Jian Jian Information (07.19): Copper and Aluminum recently added the “Risk Warning†column to describe the risk of long and short positions through the star image of this icon, for investors to use when referencing open positions. In actual operation, investors need to take specific control based on their own short-medium-term trading strategies and different types of fluctuation characteristics. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ☆ ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆ ☆ The period price is the reverse of the newer closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 5%. Risk Warning: Bulls: ☆ Short Risks: ☆☆ Tips before the break: Orient: Last March, the LME copper oscillation rose in March and closed at US$2837/ton, up by US$44.5, and the fluctuation range was 2852.5~2750 USD/ton. LME March aluminum closed at 1746.5 US dollars / ton, down 6 US dollars, trading range of 1762 ~ 1708.5 US dollars / ton. LME copper stocks fell 3,850 tons in the entire week, with a stock of 94,450 tons. LME aluminum stocks fell by 13,325 tons throughout the week, with a stock of 914,800 tons. The Shanghai Stock Exchange increased its copper inventories by 15,094 tons, with stocks of 68,430 tons; aluminum stocks increased by 19,475 tons and stocks were 156,672 tons. Last week, LME March copper shocks rose 44.5 US dollars, the fundamentals, the US industrial production in June fell by 0.3%, lower than the expected increase of 0.1%, but the year-on-year growth still reached 5.6%; US retail sales fell by 1.1% in June , is a large decline since February last year; the US consumer confidence index in June was at its peak in recent years (101.9); the US trade deficit in May was less than the expected 2.3 billion US dollars, to 46 billion US dollars, the US trade deficit in May. The decrease was due to a substantial increase in exports; last week's initial jobless claims rose to 349,000; the US consumer price index (CPI) for the week ended the week rose 0.3%, slightly higher than the expected 0.2%, but deducted food and energy After the increase in core CPI was lower than expected. In summary, the United States economy has mixed concerns, but economic growth has slowed down, inflationary pressures have eased, and the market’s concerns about US trade and fiscal double deficits have caused the US dollar exchange rate to fall sharply this week, supporting the rise in LME copper prices. Technical trends show that LME March copper still has some room for rebound after breaking the $2,820 frontline. Weekend CFTC fund position report shows that the net long position of the fund increased by more than 8,200 hands. The current net amount is more than 16,000 hands. Domestically, last week China concentrated on the first half of GDP growth of 9.7% year-on-year, with the second-quarter growth rate of 9.6%. After several months of macro-control, industrial added value and investment have all significantly declined. In June, fixed asset investment increased by 28.6% year-on-year. The consumer price in June increased by 5% year-on-year, indicating that inflationary pressures still exist. However, due to the effect of macroeconomic regulation and control, from the perspective of the country’s policy, the pressure for raising interest rates has also eased. This week, Shanghai Copper’s weakening relative to the LME’s copper price is due to the market’s expectation that LME’s copper rebound is limited and more cautious; the second is that the State Reserve has released 18,000 tons of copper stocks, making spot pressure. Increase, spot prices weakened. In the later period, the price ratio between Shanghai copper and LME copper is still strong. In summary, the focus of the late US dollar exchange rate, copper stocks at home and abroad, and the country's macroeconomic control in the later period are the focus of attention. Ma Hongqing: Under the stimulus of the falling dollar, LME copper prices hit a new high in the near future on Friday. However, as for other basic metals, the rise in copper prices is more about capital speculation. What's more, the rise in copper prices is more due to the weakness of the CPI in June that has limited the Fed’s rate hike, but at the same time it should have formed a strong profit for the stock market, but the Dow still fell. The outlook for copper prices reflected by the stock market trend is clearly far less optimistic than the trend of copper prices. Shanghai CU CU411 is expected to test the pressure level of 26,100 on Monday, with further pressure at 26,200. The short position in the hands of investors is advised to stop at 26200. Daily commentary: He Haihai: Basic metals closed steady at Thursday's close, three-month copper closed at 2,806 US dollars per ton, and daily trading volume at 2,790. Copper's robust trade buying supported prices. Trade buying supported the market price Shanghai copper was higher today After the opening, the trend is consolidating. As the copper is in the vicinity of the key point of 2800 US dollars, the trend is not clear. Although Shanghai copper often goes out of the unilateral quotation in the day, it is still difficult to get out of the consolidation trend. The US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that the US producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.3% in June, and the market is expected to increase by 0.2%, while the PPI for food and energy deducted in June increased by 0.2%. The core PPI was in line with expectations, making the US dollar in the United States. There was no major decline in overall inflation and decline. The number of jobless claims rose to 349,000 in the first week of July 10. The foreign exchange market will focus on the industrial production data to be announced and the more critical consumer price index (CPI). Workers at the La Caridad mine in Mexico began a strike on Monday night. Some market sources believe that if the labor dispute here cannot be resolved quickly, workers in Canada may also strike in an effort to express their support. La Caridad Copper Mine Annual Production 14 Million tons of copper concentrate, 240,000 tons of refined copper. The contract negotiations of the copper producer, GrupoMexico's US subsidiary Asarco, have not yet resulted. Dealers are waiting for news from Angloplat, the company's Rustenburg copper and nickel plant in South Africa Workers may be on strike due to wage disputes. Rustenburg's cathode copper rated annual production capacity is 11,000 tons, and cathode nickel is rated at an annual production capacity of nearly 20,000 tons. The factory wage negotiations will begin on July 22. On the market outlook, The consumer price index announced on Friday is important and will have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market, which will in turn affect the price of copper. Now that the domestic copper positions have been extended and expanded, it shows that the market is in serious and long and short positions at current prices. It is expected that the market will see a wave of strong market movements under the guidance of London Copper. Operational advice: wait and see. Overseas Express: LME Market Report: London, July 16 News: The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper closed higher on Friday, but gains were limited due to short covering. In early trading, boosted by bank buying, LME copper gained momentum and jumped to US$2,840 per metric ton. At midday, the copper price further extended its upward trend and hit an intraday high of 2,852.50 U.S. dollars. At the close, LME copper gave some gains. Analysts said that the price of copper rose above the resistance of 2,825 US dollars, pointing to 2,865 US dollars. It is expected that LME copper will have a support range of US$2,810-2,825. The dollar weakened against major commodity currencies, dragged down by the weak US consumer confidence in June. The weaker US dollar was the main reason for the rebound in base metal prices in 2004. The US Labor Department announced on the 16th that the US CPI rose by 0.3% in June. The core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) rose by 0.1% month-on-month, which was smaller since 2004 and 0.2% lower than expected. The weakening of inflationary pressure in the United States may lead to a modest increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. The euro maintained its strong tone against the US dollar, which boosted the base metal price. The LME aluminum futures high was $1,752.50. The nickel high in the LME nickel futures was at a high of US$14,975. However, it was dragged down by profit taking and closed at US$14,750 per metric ton. Fundamentally, Mexico’s La Caridad copper mine went on strike on the 12th. This also stimulated the price of copper and aluminum. Although most of the base metals closed higher, the LME zinc was still weak and only closed above the key support at $1,000. Affected by the rise in inventories, nickel in LME fell under pressure. This week, LME nickel inventories rose by 24% to 9,720 metric tons. COMEX Copper Market Report: NEW YORK, July 16 News: Friday's advance copper from the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) closed higher on gains from fund buying and a weaker US dollar. In the past few trading days, copper prices have remained at a high level within a narrow range. On that day, the copper price finally broke through the resistance, rising above the key resistance level of 1.30 US dollars, and hit a three-month high of 1.3150 US dollars. COMEX copper for September delivery rose 2.30 cents Friday to close at $1.3105 per pound. The trading range is 1.2850-1.3150 USD. From the perspective of economic fundamentals, first, China's successful economic "soft landing" did not really affect its copper demand. Second, weak US inflation data boosted the copper market. This means that the United States is unlikely to implement a radical tightening monetary policy, that is, to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% for the first time in four years. After the Fed raised interest rates, the dollar weakened and demand for copper increased, which in turn gave the metal market strong support. Analysts believe that the recent increase in copper prices. Investors are advised to take the market down on the market, rather than chasing it. Earlier in the trading day, boosted by fund buying, the copper price rose rapidly, but buying power above the resistance level of $1.30 had weakened significantly. COMEX September copper hit a high of 1.3150 US dollars, higher since April 19th. The US Labor Department announced on the 16th that the US core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) rose by 0.1% in June. As inflationary pressures weakened, the Fed may further restrain its rate hike. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.367%, which was lower since mid-April. As of COMEX's close, the euro rose to $1.2445 against the US dollar. A weaker dollar means that New York Copper’s market competitiveness will increase, which will help stimulate copper demand growth. During the sluggish metal trading in summer, the market was particularly concerned about China’s copper demand. Although the Chinese government has effectively controlled the rate of economic growth, copper demand has continued to grow. In addition, the decline in inventory is another reason to support copper prices. LME copper stocks fell 975 metric tons to 94,450 metric tons on the 16th. COMEX copper stocks fell by 323 short tons to 87,437 short tons on the 15th. As of COMEX's close, LME’s three-month copper rose by US$36 to US$2,837 per metric ton.
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