by more than 30 yuan / ton.
"Since January 1 this year, many coal companies have raised the ex-factory price of coking coal, and the increase rate has reached 100-150 yuan / ton. Some coal types in some areas have increased by as much as 170 yuan / ton." Reporter from some coking plants I understand that this price adjustment has stepped on the bottom line of acceptance. Many steel companies have taken the initiative to develop and acquire high-quality coking coal mines abroad, making it more difficult for coking plants to rely on steel to survive.
The downstream cement industry, which has the same industry concentration, high energy consumption and overcapacity, has also encountered bargaining difficulties. The reporter noted that the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the ex-factory price of ordinary Portland cement fell by 3.5%, and the strength grade of 52.5 was down by 6.2%.
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