2011 China's import and export of mechanical and electrical hardware products will gradually increase

In 2011, China’s exports of electromechanical products steadily developed and faced many favorable conditions. The world economy is slowly recovering and emerging economies are recovering well. According to the World Bank's forecast, global trade in goods increased by 6.8% in 2011, and the history of electromechanical trade has been higher than the growth rate of global trade.

Under the background of the current slowdown in the world economic recovery, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products will still face many difficulties in 2011. Under the influence of the slowdown in world economic growth, the acceleration of domestic structural adjustment, and the high base of the same period, the growth rate of our machinery and electronic products will slow down from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the first half of 2011. In the second half of 2011, The world economy and China’s economy have stabilized, and the level of international trade and investment activity has been restored. The growth rate of imports and exports will gradually pick up.

Four major difficulties Under the background of the current slowdown in the world economic recovery, China's mechanical and electrical products exports will still face many difficulties in 2011.

First of all, as the restocking process is drawing to a close, the demand for growth in the international market is insufficient. Due to weak demand in the terminal market, the demand for “inventory cover” from US and European companies weakened, and the demand in overseas markets has contracted.

In addition, the US real estate market is weak, capacity utilization rate is low, unemployment rate is at a high of 10%, and consumer confidence index is far below the average level in the past 10 years. Some European countries are affected by the debt crisis and the economic situation deteriorates; Japan revised The leading economic indicators in August continued to decline, and the consumer confidence index fell for the third consecutive month.

Economic growth in emerging market countries is also affected by rising inflationary pressures and asset bubbles, and there is limited room for external demand growth.

The data shows that since the second half of 2010, the effect of economic stimulus policies jointly announced by various countries in the previous round has weakened, and the world economy has entered a period of “low-speed growth” from a “policy-driven rapid recovery period”.

Second, trade protectionism is heating up. In 2010, the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products organized 51 cases of trade frictions and early warnings that were brought to the attention. The cases were concentrated in Europe and Asia, involving dozens of communications equipment, home appliances, bicycles, motorcycles, auto parts and mechanical parts, etc. in China. The industries and products directly involve thousands of companies.

It can be foreseen that in 2011, the United States and European countries, including some developing countries, will only increase their investigation of the "two contradictions" of mechanical and electrical products because of their own interests. In particular, trade frictions that may be encountered for energy products such as photovoltaics will increase.

On the whole, with the continuous enhancement of the independent innovation capability of Chinese enterprises in recent years, the export of high-tech products has continued to grow, and the trade friction in export products has gradually evolved from a single product to related industries, from labor-intensive products to high-tech products, and from The single legal level is oriented towards the development of institutional systems. For example, in June 2010, the European Union initiated anti-dumping, safeguard measures and anti-subsidy investigations on my data cards. In October 2010, the U.S. government applied for the U.S. Steel Workers Federation to launch wind energy, solar energy, high-efficiency batteries and new energy vehicles for China. 301 investigation of policies and measures related to clean energy; in December 2010, at the request of the Iron and Steel Workers’ Federation, the U.S. government filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization on China’s subsidies to wind energy manufacturers.

In the new year, in addition to wind power, solar energy and other clean energy products may suffer more trade frictions, mobile phones, repeaters, radio frequency cables and other communications products are also likely to become the hardest hit by trade friction.

In addition, companies are facing increasing pressure from competition. Since the beginning of this year, many countries hope to boost their own real economy by increasing exports, and have adopted corresponding policies and measures.

The United States and Europe have successively introduced "reward-and-limit-entry" measures, implemented "reindustrialization", and encouraged the industry to return. The Obama administration of the United States even proposed a five-year "export doubling" plan. Under the background of weak growth in international market demand, competition for international competition among countries will become more intense.

Finally, the overall operating costs of companies are rising. At present, China's domestic investment growth rate is gradually falling from a high level; the external world is facing a sharp depreciation of the US dollar, triggering Japan, South Korea, Brazil and other countries to intervene in the exchange market one after another. The appreciation of *** is expected to affect companies’ orders and squeeze profits, plus the domestic labor force. Costs of raw materials and other raw materials have risen and business operating pressure has increased.

The growth rate of imports and exports will gradually rebound. Considering various factors, China's foreign trade will continue to grow in 2011, but the growth rate will decline. Under the influence of the slowdown in world economic growth, the acceleration of domestic structural adjustment, and the high base of the same period, the growth rate of our machinery and electronic products will slow down from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the first half of 2011. In the second half of 2011, The world economy and China’s economy have stabilized, and the level of international trade and investment activity has been restored. The growth rate of imports and exports will gradually pick up.

The year 2011 is the opening year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” for China's national economic and social development. The economy will maintain a steady growth, and the country will adopt a series of policies to expand domestic demand; the country will pay more attention to implementing trade diversification strategies and continue to strengthen Trade in emerging market countries and regions.

In addition, the overall comparative advantage of China's machinery and electronic products is still evident. Export products cover a wide range. From labor-intensive mechanical products with obvious traditional advantages to high-tech products with high technological content, the ability to resist fluctuations in external demand and spread risks is strong. Help maintain the overall stability of exports.

It is estimated that the total export of machinery and electronic products in China will increase by about 15% over 2010. Judging from the trade pattern, China’s trade production mainly comes from processing trade, while most of the products that implement processing trade are electromechanical products. According to the proportion of processing trade in electromechanical trade, the electromechanical surplus in 2011 will narrow to US$160 billion. about.