Iron and steel raw materials market supply and demand conflicts eased

At the end of December, the domestic spot market for steel raw materials fluctuated and fluctuated, and the prices of individual varieties rose significantly. Luo Baihui believes that the imported iron ore spot market will continue to pull up in the near future; the local iron ore fines market is mixed locally; the steel billet market is undergoing a weak consolidation; the coke market is steadily rising, and the shipping market is weak. Specifically, the imported iron ore market continued its upward trend. Among them, the external disk market prices continue to surge; domestic port spot market prices continue to rise, individual market growth is still large. At present, the supply of resources in the market is relatively small. With the approaching of New Year holidays in China, the market merchants are reluctant to sell and the transaction is normal.

The daily output of crude steel fell slightly on a month-on-month basis. The pace of steel production capacity release has continued to be controlled, and average daily crude steel output has declined slightly in the current ten days. According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in the country in mid-December was 1,910,900 tons, a decrease of 34,100 tons or 1.76% compared with the 1.945 million tons in the first half of December. The average daily output of key steel companies during the same period was 1,623,300 tons, a decrease of 33,600 tons or 2.03% from 1,656.9 tons in the first quarter of December.

Off-season steel sales receipts maintained a good performance. Although the industry entered the traditional off-season, the steel sales figures have performed well since the fourth quarter. The latest data show that the daily average steel sales of the 76 key steel enterprises in mid-December was 1,177.4 tons, an increase of 5.75 percent year-on-year from 1,295,900 tons in mid-November. Ten thousand tons or 4.56%; the sales of long products in the current ten-year period were 6,877,500 tons, an increase of 4.96% from 6,552,400 tons in the middle of November; and the sales of strips and strips were 5,840,100 tons, an increase of 4.39% from 5.167 million tons in the same period in November.

The stocks of key steel companies rebounded to nearly two-month highs. The steel inventory of 76 key steel enterprises was 10.86 million tons, which was the highest level since late October. In the current ten-year period, the stocks of steel products increased by 526,600 tons or 5.1% from the 10.33 tons in the first ten days of December. The stock at the end of the ten days was equivalent to 6.75 days per day. , the chain rose by 0.17 days from the 6.59 days in early December, but was below the 12-year average of 0.48 days. The stock at the end of the ten days was equivalent to the daily sales of 8.24 days, down by 0.28 days from the 8.52 days in early December, compared with the 12-year average of 8.76. It was 0.52 days less.

The ex-factory price of steel rebounded by 2.43%. The average selling price of 76 key steel enterprises was 4,177 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 99 yuan/ton or 2.43% from the average price of 4,078 yuan/ton in the first half of December. The sales price of long products rose by 0.55% from the previous month to 3,909 yuan/ton, and the plate sales price was 4,347 yuan/ton, up by 3.14% month-on-month. The average selling price of pipes was 5,066 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as last month.

In domestic mines, the overall market performance of the domestic iron concentrates market is mixed. Most markets are stable, prices in some regions have mixed, and market prices have fluctuated. However, some domestic steel mills have increased their procurement prices for iron powder. The high price of steel billet in Tangshan was pulled back. The prices of iron concentrates in some domestic markets were weakly consolidating. Prices in some regions fluctuated slightly and the market transactions were less.

The domestic steel billet market is undergoing a weak consolidation. In some markets, billet prices have begun to decline, falling by RMB 30-40/t. The price of billet in Tangshan fell by RMB 70/ton in the morning and some RMB 20/ton in the afternoon. The current good news in the market continues to ferment, the business mentality is better, but the buyer more wait and see, the market transactions less.

The spot market for domestic coke increased steadily, with an increase of RMB 15-80/ton. The purchase price of coke in some steel mills has been raised by RMB 20-50/tonne. At present, local coke production is relatively low, but the steel market rebounds slightly. The willingness of the steel mills to make up the warehouse increases, and the downstream demand is good. The coke market is in short supply, the transaction is good, and the coke price is on the upward trend.

The domestic scrap market maintained stable operation, and individual markets pulled up, rising at RMB 30-50/t. The purchase price of scrap from individual steel mills has been raised by RMB 60/t. Affected by the first ups and downs of Tangshan billets, coupled with the off-season rebar, poor sales, traders sentiment is also cooling, the market wait and see atmosphere is strong, transactions are generally.

Prices in some regions of the domestic steel-making pig iron market rose, rising by RMB 50/t. With Tangshan billet prices appearing a weak correction, iron and steel makers in the iron and steel making market are still in a wait-and-see posture. The market circulation resources are still tight, but the market transactions are in good condition and inventory is falling significantly.

In terms of shipping, the shipping market on the 27th was weak and the overall situation was deserted. Due to the Christmas factor, the import of raw materials slowed down, which led to the overcapacity of empty ships. Currently, the freight rate from Brazil to China is US$16.268/ton, which has dropped by US$0.701/ton (15-18 million tons) this week; the shipping cost from Western Australia to China is US$7.028/ton, and it has dropped by US$1.236/ton (15-18 million tons). ). At the same time, the BDI Index is still currently quoted at 699 points, and it has fallen 67 points this week.

Investment strategy: Steel mill production capacity release continued to be controlled, off-season steel sales data also continued a good performance in the previous period, supply and demand contradictions have eased, steel prices have picked up; at the same time, the stock of key steel enterprises in the current period rose to nearly two months high In this regard, steel social stocks also rebounded by 50,000 tons to 11.77 million tons this week. We maintain the same view of the previous period and believe that the fundamentals of the industry are gradually improving and steel prices still have some room for growth.