In November, the domestic maximum price of gasoline and diesel will not increase

In the first two days, some media rushed to broadcast rumors that gas prices would rise, because the basis was based on authority, experts, and scholars. The market was in an uproar: "Does gasoline rise for a while and go up again?"

According to the National Development and Reform Commission's refined oil price adjustment document, only the increase rates or declines of the three international rates of change (the ratio between the average price of the three reference crude oils and the base price before the price adjustment) exceeded 4%, can we consider whether to adjust domestic refined oil prices in combination with other factors. .

Therefore, when it can reach 4% has become the basis for predicting when domestic gasoline and diesel prices may be adjusted.

As of November 22, the average price of crude oil on the 22nd day in the three countries remained at 3%. Analysts use models to predict the window period during which domestic refined oil products may be adjusted. The model predicts a similar risk decision tree, that is, the rate of change that may occur under several circumstances, taking into account soaring oil prices, plummeting oil prices, staggered rises and falls, and price stability.

Because the international oil price is based on **, it is affected by speculation and speculation, and therefore it is volatile and unpredictable.

The forecast of the Daming model shows that if the international oil price stabilizes in the near future, there will be no opportunity for the domestic refined oil price to increase or decrease until the spring of next year. If the oil price skyrocket, at least in the first three months of the international crude oil, the rate of change in the three places will rise by 4%, and domestic oil products will have the opportunity to increase. If the oil price plummets, at least in the first half of December, the three countries' crude oil rate of change can fall below 4%; there is an opportunity for domestic product oil to be adjusted downwards. If there is a rise or fall in international oil prices, at least in the second half of December domestic refined oil products have the opportunity to increase or decrease.

Given the great uncertainty in the current international economic situation and the unpredictability of international oil prices, it is impossible to assert whether domestic refined oil prices will increase or decrease in the coming period of time. So don't belittle when the domestic gasoline uplift window opens.

One thing can be concluded: According to the above model, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will certainly not increase in November, regardless of the international oil price trend.