Developing Three Problems in Developing Methanol to Olefins

The commercial operation of the Shenhua Baotou Coal to Olefins Project has made many companies with coal or methanol or even methanol purchased more enthusiastic about the methanol-to-olefins project. According to incomplete statistics, at present, China has built three sets of equipment, with an annual production capacity of about 1.7 million tons of olefins; four sets of equipment under construction, with an annual production capacity of 2.2 million tons; 36 sets of proposed equipment, with an annual production capacity of approximately 21 million tons.

Can so many proposed projects be approved? How to protect raw materials? How to choose downstream product solutions? At the third symposium on coal-to-olefins technology held in Beijing last week, the participating experts made rational analysis and suggestions on several issues most concerned by the industry.

Tens of billions of investment approvals are difficult

Yue Guo, vice president of China Shenhua Coal-to-oil Chemical Co., Ltd., said that there are many methanol-to-olefin projects currently under construction, but a large part of it may be difficult to pass approval. Apart from other conditions, a coal-to-olefins project will only require investment of about 20 billion yuan, and companies themselves must have at least 6 billion yuan as capital. Many companies simply do not have the ability to prop up this project.

Bai Dai, deputy director of the Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning, said that there is a huge gap between the supply and demand of olefins in China and that coal-based olefins have market conditions and are in line with China's development needs. According to the requirements of the government departments in charge, the next phase will be appropriately upgraded and demonstrated, including rational planning and layout, reduction of energy consumption, and optimization of "three wastes" treatment. The new standards for coal-to-olefins admittance are expected to be announced recently. This standard will put forward higher requirements for resource utilization rate, energy conversion rate and environmental impact on the basis of the Shenhua Baotou project. She reminded companies to consider integrated long-term costs including carbon emissions and environmental protection. It is estimated that 1 ton of coal-to-olefins will emit 7 tons of carbon dioxide more than petroleum-based olefins. Once domestic environmental taxes or carbon dioxide recovery costs are collected, calculations based on general treatment standards will also increase the cost of coal to olefins by 2,000 yuan per ton.

Bai Yan stressed that at present, China's coal chemical industry is only a supplement to petrochemicals, far from the replacement stage, and so is coal-to-olefins. Coal-to-olefins projects submitted to the project will only be approved if they meet future upgrade model standards. According to the diversification strategy of olefinic raw materials in China, the non-petroleum base will reach 15% to 20% at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, and coal-to-olefins will be included.

The supply of raw materials is the key to the formation of a community of interests

Lu Zhihui, general manager of Emerging Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the methanol-to-olefins plant to be built will provide China with 10 million tons of olefin production capacity, which can save 30 million tons of naphtha (corresponding to crude oil imports of about 100 million Ton) has an important role to play in China's energy security. How to solve the source of methanol and whether it can control the dominance of the methanol supply chain largely determines the living space of the methanol-to-olefins industry.

Sinochem Consulting stated that in the past few years, the domestic development of methanol to olefins is basically two models. One is to rely on coal resources to build an integrated coal-to-olefins project; the other is to rely on offshore ports to purchase methanol to build an independent methanol. Olefin production projects. At present, a new trend is emerging, that is, based on the existing coal-to-methanol plant, the new methanol plant will be used to supplement production capacity or a part of the methanol raw materials will be purchased, and the methanol-to-olefins and downstream projects will be developed. At present, Sinopec, Shenhua, Shenhua Ning Coal and other companies are developing such projects.

Yue Guo reminded enterprises that although there is an excess of methanol production capacity in China, there are still price fluctuation risks in the purchase of domestically produced methanol. In particular, the listing of methanol has financial attributes. Therefore, outsourcing companies should not only purchase, but must establish a cooperation model to ensure the supply of raw materials, such as the integration of scattered methanol companies, reorganization of capital, the formation of a community of interests, so as to reduce cost risks.

The biggest advantage of importing methanol to olefins is low cost, low water consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, and it belongs to low-carbon industries, but there is also the risk that raw materials cannot be supplied stably. Asian Chemicals Consulting Co., Ltd. recommended that the outsourcing of methanol to olefins should adopt the same strategy as importing methanol and domestically produced methanol, and signed a long-term supply agreement to lock in costs and stabilize production.

Targeting Petrochemical Blank Area Optimization Program Development Downstream

Bai Ji said that coal chemical industry is generally located in coal resources and separated from the application market. Transportation issues should not be ignored. Therefore, liquid products should be minimized, and local demand should be the main reason. When studying the downstream development opportunities, coal-to-olefins should be aimed at petrochemical blank areas, and the dislocation of Sinopec as the first principle. If the development of high-end downstream products, you can consider the country's macro supply and demand situation. If it is a general-purpose product, it must be based on the regional market.

Yue Guo believes that the product plan must be determined based on multiple factors such as the company's own characteristics, selected technologies, and target market demand. Although most of the pre-projects are based on two-poly products (polyethylene, polypropylene), not all projects require polyolefins. There are many other alternatives, such as ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, and chloropropane. , propylene oxide and so on. “But as an enterprise, if the products are too dispersed, there will be big problems in transportation. Moreover, it is not realistic for a 600,000-ton/year olefin project to do small products such as ethylene oxide. After all, the polyolefin consumption level is Ten million tons, belonging to large integrated products, have stable market demand, and the demand for small products is mostly in the hundreds of thousands of tons or several million tons. Even if the added value is high, it is impossible for all companies to compete for the little market. Therefore, it should be possible to combine mainstream aggregation with the optimization of the product structure of small products."

Asian Chemicals Consulting believes that the high-end, exclusive, high-margin ratio of polyolefin consumption in China is increasing rapidly, and the proportion of high-end grades in imported polyolefin products is as high as 40%. As domestic new polyolefin projects are gradually put into production, the competition for low-end polyolefin products will become more intense. Enterprises should focus on a high starting point to develop high-end polyolefin products. In addition, methanol-to-olefins by-products can also be used to produce butadiene, dimethyl, 2-propylheptanol and other products.