The relationship between supply and demand is expected to reverse the soaring price of minerals within five years or will be broken. The explosive growth of global iron ore production is good. China's high profits have stimulated the exploitation and expansion of foreign mines. The ore production capacity of foreign mining companies led by the three major mines has recently emerged. The explosive growth and the tight global supply of iron ore are expected to reverse. Iron ore suppliers are increasing their production significantly. It is expected that global iron ore production and exports will grow rapidly in the next five years. In 2012, global iron ore production will reach 2.28 billion tons, and by 2015 will reach 2.7 billion tons. By then, global mines The degree of monopoly will be reduced, competition will intensify, and there will be a situation of oversupply in the market. According to the latest report mentioned above, from 2011 to 2015, the existing mining companies in Australia have announced large expansion plans, and many new mines have been put into production. If the planned production of iron ore in Australia will increase by 310 million tons within 5 years, The 700 million tons increased by the level of 400 million tons in 2010, that is, 70% in 5 years. According to the expansion plan announced by Brazil's Vale, the production capacity will reach 500 million tons (including pellets) by 2015, an increase of 61% from the current level of 310 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 12%. Not only that, but also emerging mines in India, Africa, Southeast Asia and other places have begun to put into production, and quickly release production capacity. According to the data, the three companies including Liangtuo and Vale have a total iron ore output of 61.745 million tons in 2010, accounting for 61% of the global iron ore export volume. The three major mining companies and Indian iron ore exports account for the global share. It reached 72%. According to the above report, the production statistics of the three major mines show that in 2011, the production of freshwater valleys was 339.5 million tons, Rio Tinto produced 194.49 million tons, BHP Billiton produced 143.4 million tons, and the total production was 67.78 million tons. By 2013, the production of freshwater valleys was 449 million tons. Rio Tinto produces 245 million tons, BHP Billiton produces 170 million tons, and a total of 864 million tons; in 2015, Vale produced 485 million tons, Rio Tinto produced 290 million tons, BHP Billiton produced 200 million tons, and the total output will reach 975 million by then. Ton. At the same time as the three major mines surged, one situation is worth noting. According to the report, the global iron ore output will reach 2.7 billion tons in 2015, while the total output of the three major mines will be 975 million tons, accounting for about a global production. 36%. It can be clearly seen that the share of the three major mines in the global iron ore supply will decline, and its monopoly position is expected to change. "'Thirty years of Hedong, thirty years of Hexi', just as many years ago, the three major mines required steel mills to buy ore. In recent years, the situation of iron ore prices skyrocketing will also be broken." Said this in an interview with reporters. He told reporters that from 2001 to 2002, China's economy has experienced a process of rapid growth. A large amount of infrastructure and real estate development have made China's steel industry also have a rare opportunity for development, and steel production capacity has exploded. Growth, so the demand for commodities has also increased dramatically. "The global demand for iron ore is much lower than the pace of mine expansion, which will directly lead to the end of the global demand for iron ore in short supply. The demand supply will be reversed in the future, and iron ore prices will plummet." Xu Lejiang, Chairman of Baosteel Group In an interview with the reporter, he said. Earlier, McKinsey pointed out that the compound growth rate of China's residential real estate demand for steel will fall from 9.4% in 2005 to 2010 to 4% in 2010-2015. At the same time, Citibank has predicted that the iron ore market will have an excess supply of about 50 million tons in 2014. Even if Vale cuts its 2015 iron ore output target by 10%, the bank still believes that iron ore is oversupply. Or appear in 2015. In addition, Wu Rongqing, chief engineer of the Industry Development Department of the China Mining Association, said that the iron ore projects signed and developed by Chinese companies in recent years are expected to release production capacity from 2011 to 2012 and at the latest in 2014. In this way, the proportion of equity mines will increase each year, from the current 90 million tons to about 200 million tons. At the same time, the production of domestic mines in 2015 is expected to reach 1.5 billion tons, when the external dependence of China's iron ore will drop to about 42%. It is worth noting that since the iron ore import volume and price have not appeared in the past, the whole market is weak, and the imported iron ore is generally in a situation of "priceless and no market". In addition, China's imported iron ore is becoming more diversified, and the traditional status of the three major mines is being challenged. From January to May 2011, China imported 54.53 million tons of iron ore from countries and regions other than Australia, Brazil, India and South Africa, a substantial increase of 52.4% year-on-year, accounting for 19.3% of total imports. %, while in 2010 it was only 15.6%, and the speed of improvement was very obvious. 　　 Today, the demand for iron ore in China is still strong. The quality of ore encountered by trader Zhang Zhen is by no means a single case. "Not only the quality of the emerging iron ore supply countries is poor, but the quality of the ore in Australia, Brazil and other countries is also unqualified," said Zhu Xi'an, a steel network analyst. It has been shown that in addition to high mineral prices, Chinese steel companies and traders are suffering from iron ore failure rates of up to 20% to 40%. Invasion of inferior ore with the increase of iron ore imports in China, the quality of ore is also coming. Data show that from January to June this year, Huangdao Port imported 45.11 million tons of iron ore, a total of 1482 batches. Among them, 669 batches of unqualified iron ore were detected, weighing 8.84 million tons, and the weight accounted for nearly 20% of the port's imports. At the end of July, the Huangdao Inspection and Quarantine Bureau intercepted a batch of doped Romanian iron ore and implemented the return shipment as required. "Compared with the grades of iron ore produced by the three major mines, the iron ore grades of these newly-expanded iron ore importing countries are really worrying," said Tian Xinyu, an analyst at China Steel. The reporter learned that the more difficult problem in iron ore is that the grade is low, difficult to use, and contains elements such as sulfur and phosphorus that are not conducive to smelting. For example, ore in some countries can be smelted after mineral processing. In addition, most domestic blast furnaces use refined iron ore, while 50% of imported iron ore has low iron content, and many of them cannot be directly used by domestic large-scale steelmaking blast furnaces. Zhu Xi'an said that the ore quality of large mining enterprises is relatively stable. Due to the large reserves of minerals and less impurities, there have been problems such as excessive water and short weight (that is, insufficient supply). And a person in the industry who has long been in close contact with iron ore traders said that iron content and impurity content are usually the most critical factors in the quality of ore. "If water is also a quality problem, then imported iron ore. The failure rate of 20% to 40% is not excessive. "However, this statement has not been confirmed by the authorities. Mining companies suspected of abusing trade advantages According to He Rongliang, senior steel analyst of China Merchants Circulation Productivity, if the quality of imported iron ore is unqualified, such as iron content is lower than the seller’s warranty and contract provisions, this will directly affect steel companies. The interest, because the grade decline will result in a higher fuel ratio, coke ratio, and an increase in the amount of iron slag. According to the report data, there are 215 batches of Indian mines imported from the first half of the Jingtang port, which accounted for 90.72% of the total imported Indian mines; also in the first half of the year, 554.8 of Jiangsu Nantong Port imports. Among the 10,000 tons of iron ore, 2.396 million tons were unqualified, and the unqualified rate was 43.2%, an increase of 8.3%. Tian Xinyu said that the supply of ore resources is tightening, coupled with the lack of a stable source of ore, many domestic related production companies purchase, so that the minerals of imported minerals are more and more complex. "The source is complicated, and the quality fluctuation of iron ore will definitely become larger, which will make the quality of imported iron ore difficult to guarantee." He Rongliang said that the deep reason for the unqualified import of mines is that the supply and demand sides are not in the right position. Wait, let mining companies abuse their dominant position. "The problem of the decline in the quality of imported minerals cannot be solved in the short term because it has a profound market background. It is difficult to break this imbalance if the supply and demand relationship is not improved." Some industry sources said. According to the Voice of Economics, WISCO has been subjected to four anti-dumping investigations within seven months this year. The high density is staggering, involving an amount of US$51.92 million. In fact, not only WISCO, Angang, Baosteel and some private steel enterprises are also caught in the quagmire of trade friction, but the response has emerged with a very different positive response and listen to it. Wuhan Iron and Steel Company was riddled with international lawsuits in the first half of the year, and was subjected to four anti-dumping investigations from Russia, Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand, but WISCO's performance was quite calm. A related person from the China Iron and Steel Association said that this anti-dumping investigation is not worth mentioning for WISCO, which has been victorious in all battles. WISCO has always been more active in responding to the lawsuit. It should be said that in recent years, Wu participated in these anti-dumping investigations, and all of them have won, especially for the EU, galvanizing and color coating, which is also winning for India. defeat. Compared with WISCO's positive response attitude, a private steel enterprise that was also subject to anti-dumping investigations by Brazil and Thailand chose the attitude of ostrich. Insiders of private steel enterprises: I feel that the chances of responding to the lawsuit won little, and may not win, and the annual demand for exporting to those countries is not large. The meaning of this private steel enterprise is that it is indifferent to lose markets such as Brazil and Thailand, but there is no doubt that with the rising trend of international trade protectionism, the chances of China’s steel industry import and export facing anti-dumping investigations will only rise in the future. It is obviously not a way to always ostrich policy. In fact, in addition to trade protectionism, there is another fact that cannot be ignored. Compared with developed countries such as Japan and the United States, the quality gap between most products is getting smaller and smaller, which has caused the steel industry in Southeast Asia and South America. Threat. According to the analysis of the China Steel Association, the Chinese steel industry has fallen into anti-dumping quagmire, which cannot be solved overnight. Relevant persons of China Steel Association: Nowadays more and more concentrated on high-end products, especially for home appliances and automobiles, including large-diameter oil pipes, which are hot spots that cause anti-dumping. You and foreign products have collisions. This is The inevitable result. Then there is an advantage in the price of WISCO. For example, the EU's first lawsuit refers to the cost of India as a reference and does not recognize China's market economy status. As the saying goes, the bell is still needed to ring the bell. Since it is the improvement of the structure and quality of China's steel products, it has caused some national alarm bells to frequently raise anti-dumping sticks. Then, in addition to the relevant state departments to lead the establishment of early warning mechanisms, it is natural to talk about products, such as studying the structure of steel products in importing countries, avoiding their sharp edges, and focusing on complementary products. Xu Yongbo, senior analyst at Treasure Island Steel, is even more crisp. Xu Yongbo: To improve the competitiveness of your core products, no one else can use anything other than yours. Anti-dumping is due to domestic protection, because the same products in China can be used instead. If your products are unique, there is no anti-dumping problem. In fact, the investigation of anti-dumping investigations by enterprises is not necessarily a bad thing. First of all, it shows that the products of enterprises have touched the interests of foreign countries and proved the competitiveness of enterprises. Secondly, they can take the opportunity to thoroughly understand the WTO rules and reorganize the industrial chain of enterprises. Of course, the premise is that companies are rushing to face anti-dumping investigations.
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