This year, near the end of the year, China’s macroeconomic recovery is in good momentum, especially in the second half of the year, which is better than most people expected. Therefore, the current economics industry's forecast of China's economic growth is generally more optimistic than the beginning of the year. In particular, it is worth mentioning that the general recovery of the European, American and Japanese economies has had a great impact on the stability of the Chinese economy. After two consecutive years of negative growth in China’s foreign trade exports, this year has turned positive. Some people estimate that the contribution to GDP growth is 0.5 percentage points, which should not be underestimated.
At present, the main controversy in the economics field focuses on the development trend: whether China's economy is at the beginning of a new rising cycle, or at the bottom of the L-shaped, maintaining a fairly long period of steady development. Some economists also believe that, given the many uncertainties in economic development (such as changes in the external economic environment), this steady development will not be a horizontal straight line like the L-shaped base, but a curve that fluctuates forward (for example Fluctuating around 6% GDP growth rate).
The overall judgment of China's mainstream economics on the macroeconomic situation is that the current downward trend of GDP has been basically curbed, and it is currently in a phase of stabilization and stabilization. In the future, it will maintain a fairly stable period of development at the bottom of the L shape. It is also clearly pointed out that the development trend of China's economic operation cannot be U-shaped, and it is even more unlikely to be V-shaped.
1. In 2017, China's tool market maintained a good development trend of both production and demand. On the basis of the decline and stability in 2016, after entering 2017, the tool market has taken on a new look. Foreign companies and domestic enterprises have achieved the same sales revenue. Up to 20% faster growth. Looking at China's tool market, it has stopped falling and stabilized since the second half of 2016, and there has been a clear recovery. So far, from the development trend of three consecutive quarters this year, it shows greater stability than the partial rebound in 2014. However, judging from the macroeconomic pattern of China, the possibility of certain fluctuations in the second half of the year is not ruled out.
At that time, some reservations about the economic recovery prospects were based on the analysis of China's mainstream economics: in view of this rebound, the main driving force is policy (large investment and cyclical (capacity cycle and inventory cycle) impact-oriented factors Of course, it also includes the impact of the progress of the majority of enterprises in business management and structural adjustment in recent years. The overall judgment is that the momentum of stabilization is better, new kinetic energy is beginning to emerge, but the foundation is not strong enough, so the possibility of the decline of growth momentum in the second half of the year is not ruled out. As a result, some macro indicators actually showed some fluctuations in the middle of the year, but then gradually stabilized. The optimists believe that this shows the "resilience" of China's economy. But there is also the opposite view that it is under the influence of many uncertain factors. The economic stability has shown relative vulnerability. By contrast, the performance of my tool market this year is better than the overall level of the macro economy.
Entering 2017, China's tool market has always maintained a good development trend of both production and demand, and there has been no obvious fluctuations (see Figure 1, Figure 2). Figure 1 is based on the industry monthly statistical express report production (about 40 member companies participate in the traditional tool enterprises), Figure 2 is based on the industry quarterly statistical report (about 85 members, including new tool companies in recent years). It can be seen that the trends of the two figures are consistent. However, Figure 2 shows a higher year-on-year growth, which represents the market effect of the rapid transformation and upgrading of new tool companies.
The development trend of China's tool market to maintain stable high growth this year shows that our service target-machine manufacturing industry has performed well in this round of economic recovery. In addition to popular sectors such as passenger cars, power generation equipment, aerospace, rail transit, and communications electronics that have maintained steady growth in recent years, the sectors that have been severely cold in the economic downturn in recent years have also seen dramatic turnarounds this year. For example, in the heavy truck segment of commercial vehicles, sales volume suffered a sharp decline in the first half of 2015-2016. In 2015, sales of heavy trucks in Shaanxi Automobile fell by nearly 40% year-on-year, and sales of Futian medium and heavy trucks fell by more than 30%. From January to September this year, China’s heavy truck sales totaled 868,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 76%. Especially in July-September, the heavy truck market has maintained a year-on-year increase of more than 80% for three consecutive months. Another example: the recovery of the excavator industry began in February 2016, the growth rate turned from negative to positive, from August 2016, the trend of low growth rate, the growth rate reached 45%, and began this round of high growth in September. The 25 mainframe manufacturing companies that were included in the statistics from January to September 2017, a year-on-year increase of 100.1%.
Internationally, transnational tool companies have also been deeply impressed by the positive changes in the Chinese tool market over the past year. For example, the financial statistics bulletin issued by Machining Solution, the tool division of Sandvik, the world's largest multinational tool group, shows that the company's sales in China began to change from negative to positive in the third quarter of last year, and increased slightly in the fourth quarter. This year, sales for three consecutive quarters. High growth. The company’s third-quarter communiqué pointed out that due to the overall economic recovery of major economies in the world, manufacturing demand for tools has increased significantly. Company orders increased by 11% and sales revenue increased by 10%. Among them, sales revenue increased by 9% in Europe, North America increased by 9%, and Asia increased by 14%. It is also pointed out that the reason for the fact that Asian sales growth is much higher than other regions is due to strong support from most sectors of Chinese manufacturing.
It can be seen that in the current economic recovery, most of China's manufacturing sector resumed growth and remained stable and sustained, and some sectors rebounded very strongly.
Second, China's economy has turned to a high-quality development stage, and the tool industry's transformation and upgrading has become more urgent. 1. China's acceleration of the pace of development of advanced manufacturing industry is the biggest opportunity and challenge for the tool industry. The 19th report pointed out: "To build a modern economic system, we must The focus of economic development is on the real economy, and the improvement of the quality of the supply system is the main direction, which significantly enhances China's economic quality advantages. Accelerate the construction of manufacturing power and accelerate the development of advanced manufacturing."
We have noticed that the biggest point of view of the financial crisis in the past decade is that all countries attach great importance to the development of advanced manufacturing. Although some sectors of the global manufacturing industry have also been affected by the crisis, such as: mining, infrastructure, oil, shipbuilding, heavy and so on. However, there are also many sectors that have maintained steady growth, such as: aerospace, passenger cars, power generation equipment, medical equipment, rail transit, etc. In the past year, the general economic recovery in developed countries has caused the demand for energy and mining sectors that have been cold for many years to rise sharply. Since the tool industry is the service industry in the entire machinery manufacturing industry, these fluctuations have been transmitted to the tool companies that have been partially ironed out anyway. Overall, the demand for the various sectors of the manufacturing sector has fluctuated significantly in the last decade. However, the sales revenue of global cutting tools has shown a steady growth, with an annual growth rate of between 2% and 6%. In general, countries attach importance to the development of advanced manufacturing, and opportunities for the tool industry are greater than challenges. From the perspective of development trends, tool companies will keep pace with the times with the pace of manufacturing modernization and open up more brilliant development prospects.
2. China's economy has turned to a high-quality development stage, and the transformation and upgrading of the tool industry has increased the sense of urgency. The contradiction of the lack of a strong leading enterprise in the whole industry has emerged. This year, China's tool companies have maintained a good momentum of production and sales for three consecutive quarters. The growth rate of more than 20% is a rare good year in history. The emergence of this boom in production and sales is clearly a function of the country’s steady growth measures. However, in addition to this, the majority of tool companies have made great progress in business management, structural adjustment and industrial upgrading in recent years, and it is also an important factor. Therefore, the foundation for this recovery is solid and there is hope for further stable growth. But at the same time, we must be soberly aware that the main challenges facing the domestic tool industry have not changed. That is: the supply of modern and efficient tools that are urgently needed for the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry, the supply and service capacity is still seriously insufficient; the phenomenon of overcapacity of low-end standard tools has not been completely reversed. The dominance of imported cutting tools in the high-end demand sector of manufacturing has not been fundamentally shaken.
What kind of efforts should the tool industry make to change this backward situation? It should be said that in the past five years, the pace of transformation and upgrading of domestic tool companies is still not small. In addition to the continuous upgrading of state-owned large and medium-sized enterprises, a large number of private enterprises aiming at serving high-end manufacturing have emerged as the times require and flourished. Adding up the investment scale is also very impressive. The effect is that import substitution has made significant progress, but there have also been confusing situations: First, the dominance of imported tools in the high-end demand sector of manufacturing has not been fundamentally shaken; second, several In the past years, new and upgraded tool companies have imported a large number of advanced equipment, and some have hired foreign experts. It has taken a lot of effort, but the products that have come out have not really branded at the high end, but have established a firm foothold and appearance. Contrary to the situation of multinational companies, but squeezed in the low-end market to fight the price war, the days have not been specialized in small and micro enterprises special products.
Where is the problem? From the experience of foreign development, there are two types of modern tool companies that can survive in the fierce competition: one is a small and micro enterprise with technical expertise, and the number is large, all over the field. The days are good; the other is the leading enterprise, which is characterized by “high starting point, large investment, large-scale, internationalizationâ€. Therefore, the strength of the enterprise is sufficient to compete with multinational groups and lead the industry together. . There are only ten such companies in the world, which are distributed in the three manufacturing bases of Europe, America and Japan. The annual sales revenue limit is more than 1 billion US dollars. The reason for the polarization of foreign tool companies is that after the manufacturing industry enters the stage of modernization, it emphasizes the emphasis on main business and social cooperation. Tool companies have changed dramatically in the way they serve the manufacturing industry. From simply providing tools to providing a total solution, the tool companies have two levels of differentiation. Some enterprises that do not slip, do not go high, do not climb, and live in a bad state, most of which are merged by multinational groups. Foreign practical experience should have a good reference for the future development of China's tool industry.
The topic will return to China. As a global manufacturing powerhouse, China's tool industry should develop in tandem with modern advanced manufacturing to meet its new needs. But the grim reality is that the development of our tool industry is half a beat slower than the manufacturing industry. The consequence is that imported tools have always dominated the high-end manufacturing industry, posing a serious challenge to the survival and development of the majority of tool companies. From the international experience, the biggest bottleneck faced by China's tool industry in the current transformation and upgrading is the lack of one or two powerful leading-edge tool companies, and shouldering the heavy responsibility of countering multinational groups and leading domestic enterprises. It is necessary to make up this short board in order to fundamentally change the face and achieve a leap in the service level of the manufacturing industry.
3. The reasons that affect the emergence of powerful leading enterprises in China's tool industry are not the lack of funds, technology and talents, but institutional obstacles. It is necessary to break through the tool industry under the guidance of the central reform policy. Currently, a very prominent status quo is the key backbone. Most enterprises are state-owned or holding companies. However, in order to establish several powerful leading enterprises in these enterprises, it is necessary to break some institutional obstacles, cultivate a real entrepreneur, and maintain the sustainable competitiveness of the company.
The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee adopted a decision on comprehensively deepening several major issues of reform, and reiterated that the market should play a decisive role in resource allocation. This is our program and foundation for advancing change and reform. At the same time, regarding the reform of state-owned enterprises, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee re-proposed to actively develop a mixed-ownership economy and pointed out the specific operational direction. At the same time, there are many examples of success in this area. Gree air-conditioners and Vanke Real Estate, which are well-known, are all large-scale enterprises that have sold over 100 billion yuan. They have achieved state-owned assets but are not holding companies. They have removed administrative control and played the role of the board of directors, which has made Dong Mingzhu and Wang Shi outstanding. Entrepreneur's ability to grow and develop talents is remarkable. The latest development in this regard is that CCTV recently reported on the establishment of a technological innovation platform by the Xi'an Institute of Optics and Mechanics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences to attract talents and build innovative enterprises. In particular, it emphasizes that the optical machine is determined to participate in the holding of shares, leaving a broad space for entrepreneurs to exert their talents.
These successful experiences and public opinion orientations are worthy of attention and reference from the tool industry.
At present, the main controversy in the economics field focuses on the development trend: whether China's economy is at the beginning of a new rising cycle, or at the bottom of the L-shaped, maintaining a fairly long period of steady development. Some economists also believe that, given the many uncertainties in economic development (such as changes in the external economic environment), this steady development will not be a horizontal straight line like the L-shaped base, but a curve that fluctuates forward (for example Fluctuating around 6% GDP growth rate).
The overall judgment of China's mainstream economics on the macroeconomic situation is that the current downward trend of GDP has been basically curbed, and it is currently in a phase of stabilization and stabilization. In the future, it will maintain a fairly stable period of development at the bottom of the L shape. It is also clearly pointed out that the development trend of China's economic operation cannot be U-shaped, and it is even more unlikely to be V-shaped.
1. In 2017, China's tool market maintained a good development trend of both production and demand. On the basis of the decline and stability in 2016, after entering 2017, the tool market has taken on a new look. Foreign companies and domestic enterprises have achieved the same sales revenue. Up to 20% faster growth. Looking at China's tool market, it has stopped falling and stabilized since the second half of 2016, and there has been a clear recovery. So far, from the development trend of three consecutive quarters this year, it shows greater stability than the partial rebound in 2014. However, judging from the macroeconomic pattern of China, the possibility of certain fluctuations in the second half of the year is not ruled out.
At that time, some reservations about the economic recovery prospects were based on the analysis of China's mainstream economics: in view of this rebound, the main driving force is policy (large investment and cyclical (capacity cycle and inventory cycle) impact-oriented factors Of course, it also includes the impact of the progress of the majority of enterprises in business management and structural adjustment in recent years. The overall judgment is that the momentum of stabilization is better, new kinetic energy is beginning to emerge, but the foundation is not strong enough, so the possibility of the decline of growth momentum in the second half of the year is not ruled out. As a result, some macro indicators actually showed some fluctuations in the middle of the year, but then gradually stabilized. The optimists believe that this shows the "resilience" of China's economy. But there is also the opposite view that it is under the influence of many uncertain factors. The economic stability has shown relative vulnerability. By contrast, the performance of my tool market this year is better than the overall level of the macro economy.
Entering 2017, China's tool market has always maintained a good development trend of both production and demand, and there has been no obvious fluctuations (see Figure 1, Figure 2). Figure 1 is based on the industry monthly statistical express report production (about 40 member companies participate in the traditional tool enterprises), Figure 2 is based on the industry quarterly statistical report (about 85 members, including new tool companies in recent years). It can be seen that the trends of the two figures are consistent. However, Figure 2 shows a higher year-on-year growth, which represents the market effect of the rapid transformation and upgrading of new tool companies.
The development trend of China's tool market to maintain stable high growth this year shows that our service target-machine manufacturing industry has performed well in this round of economic recovery. In addition to popular sectors such as passenger cars, power generation equipment, aerospace, rail transit, and communications electronics that have maintained steady growth in recent years, the sectors that have been severely cold in the economic downturn in recent years have also seen dramatic turnarounds this year. For example, in the heavy truck segment of commercial vehicles, sales volume suffered a sharp decline in the first half of 2015-2016. In 2015, sales of heavy trucks in Shaanxi Automobile fell by nearly 40% year-on-year, and sales of Futian medium and heavy trucks fell by more than 30%. From January to September this year, China’s heavy truck sales totaled 868,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 76%. Especially in July-September, the heavy truck market has maintained a year-on-year increase of more than 80% for three consecutive months. Another example: the recovery of the excavator industry began in February 2016, the growth rate turned from negative to positive, from August 2016, the trend of low growth rate, the growth rate reached 45%, and began this round of high growth in September. The 25 mainframe manufacturing companies that were included in the statistics from January to September 2017, a year-on-year increase of 100.1%. Internationally, transnational tool companies have also been deeply impressed by the positive changes in the Chinese tool market over the past year. For example, the financial statistics bulletin issued by Machining Solution, the tool division of Sandvik, the world's largest multinational tool group, shows that the company's sales in China began to change from negative to positive in the third quarter of last year, and increased slightly in the fourth quarter. This year, sales for three consecutive quarters. High growth. The company’s third-quarter communiqué pointed out that due to the overall economic recovery of major economies in the world, manufacturing demand for tools has increased significantly. Company orders increased by 11% and sales revenue increased by 10%. Among them, sales revenue increased by 9% in Europe, North America increased by 9%, and Asia increased by 14%. It is also pointed out that the reason for the fact that Asian sales growth is much higher than other regions is due to strong support from most sectors of Chinese manufacturing.
It can be seen that in the current economic recovery, most of China's manufacturing sector resumed growth and remained stable and sustained, and some sectors rebounded very strongly.
Second, China's economy has turned to a high-quality development stage, and the tool industry's transformation and upgrading has become more urgent. 1. China's acceleration of the pace of development of advanced manufacturing industry is the biggest opportunity and challenge for the tool industry. The 19th report pointed out: "To build a modern economic system, we must The focus of economic development is on the real economy, and the improvement of the quality of the supply system is the main direction, which significantly enhances China's economic quality advantages. Accelerate the construction of manufacturing power and accelerate the development of advanced manufacturing."
We have noticed that the biggest point of view of the financial crisis in the past decade is that all countries attach great importance to the development of advanced manufacturing. Although some sectors of the global manufacturing industry have also been affected by the crisis, such as: mining, infrastructure, oil, shipbuilding, heavy and so on. However, there are also many sectors that have maintained steady growth, such as: aerospace, passenger cars, power generation equipment, medical equipment, rail transit, etc. In the past year, the general economic recovery in developed countries has caused the demand for energy and mining sectors that have been cold for many years to rise sharply. Since the tool industry is the service industry in the entire machinery manufacturing industry, these fluctuations have been transmitted to the tool companies that have been partially ironed out anyway. Overall, the demand for the various sectors of the manufacturing sector has fluctuated significantly in the last decade. However, the sales revenue of global cutting tools has shown a steady growth, with an annual growth rate of between 2% and 6%. In general, countries attach importance to the development of advanced manufacturing, and opportunities for the tool industry are greater than challenges. From the perspective of development trends, tool companies will keep pace with the times with the pace of manufacturing modernization and open up more brilliant development prospects.
2. China's economy has turned to a high-quality development stage, and the transformation and upgrading of the tool industry has increased the sense of urgency. The contradiction of the lack of a strong leading enterprise in the whole industry has emerged. This year, China's tool companies have maintained a good momentum of production and sales for three consecutive quarters. The growth rate of more than 20% is a rare good year in history. The emergence of this boom in production and sales is clearly a function of the country’s steady growth measures. However, in addition to this, the majority of tool companies have made great progress in business management, structural adjustment and industrial upgrading in recent years, and it is also an important factor. Therefore, the foundation for this recovery is solid and there is hope for further stable growth. But at the same time, we must be soberly aware that the main challenges facing the domestic tool industry have not changed. That is: the supply of modern and efficient tools that are urgently needed for the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry, the supply and service capacity is still seriously insufficient; the phenomenon of overcapacity of low-end standard tools has not been completely reversed. The dominance of imported cutting tools in the high-end demand sector of manufacturing has not been fundamentally shaken.
What kind of efforts should the tool industry make to change this backward situation? It should be said that in the past five years, the pace of transformation and upgrading of domestic tool companies is still not small. In addition to the continuous upgrading of state-owned large and medium-sized enterprises, a large number of private enterprises aiming at serving high-end manufacturing have emerged as the times require and flourished. Adding up the investment scale is also very impressive. The effect is that import substitution has made significant progress, but there have also been confusing situations: First, the dominance of imported tools in the high-end demand sector of manufacturing has not been fundamentally shaken; second, several In the past years, new and upgraded tool companies have imported a large number of advanced equipment, and some have hired foreign experts. It has taken a lot of effort, but the products that have come out have not really branded at the high end, but have established a firm foothold and appearance. Contrary to the situation of multinational companies, but squeezed in the low-end market to fight the price war, the days have not been specialized in small and micro enterprises special products.
Where is the problem? From the experience of foreign development, there are two types of modern tool companies that can survive in the fierce competition: one is a small and micro enterprise with technical expertise, and the number is large, all over the field. The days are good; the other is the leading enterprise, which is characterized by “high starting point, large investment, large-scale, internationalizationâ€. Therefore, the strength of the enterprise is sufficient to compete with multinational groups and lead the industry together. . There are only ten such companies in the world, which are distributed in the three manufacturing bases of Europe, America and Japan. The annual sales revenue limit is more than 1 billion US dollars. The reason for the polarization of foreign tool companies is that after the manufacturing industry enters the stage of modernization, it emphasizes the emphasis on main business and social cooperation. Tool companies have changed dramatically in the way they serve the manufacturing industry. From simply providing tools to providing a total solution, the tool companies have two levels of differentiation. Some enterprises that do not slip, do not go high, do not climb, and live in a bad state, most of which are merged by multinational groups. Foreign practical experience should have a good reference for the future development of China's tool industry.
The topic will return to China. As a global manufacturing powerhouse, China's tool industry should develop in tandem with modern advanced manufacturing to meet its new needs. But the grim reality is that the development of our tool industry is half a beat slower than the manufacturing industry. The consequence is that imported tools have always dominated the high-end manufacturing industry, posing a serious challenge to the survival and development of the majority of tool companies. From the international experience, the biggest bottleneck faced by China's tool industry in the current transformation and upgrading is the lack of one or two powerful leading-edge tool companies, and shouldering the heavy responsibility of countering multinational groups and leading domestic enterprises. It is necessary to make up this short board in order to fundamentally change the face and achieve a leap in the service level of the manufacturing industry.
3. The reasons that affect the emergence of powerful leading enterprises in China's tool industry are not the lack of funds, technology and talents, but institutional obstacles. It is necessary to break through the tool industry under the guidance of the central reform policy. Currently, a very prominent status quo is the key backbone. Most enterprises are state-owned or holding companies. However, in order to establish several powerful leading enterprises in these enterprises, it is necessary to break some institutional obstacles, cultivate a real entrepreneur, and maintain the sustainable competitiveness of the company.
The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee adopted a decision on comprehensively deepening several major issues of reform, and reiterated that the market should play a decisive role in resource allocation. This is our program and foundation for advancing change and reform. At the same time, regarding the reform of state-owned enterprises, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee re-proposed to actively develop a mixed-ownership economy and pointed out the specific operational direction. At the same time, there are many examples of success in this area. Gree air-conditioners and Vanke Real Estate, which are well-known, are all large-scale enterprises that have sold over 100 billion yuan. They have achieved state-owned assets but are not holding companies. They have removed administrative control and played the role of the board of directors, which has made Dong Mingzhu and Wang Shi outstanding. Entrepreneur's ability to grow and develop talents is remarkable. The latest development in this regard is that CCTV recently reported on the establishment of a technological innovation platform by the Xi'an Institute of Optics and Mechanics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences to attract talents and build innovative enterprises. In particular, it emphasizes that the optical machine is determined to participate in the holding of shares, leaving a broad space for entrepreneurs to exert their talents.
These successful experiences and public opinion orientations are worthy of attention and reference from the tool industry.
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