Under price pressures, the adjustment of energy prices is hindered; what will be the trend of oil prices next year? Expert analysis: In 2011, energy risks will be reduced and oil prices will not soar
So far, the energy industry has played an important role in this period of stable price wars. Companies that were previously limited by energy conservation and emission reduction have assumed the responsibility of ensuring production and supply. Based on this, there are views that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has fully protected the energy demand of chemical fertilizers and sugar-squeezing enterprises, and the prohibition of power cuts is a signal that the energy-saving emission reduction policy released under the pressure of high prices has loosened. In this regard, the interviewed experts said that can not easily draw conclusions of loose energy-saving emission reduction, in fact should be noted that the relevant departments have stated that the "Eleventh Five-Year" energy-saving goals are expected to be completed on schedule, emission reduction targets have been achieved in advance.
At present, it appears that measures to stabilize prices have achieved initial success, but its methods have been questioned by many parties. Experts believe that although the adjustment of the price mechanism of energy products is temporarily hindered, the pace of its reform will not stop, and it must be speeded up so as to fundamentally solve the various types of "energy shortages." The "price war" smoke hasn't been exhausted yet. How long will this war last? What impact will it have on the energy industry? What are the changes in energy prices and demand? Some agencies predict that the average price of NYMEX crude oil will reach US$100 per barrel next year. Is this prediction reliable? On these issues, the reporter interviewed a number of experts.
Energy prices have the potential to make up
Chen Fengying, director of the Institute of World Economy at the China Institute of Modern Relations, believes that there is a potential for energy growth. For now, energy prices have not led this round of inflation but have lagged behind it. However, the situation that the price of oil surged above $140 in 2008 should not occur. At that time, the production of biomass energy in the United States triggered a rise in food prices, which caused speculators to sharply speculate on energy prices. Now, the international management of Enhance - Commodity price supervision will be included in the content of the G20 France Conference next year. Both the United States and Europe are strengthening the management of bulk commodities. I call on China to establish its own energy market management measures. On the other hand, the relevant departments have something to do, but also have to do something wrong. At present, it seems that the excessive intervention of administrative measures has indeed had some negative effects on straightening out the energy market. For instance, domestic diesel supply and demand are tight, and the provinces have “power cuts†for completing the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†energy saving and emission reduction targets. A very important reason. In the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period of energy pricing, the market mechanism has also faded, and the “12th Five-Year Plan†can no longer take the old road of “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. In the future, government departments should reduce their direct intervention in the market. Instead, they should use price, taxation, and other controls as levers to create a competitive environment for the market.
Xu Qiyuan, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences at this stage, has a strong domestic production capacity. Our reasons for worrying about inflation basically come from two aspects. One is domestic liquidity and the other is international liquidity, such as the US QE2 (quantitative easing 2 round = second round of quantitative easing). However, the central bank’s determination has already been demonstrated by raising interest rates and raising the reserve ratio; the United States’ QE2 is also a measure taken in the face of enhanced liquidity preference and a sharp drop in currency movement speed. The current situation is similar to the liquidity trap. In the short term, we cannot see that QE2 has a significant boost to the U.S. economy.
The continued rise in the prices of international commodities, such as oil, will depend on the substantial improvement of the developed economies such as the United States, and this will still require time. It is not a problem that light money can solve. Whereas the international arbitrage capital caused by QE2 flows to emerging market economies, its impact on prices will be relatively limited. This is because, first, they are affecting asset prices; second, without the support of world economic fundamentals, price rises are not sustainable; and thirdly, emerging market countries have adopted tough policies that are tough and clear.
Wang Yi, deputy director of the Institute of Science, Technology, and Management Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, has many functions: safeguarding food security, social stability, and maintaining market economic order. These goals must be well coordinated, and we must not over-pursue one goal while ignoring the realization of other goals. Otherwise, it will be in a dilemma: For example, food security requires a sufficient amount of chemical fertilizers, but energy-saving emission reductions must also limit the production of these high-energy-consuming industries.
As far as price increases are concerned, the government can use administrative measures to suppress it, but this can only be temporary. The reasons for the rise in the price of money to issue currency should be to implement corresponding fiscal and monetary policies to deal with it, instead of simply suppressing prices.
In order to achieve the goal of saving energy by 20%, many places have not hesitated to adopt extreme measures. Now, rising prices can be said to be a rebound of the administrative orders at that time. All these warn us, first of all, to coordinate our goals. Second, find the root cause of the problem and take measures. In addition, consider more economic and market methods, do not get rid of headaches, or press the gourd to scoop.
Shi Dan, deputy director of the Institute of Finance and Trade of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, noticed from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that in order to control prices, adjustments to energy prices have slowed, meaning that there will be no major adjustments to energy prices. Monetary policy may be adjusted, but it also depends on the big economic trend. It is not just looking at the price. The price is only one aspect. Whether it is monetary policy or fiscal policy, starting from the stable operation of the economy, we must prevent the economic downturn from fluctuating.
Guan Qingyou, a researcher at the CNOOC Research Institute of Energy and Economics, said that from the statistical point of view, prices have reached a high level. At the end of the year, the Central Economic Work Conference should be adjusted. At present, a moderately loose monetary policy may be adjusted to a stable and tightened monetary policy, and the economy will enter a tightening cycle. However, the price drop requires a process that may take up to six months. As for whether it will rebound, I think it is unlikely. One reason is that inflation is about to end and the other is the tightening of the currency.
The series of policies promulgated by the government will surely have a positive effect on stabilizing prices. However, these policies are mostly administrative and arbitrarily strong and do not conform to the laws of market economy. The main culprit for rising prices is excessive currency issuance. The rise in energy prices has caused the price of agricultural products to rise, raw materials have risen, and the cost has increased. How can food prices not increase? The government should subsidize the disadvantaged groups and raise the income level. It is unreasonable to forcibly suppress companies from raising prices.
How is the trend of oil prices next year?
Xu Qiyuan, the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, now says that the security supply is different from that of the 1980s and early 1990s. From a fundamental point of view, the supply of goods is now sufficient, and it is no problem to meet the real needs of life, and there are even surpluses. Why is it necessary to guarantee supply because at a given price of control (the price of control is lower than the market price), I do not want to sell, so there is a shortage. Why would you not want to sell it? Because I think the price will go up. Why do you think so? Because the liquidity is indeed too much, the funds have no place to go.
From this fundamental point of view, liquidity is like a flood. It is moving around and blocking a mouth. It flows through other ports. Unless all prices are regulated, we will return to the planned economy. . Therefore, the most fundamental thing is to tighten liquidity.
Crude oil prices are highly accidental, with political and economic factors. However, next year I tend to believe that the annual average price will not reach $100/barrel.
Mr. Guan Qingyou, a research fellow at CNOOC Energy Economics Institute, I do not agree that the crude oil market will soar next year. The forecast of $100/barrel stems from the fact that it is not optimistic about the dollar. In fact, the euro is worse, the Japanese economy has not risen, the dollar is still very strong, and the oil stocks are high. How could it soar? I am not optimistic about international oil prices.
From the domestic perspective, China’s oil pricing mechanism should be changed. It is best to specify only the maximum price. The government can also adjust the price, but it should raise the frequency of price adjustments to keep up with the market.
Chen Fengying, head of the Institute of World Economics at the Institute of Modern Relations, China, risks reducing the energy supply in 2011. First of all, this year is a strong rebound after last year's decline. The recovery momentum will slow next year, especially as the recovery of emerging markets next year will not be as strong as this year, and oil demand is also relatively moderate.
Second, there is no big problem for suppliers. China and Russia, Brazil, the Middle East, and Africa are strengthening their oil supplies. South-South cooperation is more heated than North-South cooperation. Emerging markets make up for the lack of upstream market supply.
In addition, new energy development and energy-saving emission reduction pressure is still very large. This year, Cancún will certainly not reach an agreement on the actual effects of emission reductions, but if there is no post-Kyoto Protocol before 2012, it may be a disaster. Therefore, in the next year or two, the pressure of reducing emissions will increase.
However, there are two other factors that cannot be ignored: war and exchange rates. The Iranian nuclear issue has not been resolved. If a crisis erupts in Iran, the possibility of rising oil prices is very high. The dollar has gone up and down this year, and if it continues this year next year, people will abandon the dollar faster.
Overall, I don't think oil prices will fluctuate significantly next year. In the G20 meeting next November, price management is an important issue.
News background
Inflation is severe, and energy price adjustments have been hindered. For this round of rising prices, industry insiders have indicated that the super currency is the main reason. Although the main performance is that the price of agricultural products has risen, it does not rule out the “recommended increase†of energy products.
In fact, the price of coal transit places has continued to rise recently. Qinhuangdao coal prices continue to push the highest prices in recent years. 5500 kcal thermal coal price reached 795 yuan -805 yuan / ton, compared with the highest price of 810 yuan / ton in the year only 5 yuan. The price of coal in Hangkou has also increased recently. The weekly price of coal in Shanxi has increased by around RMB 5 per ton.
Earlier, some power companies jointly requested to increase the price of electricity, but under inflationary pressure, the increase in electricity prices will have a greater impact on downstream industrial costs. It is estimated that it will be difficult to make progress in the near future. The loss caused by rising fuel prices will continue for some time.
With respect to refined oil products, the price trend of refined oil products that have already met the conditions for price increases may be temporarily “frozenâ€. Reuters quoted Credit Suisse report that China's refined oil prices have been in line with the international crude oil price 22 consecutive working days, the average increase of more than 4% adjustment, but out of fear of inflation, adjustments need to wait and see the government's attitude. According to the report, many refiners have little confidence in the recent increase in allowed prices.
Affected by a series of measures to stabilize the price of diesel oil in the country, the “diesel shortage†tension is expected to ease by the end of December. The accumulated decline effect in the past two weeks has caused the dismantling of the wholesale and retail upside down in some parts of northern China such as Jing-Jin-Ji, Shandong and Liaoning. Analysts said that this may indicate that the current "diesel shortage" ushered in to ease the "turning point."
All ministries and commissions intervened on the 20th, the State Council promulgated 16 specific measures to ensure the protection of chemical fertilizer production and supply, and do a good job in the coordination of coal power and oil and gas transportation; on the 29th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released “on the current operation monitoring and coordination to promote the smooth and orderly operation of industrial production. The "news notice" proposes to actively carry out work in accordance with the principle of "different treatment, pressure to maintain and pressure," to meet the normal production energy use and transportation needs of enterprises, and to ensure normal production and use of electricity and gas by chemical fertilizer companies, so as to guarantee the normal production and use of electricity by sugar-milling enterprises. The diesel used for transporting sugarcane shall not be subject to power cuts.
On the 26th, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that oil and coal companies must undertake the necessary social responsibilities and cooperate with the government in ensuring the supply and stabilizing the overall price level. Prior to this, the Development and Reform Commission exposed six local oil refining companies, two major oil giants under the wholesale oil wholesale unit unauthorized break through the zero and spread standards, high-priced diesel sales, disrupting the order of the market price behavior.
At about the same time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) also issued a plan to require all exchanges to greatly increase the trading margins of all varieties on the existing basis, and at the same time moderately increase the range of price fluctuations of ** varieties, restrain excess trading, and curb frequent trades in short-term. In addition, the price increase plan for natural gas in many places across the country has also been temporarily suspended.
So far, the energy industry has played an important role in this period of stable price wars. Companies that were previously limited by energy conservation and emission reduction have assumed the responsibility of ensuring production and supply. Based on this, there are views that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has fully protected the energy demand of chemical fertilizers and sugar-squeezing enterprises, and the prohibition of power cuts is a signal that the energy-saving emission reduction policy released under the pressure of high prices has loosened. In this regard, the interviewed experts said that can not easily draw conclusions of loose energy-saving emission reduction, in fact should be noted that the relevant departments have stated that the "Eleventh Five-Year" energy-saving goals are expected to be completed on schedule, emission reduction targets have been achieved in advance.
At present, it appears that measures to stabilize prices have achieved initial success, but its methods have been questioned by many parties. Experts believe that although the adjustment of the price mechanism of energy products is temporarily hindered, the pace of its reform will not stop, and it must be speeded up so as to fundamentally solve the various types of "energy shortages." The "price war" smoke hasn't been exhausted yet. How long will this war last? What impact will it have on the energy industry? What are the changes in energy prices and demand? Some agencies predict that the average price of NYMEX crude oil will reach US$100 per barrel next year. Is this prediction reliable? On these issues, the reporter interviewed a number of experts.
Energy prices have the potential to make up
Chen Fengying, director of the Institute of World Economy at the China Institute of Modern Relations, believes that there is a potential for energy growth. For now, energy prices have not led this round of inflation but have lagged behind it. However, the situation that the price of oil surged above $140 in 2008 should not occur. At that time, the production of biomass energy in the United States triggered a rise in food prices, which caused speculators to sharply speculate on energy prices. Now, the international management of Enhance - Commodity price supervision will be included in the content of the G20 France Conference next year. Both the United States and Europe are strengthening the management of bulk commodities. I call on China to establish its own energy market management measures. On the other hand, the relevant departments have something to do, but also have to do something wrong. At present, it seems that the excessive intervention of administrative measures has indeed had some negative effects on straightening out the energy market. For instance, domestic diesel supply and demand are tight, and the provinces have “power cuts†for completing the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†energy saving and emission reduction targets. A very important reason. In the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period of energy pricing, the market mechanism has also faded, and the “12th Five-Year Plan†can no longer take the old road of “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. In the future, government departments should reduce their direct intervention in the market. Instead, they should use price, taxation, and other controls as levers to create a competitive environment for the market.
Xu Qiyuan, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences at this stage, has a strong domestic production capacity. Our reasons for worrying about inflation basically come from two aspects. One is domestic liquidity and the other is international liquidity, such as the US QE2 (quantitative easing 2 round = second round of quantitative easing). However, the central bank’s determination has already been demonstrated by raising interest rates and raising the reserve ratio; the United States’ QE2 is also a measure taken in the face of enhanced liquidity preference and a sharp drop in currency movement speed. The current situation is similar to the liquidity trap. In the short term, we cannot see that QE2 has a significant boost to the U.S. economy.
The continued rise in the prices of international commodities, such as oil, will depend on the substantial improvement of the developed economies such as the United States, and this will still require time. It is not a problem that light money can solve. Whereas the international arbitrage capital caused by QE2 flows to emerging market economies, its impact on prices will be relatively limited. This is because, first, they are affecting asset prices; second, without the support of world economic fundamentals, price rises are not sustainable; and thirdly, emerging market countries have adopted tough policies that are tough and clear.
Wang Yi, deputy director of the Institute of Science, Technology, and Management Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, has many functions: safeguarding food security, social stability, and maintaining market economic order. These goals must be well coordinated, and we must not over-pursue one goal while ignoring the realization of other goals. Otherwise, it will be in a dilemma: For example, food security requires a sufficient amount of chemical fertilizers, but energy-saving emission reductions must also limit the production of these high-energy-consuming industries.
As far as price increases are concerned, the government can use administrative measures to suppress it, but this can only be temporary. The reasons for the rise in the price of money to issue currency should be to implement corresponding fiscal and monetary policies to deal with it, instead of simply suppressing prices.
In order to achieve the goal of saving energy by 20%, many places have not hesitated to adopt extreme measures. Now, rising prices can be said to be a rebound of the administrative orders at that time. All these warn us, first of all, to coordinate our goals. Second, find the root cause of the problem and take measures. In addition, consider more economic and market methods, do not get rid of headaches, or press the gourd to scoop.
Shi Dan, deputy director of the Institute of Finance and Trade of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, noticed from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that in order to control prices, adjustments to energy prices have slowed, meaning that there will be no major adjustments to energy prices. Monetary policy may be adjusted, but it also depends on the big economic trend. It is not just looking at the price. The price is only one aspect. Whether it is monetary policy or fiscal policy, starting from the stable operation of the economy, we must prevent the economic downturn from fluctuating.
Guan Qingyou, a researcher at the CNOOC Research Institute of Energy and Economics, said that from the statistical point of view, prices have reached a high level. At the end of the year, the Central Economic Work Conference should be adjusted. At present, a moderately loose monetary policy may be adjusted to a stable and tightened monetary policy, and the economy will enter a tightening cycle. However, the price drop requires a process that may take up to six months. As for whether it will rebound, I think it is unlikely. One reason is that inflation is about to end and the other is the tightening of the currency.
The series of policies promulgated by the government will surely have a positive effect on stabilizing prices. However, these policies are mostly administrative and arbitrarily strong and do not conform to the laws of market economy. The main culprit for rising prices is excessive currency issuance. The rise in energy prices has caused the price of agricultural products to rise, raw materials have risen, and the cost has increased. How can food prices not increase? The government should subsidize the disadvantaged groups and raise the income level. It is unreasonable to forcibly suppress companies from raising prices.
How is the trend of oil prices next year?
Xu Qiyuan, the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, now says that the security supply is different from that of the 1980s and early 1990s. From a fundamental point of view, the supply of goods is now sufficient, and it is no problem to meet the real needs of life, and there are even surpluses. Why is it necessary to guarantee supply because at a given price of control (the price of control is lower than the market price), I do not want to sell, so there is a shortage. Why would you not want to sell it? Because I think the price will go up. Why do you think so? Because the liquidity is indeed too much, the funds have no place to go.
From this fundamental point of view, liquidity is like a flood. It is moving around and blocking a mouth. It flows through other ports. Unless all prices are regulated, we will return to the planned economy. . Therefore, the most fundamental thing is to tighten liquidity.
Crude oil prices are highly accidental, with political and economic factors. However, next year I tend to believe that the annual average price will not reach $100/barrel.
Mr. Guan Qingyou, a research fellow at CNOOC Energy Economics Institute, I do not agree that the crude oil market will soar next year. The forecast of $100/barrel stems from the fact that it is not optimistic about the dollar. In fact, the euro is worse, the Japanese economy has not risen, the dollar is still very strong, and the oil stocks are high. How could it soar? I am not optimistic about international oil prices.
From the domestic perspective, China’s oil pricing mechanism should be changed. It is best to specify only the maximum price. The government can also adjust the price, but it should raise the frequency of price adjustments to keep up with the market.
Chen Fengying, head of the Institute of World Economics at the Institute of Modern Relations, China, risks reducing the energy supply in 2011. First of all, this year is a strong rebound after last year's decline. The recovery momentum will slow next year, especially as the recovery of emerging markets next year will not be as strong as this year, and oil demand is also relatively moderate.
Second, there is no big problem for suppliers. China and Russia, Brazil, the Middle East, and Africa are strengthening their oil supplies. South-South cooperation is more heated than North-South cooperation. Emerging markets make up for the lack of upstream market supply.
In addition, new energy development and energy-saving emission reduction pressure is still very large. This year, Cancún will certainly not reach an agreement on the actual effects of emission reductions, but if there is no post-Kyoto Protocol before 2012, it may be a disaster. Therefore, in the next year or two, the pressure of reducing emissions will increase.
However, there are two other factors that cannot be ignored: war and exchange rates. The Iranian nuclear issue has not been resolved. If a crisis erupts in Iran, the possibility of rising oil prices is very high. The dollar has gone up and down this year, and if it continues this year next year, people will abandon the dollar faster.
Overall, I don't think oil prices will fluctuate significantly next year. In the G20 meeting next November, price management is an important issue.
News background
Inflation is severe, and energy price adjustments have been hindered. For this round of rising prices, industry insiders have indicated that the super currency is the main reason. Although the main performance is that the price of agricultural products has risen, it does not rule out the “recommended increase†of energy products.
In fact, the price of coal transit places has continued to rise recently. Qinhuangdao coal prices continue to push the highest prices in recent years. 5500 kcal thermal coal price reached 795 yuan -805 yuan / ton, compared with the highest price of 810 yuan / ton in the year only 5 yuan. The price of coal in Hangkou has also increased recently. The weekly price of coal in Shanxi has increased by around RMB 5 per ton.
Earlier, some power companies jointly requested to increase the price of electricity, but under inflationary pressure, the increase in electricity prices will have a greater impact on downstream industrial costs. It is estimated that it will be difficult to make progress in the near future. The loss caused by rising fuel prices will continue for some time.
With respect to refined oil products, the price trend of refined oil products that have already met the conditions for price increases may be temporarily “frozenâ€. Reuters quoted Credit Suisse report that China's refined oil prices have been in line with the international crude oil price 22 consecutive working days, the average increase of more than 4% adjustment, but out of fear of inflation, adjustments need to wait and see the government's attitude. According to the report, many refiners have little confidence in the recent increase in allowed prices.
Affected by a series of measures to stabilize the price of diesel oil in the country, the “diesel shortage†tension is expected to ease by the end of December. The accumulated decline effect in the past two weeks has caused the dismantling of the wholesale and retail upside down in some parts of northern China such as Jing-Jin-Ji, Shandong and Liaoning. Analysts said that this may indicate that the current "diesel shortage" ushered in to ease the "turning point."
All ministries and commissions intervened on the 20th, the State Council promulgated 16 specific measures to ensure the protection of chemical fertilizer production and supply, and do a good job in the coordination of coal power and oil and gas transportation; on the 29th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released “on the current operation monitoring and coordination to promote the smooth and orderly operation of industrial production. The "news notice" proposes to actively carry out work in accordance with the principle of "different treatment, pressure to maintain and pressure," to meet the normal production energy use and transportation needs of enterprises, and to ensure normal production and use of electricity and gas by chemical fertilizer companies, so as to guarantee the normal production and use of electricity by sugar-milling enterprises. The diesel used for transporting sugarcane shall not be subject to power cuts.
On the 26th, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that oil and coal companies must undertake the necessary social responsibilities and cooperate with the government in ensuring the supply and stabilizing the overall price level. Prior to this, the Development and Reform Commission exposed six local oil refining companies, two major oil giants under the wholesale oil wholesale unit unauthorized break through the zero and spread standards, high-priced diesel sales, disrupting the order of the market price behavior.
At about the same time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) also issued a plan to require all exchanges to greatly increase the trading margins of all varieties on the existing basis, and at the same time moderately increase the range of price fluctuations of ** varieties, restrain excess trading, and curb frequent trades in short-term. In addition, the price increase plan for natural gas in many places across the country has also been temporarily suspended.