The latest global PV industry analysis report by international research institute IMSResearch shows that global PV module shipments in the first quarter fell by nearly 10%, which is the first decline since the beginning of 2009. Shipments and prices are expected to continue to decline in the second quarter, with the price of crystalline silicon components from China's second-tier suppliers dropping the fastest. Since March this year, with the policy adjustments of major demanding countries and the increasing sales pressure, the price of photovoltaic cells has been declining. At present, the latest transaction price of the solar cell spot market has fallen below 1 US dollar per watt. Market analysts believe that the uncertainty of industry growth this year has increased. According to the current supply and demand situation, the pressure of competition has increased, and the decline in the industry's gross profit level is a foregone conclusion. Mainstream manufacturers downgrade expectations In 2011, the PV market has begun to respond to policy uncertainties in major markets such as Germany and Italy. The performance of international first-line PV manufacturers in the first quarter of this year has shown a significant downward trend. At the beginning of May, First Solar of the United States announced its results. The profit for the first quarter of this year fell by 33% from the same period of the previous year, mainly due to the decline in sales prices, rising costs, and the slowdown in the growth of the European solar market. Shipments and profit levels in the first quarter were lower than previously expected and were not a case. German photovoltaic giant Q-Cells reported on May 12 that the first quarter of this year's financial report showed that due to the uncertainty of solar subsidy policy in France and Italy and the weak market demand, the company's revenue decreased by 46% to 125.1 billion euros, and the net loss reached 41.1 million euros. Q-Cells said that if demand can pick up in the second half of the year, the annual revenue is expected to be equivalent to 1.35 billion euros last year. The company had expected revenue of 1.3 billion to 1.5 billion euros this year. Domestic photovoltaic giant Yingli Green Energy also lowered its expectations. On May 11, Yingli Green Energy expects that PV product shipments in the first quarter of 2011 will drop by more than 10% from the previous quarter, and the gross profit margin will be between 27% and 27.5%, which is lower than the previous forecast of 30%-31%. According to market analysts, the current market conditions show that the solar photovoltaic industry is highly correlated with the progress of European core markets such as Germany, Italy and France. Although the Asian and North American markets continue to grow steadily, they are still unable to fill the revenue gap caused by the weak European market. Uncertainty in growth this year IMS said that the uncertainty in the Italian market is an important factor leading to the slowdown in the PV market. After announcing the suspension of subsidies, demand in the Italian market has entered a stagnant state, resulting in an increase in inventories and a drop in end-market prices. In the first quarter of 2011, the global PV module inventory has exceeded 10GW. At present, dealers have accumulated a large inventory, and many companies have started to cut prices. According to statistics from international research institute iSuppli, the global PV installed capacity in 2010 was as high as 15.7GW, a year-on-year increase of 120%. Europe is the world's most important PV market, with Germany's installed capacity accounting for nearly half of the global installed capacity, reaching 6,727 MW; Italy's installed capacity ranks second in the world, with a total of 2,850 MW. However, it is precisely because of this high growth that demanding countries such as Germany have adjusted their subsidy policies to cope with the excessive growth of installed capacity. At present, Germany adopts a policy of flexible pricing adjustments every quarter to control the markets that are growing too fast; France, Spain and other countries have also lowered their subsidies. The 2011 PV forecast report released by several international research institutions shows that the industry is expected to grow at around 20% this year, which is much lower than the growth rate of the past few years. The analysts in the industry believe that it is too early to judge the real growth of the whole year in the current situation that the major demanding countries are continuously reducing subsidies. Q-Cells also said on May 12 that there is uncertainty in the demand in the second quarter and the second half of 2011, and it is currently impossible to determine the full-year revenue target. This view also represents the typical attitude of PV manufacturers to the current market.
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