The World Economic Forum's 2014 annual meeting ended in Davos, Switzerland on the 25th. Since the opening of the annual meeting on the 22nd, more than 2,500 elites from all walks of life in the world have been in the ice and snow towns to discuss the world. This four-day "storm of thought" vaguely outlines the four major trends in world economic development.
Trend 1: Developed economies
Return to the global "engine"
The global economy is in the process of a solid recovery, and the pace of recovery in advanced economies has exceeded expectations. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Lagarde sent this signal at the annual meeting on the outlook for the world economy.
According to various data, since the spring of last year, the US economy has recovered moderately, and the Eurozone economy has gradually stepped out of recession. The World Bank’s Global Economic Outlook report released in mid-January this year showed that the annual growth rate of advanced economies will rise from 1.3% last year to 2.2%. Among them, the US economic growth rate will rise to 2.8%, and the euro zone economy will rise from negative 0.4% to 1.1%. Just one day before the opening of the Davos Forum, the IMF also raised the growth forecast for developed economies this year to 2.2%.
World Bank President Kim Min Jong said that in the past five years, the world economy has been relying on the engine of emerging economies; now, advanced economies will re-emerge as another engine of world economic growth.
Trend 2: Emerging economies
Growth rhythm adjustment
While the recovery momentum of developed economies is gradually strengthening, many emerging economies have experienced slower growth and more difficult growth due to the structural problems of their own economies and the spillover effects of monetary policy adjustments in developed countries. "Become the subject of the current economic situation in emerging economies."
According to Zhu Min, vice president of the IMF, the main risks faced by emerging economies include that the growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies is unlikely to rebound sharply in the short term; the era of soaring commodity prices has ended, and the days of resource-rich countries are good. It has passed; structural changes in the world economy have fundamentally affected emerging economies.
However, the potential of emerging economies cannot be underestimated. Roubini, a professor at the Stern School of Business at New York University, said that emerging economies appear to be suffering from a "middle-age crisis," but they have huge population and consumer markets, and structural reforms and urbanization and industrialization are underway. There are many reasons to be optimistic about their future growth prospects." Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics in 2001, believes that emerging economies have the flexibility and adaptability to adapt to the current environment and change their growth model.
Brazilian President Rousseff made it clear at the Davos Forum that in the post-crisis era, emerging economies will continue to play a key role in promoting global growth, and it is not easy to say that emerging economies are losing their vitality.
Trend 3: US and Europe start
Re-industrialization process
British Prime Minister David Cameron revealed in Davos on the 24th that in 2013 more than 10% of the UK's small and medium-sized enterprises moved from the emerging economies back to the UK. He also stressed that the relocation of enterprises will help the country's economic growth, and European countries should introduce measures to encourage enterprises to move back to the nest.
Cameron’s remarks reflect that Europe is advancing the process of re-industrialization. On the opening day of the annual meeting of the Davos Forum, the European Commission issued a press communiqué and an action plan, calling on member states and the European Parliament to work hard to achieve "European re-industrialization." The European Commission hopes to increase the ratio of industrial output to GDP from 15.1% in 2013 to 20% in 2020.
The "re-industrialization" process in the United States is also gradually progressing. After the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, adjusting and upgrading the traditional manufacturing structure and competitiveness, and developing high-tech industries became the focus of the US adjustment of the economic structure. A survey recently showed that more than one-third of US manufacturers are considering moving their factories back to China from China.
Trend 4: Shale Gas Revolution
Reinventing energy maps
After the outbreak of the financial crisis, an energy revolution quietly emerged in the midst of the US response to the crisis. The United States took the lead in achieving technological breakthroughs in shale gas mining, continuously improving energy self-sufficiency, and energy prices have fallen. This “shale gas revolution†has had a profound impact on reshaping the global energy landscape.
Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that the development and utilization of shale gas has changed the role of countries in energy trade, such as the United States gradually changing from an energy importing country to an energy source. export country. In addition, the global energy trade roadmap has also changed. In Canada, for example, the country has mainly exported oil and natural gas to the United States for many years, and now it must look to Asia. The Middle East oil and gas sales market will also shift from the US and Europe to East Asian countries such as China and India.
However, Europe is still cautious about mining shale gas, and countries such as France have not joined the tide for environmental considerations. At the Davos Forum, Cameron called for shale gas development to bring new opportunities for economic development. The EU should not impose too many restrictions on the development of this natural gas resource in European countries. Some European oil and gas exploration giants are also looking forward to the lifting of shale gas mining.
Trend 1: Developed economies
Return to the global "engine"
The global economy is in the process of a solid recovery, and the pace of recovery in advanced economies has exceeded expectations. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Lagarde sent this signal at the annual meeting on the outlook for the world economy.
According to various data, since the spring of last year, the US economy has recovered moderately, and the Eurozone economy has gradually stepped out of recession. The World Bank’s Global Economic Outlook report released in mid-January this year showed that the annual growth rate of advanced economies will rise from 1.3% last year to 2.2%. Among them, the US economic growth rate will rise to 2.8%, and the euro zone economy will rise from negative 0.4% to 1.1%. Just one day before the opening of the Davos Forum, the IMF also raised the growth forecast for developed economies this year to 2.2%.
World Bank President Kim Min Jong said that in the past five years, the world economy has been relying on the engine of emerging economies; now, advanced economies will re-emerge as another engine of world economic growth.
Trend 2: Emerging economies
Growth rhythm adjustment
While the recovery momentum of developed economies is gradually strengthening, many emerging economies have experienced slower growth and more difficult growth due to the structural problems of their own economies and the spillover effects of monetary policy adjustments in developed countries. "Become the subject of the current economic situation in emerging economies."
According to Zhu Min, vice president of the IMF, the main risks faced by emerging economies include that the growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies is unlikely to rebound sharply in the short term; the era of soaring commodity prices has ended, and the days of resource-rich countries are good. It has passed; structural changes in the world economy have fundamentally affected emerging economies.
However, the potential of emerging economies cannot be underestimated. Roubini, a professor at the Stern School of Business at New York University, said that emerging economies appear to be suffering from a "middle-age crisis," but they have huge population and consumer markets, and structural reforms and urbanization and industrialization are underway. There are many reasons to be optimistic about their future growth prospects." Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics in 2001, believes that emerging economies have the flexibility and adaptability to adapt to the current environment and change their growth model.
Brazilian President Rousseff made it clear at the Davos Forum that in the post-crisis era, emerging economies will continue to play a key role in promoting global growth, and it is not easy to say that emerging economies are losing their vitality.
Trend 3: US and Europe start
Re-industrialization process
British Prime Minister David Cameron revealed in Davos on the 24th that in 2013 more than 10% of the UK's small and medium-sized enterprises moved from the emerging economies back to the UK. He also stressed that the relocation of enterprises will help the country's economic growth, and European countries should introduce measures to encourage enterprises to move back to the nest.
Cameron’s remarks reflect that Europe is advancing the process of re-industrialization. On the opening day of the annual meeting of the Davos Forum, the European Commission issued a press communiqué and an action plan, calling on member states and the European Parliament to work hard to achieve "European re-industrialization." The European Commission hopes to increase the ratio of industrial output to GDP from 15.1% in 2013 to 20% in 2020.
The "re-industrialization" process in the United States is also gradually progressing. After the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, adjusting and upgrading the traditional manufacturing structure and competitiveness, and developing high-tech industries became the focus of the US adjustment of the economic structure. A survey recently showed that more than one-third of US manufacturers are considering moving their factories back to China from China.
Trend 4: Shale Gas Revolution
Reinventing energy maps
After the outbreak of the financial crisis, an energy revolution quietly emerged in the midst of the US response to the crisis. The United States took the lead in achieving technological breakthroughs in shale gas mining, continuously improving energy self-sufficiency, and energy prices have fallen. This “shale gas revolution†has had a profound impact on reshaping the global energy landscape.
Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that the development and utilization of shale gas has changed the role of countries in energy trade, such as the United States gradually changing from an energy importing country to an energy source. export country. In addition, the global energy trade roadmap has also changed. In Canada, for example, the country has mainly exported oil and natural gas to the United States for many years, and now it must look to Asia. The Middle East oil and gas sales market will also shift from the US and Europe to East Asian countries such as China and India.
However, Europe is still cautious about mining shale gas, and countries such as France have not joined the tide for environmental considerations. At the Davos Forum, Cameron called for shale gas development to bring new opportunities for economic development. The EU should not impose too many restrictions on the development of this natural gas resource in European countries. Some European oil and gas exploration giants are also looking forward to the lifting of shale gas mining.
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