The oil price is difficult to bear the weight
Since the second half of 2014, under the combined effect of slowing global economic growth, imbalance of supply and demand of crude oil, geopolitical conflicts and the strengthening of the US dollar, international oil prices have fallen into a bottomless pit.
In the new year, this decline is still continuing. Just after New Year's Day, the international oil price swooped all the way, falling 10% for three consecutive days. On January 5, the US crude oil price in New York once fell below the $50 per barrel mark, setting the lowest price since April 2009. London Brent crude oil also fell to $54.19 a barrel on the same day, the lowest since May 2009.
On January 7, due to favorable economic data, international oil prices rebounded, and both New York crude oil prices and London Brent crude oil prices rose slightly. However, the good times are not long. In less than two days, the international oil price fell again on the 9th.
The British "Financial Times" on the 7th quoted Citibank analysts as saying that the international oil market "continues to remain depressed for a long time." Professor Radar of the Department of International Economics of Renmin University of China also put forward a similar point of view in an interview with this newspaper: "In the future, the international oil price will remain at around $50 a barrel and will fluctuate."
Low prices have become the new normal of international oil prices. In this context, it is clear that the US shale gas that OPEC has "dead" for its market share has been unable to do so. According to the Wall Street Journal, the first shale oil company in the United States declared bankruptcy on January 4th because the lender refused to provide more funds.
New technology intensifies imbalance between supply and demand
In fact, the shale gas revolution triggered by technological advances is an important reason why international oil prices continue to fall.
Daniel Yekin, author of "Question: Energy Security and the Reconstruction of the Modern World," suggests that the oil market is being redefined by two factors: first, the growth rate of US oil production is staggering; second, the world economy is weaker than previously thought. , thereby squeezing demand.
“Since the second half of 2014, oil prices have fallen by more than 50% in such a short period of time, which has important implications for the US to change its energy policy,†Radar said.
Thanks to advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technology, the US shale oil and gas resources are booming, driving US crude oil and natural gas production to grow substantially. According to forecasts, US crude oil production will increase by another 150,000 barrels per day in 2015. On the last day of 2014, the US Secretary of Commerce announced that it had begun to approve applications for long-waiting export of light crude oil.
As the French newspaper Le Figaro said, "The United States has become a major producer in the global oil market." Under this fierce competition, OPEC and Russia can only continue to abide by the decision not to cut production. The two sides are combined and the downside risks in the international crude oil market are further exacerbated.
Corresponding to this is the continued downturn in global demand. Following OPEC, the International Energy Agency recently lowered its 2015 global daily demand growth forecast by 230,000 barrels to 900,000 barrels. The reduction in demand for oil consumption is a direct manifestation of the slowdown in economic growth.
The radar pointed out that the world economy has clearly differentiated in the past two years. In addition to the improvement of the US economy, the economic growth rate of other large economies in the world is actually decelerating. Although major economies are trying to adjust their economic structure, they are looking for new economic growth points. However, it seems that the restructuring of the global economy is still difficult, especially the upgrading and upgrading of traditional industries has not been completed, which in turn has curbed the expansion of global energy demand.
Shale gas foreground or shadow
As international oil prices have repeatedly hit record lows, the previous optimism that the fall in oil prices will drive the global economic recovery is gradually being replaced by more fear. The United States, which enjoys the benefits of falling oil prices, is also facing more and more thorny issues: low oil prices are making US shale oil producers "compressive." According to reports, only four of the 18 shale oil producing areas in the United States can barely lose money.
“The shale business’s pace of growth and production are both indigested.†Shell Oil’s CEO had previously expressed concern about the sluggish business.
Most energy experts believe that if New York oil prices fall by 10 to 20 US dollars from the level of about 80 US dollars per barrel, it will make some high-cost shale oil wells have no economic exploitation value, which will lead to the overall investment and output of US shale oil. slow. Today, the low price of $50 per barrel is clearly far beyond what many shale oil and gas industries can afford.
At the same time, the balance sheets of many shale oil companies in the United States have long been horrible. The analysis pointed out that if the international oil price continues to fall, the growth rate of these enterprises' revenues cannot offset the increase in liabilities, then more companies will quietly "die" in the falling oil prices, and the development prospects of shale oil will follow. Becasted.
Under low oil prices, it is not just shale oil that faces challenges. The development momentum of new energy technologies may also be hindered. The continued downturn in oil prices may cause new energy sources to lose competitive advantage in the short term, thereby slowing down innovation.
"At present, the future world energy pattern is still unclear, but from the perspective of global trends, the requirements for controlling energy consumption and environmental pollution will become more and more strict." Radar pointed out that in the long run, the proportion of new energy utilization will still be more The bigger the situation, the more alarming the oil-consuming countries that have benefited from this round of oil price declines, that is, not to expand the scale of traditional production models, and to relax the adjustment of economic structure and the development of new energy technologies.
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