Demand is difficult to follow up in the domestic market

Recently, the domestic market continued to rise steadily, with the most obvious one being the area of ​​the port area in the East China Sea. Concentrated by the supply of goods and supporting the proper upward movement of the external disk, the price of shipments of goods intended by the company continued to rise. However, many downstream buyers have a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, domestic ** production companies to maintain the normal take the main, external quotation temporarily stable, the market continues to climb resistance.

In terms of demand, although the fertilizer season for the fall started, the performance of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market was mixed. The ammonium market experienced a decline in the high price of fertilizers, and the diammonium market rose steadily under domestic supply, accompanied by the off-season exports this year. The closed window of diammonium supply will inevitably be broken, and the maintenance of high-end prices still needs to be observed. With reference to the start-up of fertilizer manufacturers, the operating rate has not shown signs of improvement and the corresponding demand for raw materials has not increased. improvement. Therefore, in view of the recent rising market, limited acceptance has made it difficult to boost the market to continue to climb.

In particular, the Chinese government is currently considering raising the NP binary fertilizer export tariff policy, which may also include heavy calcium. It is generally believed that the existing NP binary fertilizer contract orders exported to India will still be valid, but the new policy of restricting the export of binary fertilizers will be introduced this year and will implement the same policy as diammonium/monoammonium. At present, the Chinese government has raised the benchmark price of diammonium/monoammonium, diammonium has increased from FOB600/tonne to FOB630/tonne, and anammonium has risen from FOB590/tonne to FOB600/tonne. This will affect the export volume of chemical fertilizers to a certain extent. Under the constraints of large domestic chemical fertilizer production capacity, fertilizer production enterprises will only face a decline in the operating rate of the domestic market, and some small-scale enterprises may even face a crisis of parking, which is difficult to accept for high-priced raw materials.

Therefore, in general, as the price of the market continues to climb, despite the recent surge in external disk prices, supply concentration, and expectations, it is still expected to support steady growth. However, the downstream demand is mixed, and the tariff policy for fertilizers is expected to adjust. The market is waiting to see the atmosphere. Strong, short-term climb is unlikely.