In 2010, the overall market performance of photovoltaic equipment-related listed companies was outstanding. Among them, Jinggong Technology (002006, stocks) has turned stock prices several times over. However, with the investment spending of PV equipment at the peak of this round, the future growth of these companies will move towards a stable period.
Solarbuzz believes that starting from the beginning of this year, the main PV consumer countries in Europe will lower their subsidies for Internet access, which will lead to the adjustment of capacity expansion plans in the second half of 2011. It is foreseeable that these changes will enable PV equipment buyers to revisit the 2012 expansion plan.
Solarbuzz monitoring data in the second quarter or for the highest investment point shows that in the first quarter of 2011, the global PV equipment spending reached a record high of US$3.7 billion. It is expected that the second quarter will be the highest point of the current PV equipment spending cycle. As PV manufacturers adjust their plans for expansion to cope with the market decline in the second half of the year, capital expenditures for photovoltaic equipment will fall sharply in the fourth quarter of 2011, and new orders for major equipment manufacturers from first-tier battery makers will gradually decrease.
However, perhaps the development of an efficient product line has provided new opportunities for suppliers of next-generation manufacturing equipment. German photovoltaic giant Q-Cells recently announced that it will upgrade its 1.1 GW battery production line in the second half of 2011, reflecting the trend of product line upgrades.
It is expected that by the first quarter of 2012, high-efficiency crystalline silicon cell production lines will account for 35% of the production capacity of crystalline silicon cells. The application of new technologies will promote the application of new types of equipment, such as ion implantation equipment from Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates, a market leader in semiconductor equipment.
Due to the lag in delivery cycle, the shipment of open orders caused the device manufacturers' revenue figures to be high in the first quarter of 2011. Solarbuzz believes that PV equipment manufacturers will re-examine the expansion plan for 2012 based on market conditions, and manufacturers investing in thin-film technology will see the next stage of investment in 2011 and 2012 when new plants are built.
Thin film photovoltaic equipment investment highlights Solarbuzz report shows that in 2011, investment in silicon-based devices (including silicon ingots, wafers, cells, and modules) is expected to increase by 31% annually, while investment in thin-film devices will increase by 71%. Among them, the investment growth based on amorphous silicon thin film and CIGS technology is the fastest, accounting for 78% of the market share of thin film technology planned for expansion. However, thin film photovoltaic currently accounts for only 10-15% of the entire photovoltaic industry, and its high investment costs have hampered its development.
It is understood that the first-line manufacturers with rapid production expansion are crystalline silicon manufacturers in Mainland China and battery manufacturers and thin film manufacturers in Taiwan. The major PV manufacturers announced their latest production targets by the end of this year, namely JA Solar 3 GW, Tianhe Solar 1.9 GW, New Sunlight (Taiwan) 1.8 GW, and Jinko Energy 1.5 GW.
In addition, thin-film solar technology ushered in a new wave of investment. During the period from the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012, there are up to 65 expansion plans for thin-film batteries, and the total capacity of the film manufacturers is expected to increase by 70% to 4.8 GW.
With the reduction of electricity price subsidy policy in major European markets, the market demand growth in 2011 is expected to be only 12%. Unbalanced supply and demand will allow battery manufacturers to adjust expansion plans in the second half of 2011, which will have a certain impact on the equipment supply chain.
Solarbuzz monitoring shows that the increase in capacity in the first quarter of this year is in line with the first-tier battery manufacturers' shipment plans, which means that there will be a significant excess of capacity supply in the PV industry this year.
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