Potash does not continue to slide and the market is basically stable

It is understood that the domestic market demand for potash fertilizer in China has not shown much improvement. The downturn atmosphere still shrouds the market. However, prices have basically stabilized and there has been no further decline.

At present, the port Russia's red potassium price is in the range of 2500-2550 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the price of white potassium is 2600-2650 yuan. Border trade Russian red potassium prices in 2450 yuan, white potassium in 2550 yuan. Increased parking inspections in the Qinghai region, mainly at present digesting inventory. The demand in the downstream market is still deserted because the inventory of common raw materials for this year's large-scale compound fertilizer companies is relatively sufficient. SMEs also follow the market conditions to follow suit. As a result, there is no big rebound in demand before the end of the year.

The international community is also not optimistic. Recently, in the fertilizer industry conference held in the Philippines, international potash fertilizer suppliers and buyers of large and small sizes were negative about the outlook. In Southeast Asia, led by Malaysia, market prices continued to decline. Suppliers are currently reluctant to give clear quotes because once there is demand, the market will see lower prices in order to compete for buyers. Potash producers accused each other of bidding for low prices at the meeting. The addition of potassium as a leading company was not spared. At present, the standard potassium chloride CIF price has dropped to 440-450 U.S. dollars, and there are even rumors that the lowest price has reached 430 U.S. dollars, but the number of transactions at this price is not large. In the case of the new large bills in the two major markets of India and China, the international potash fertilizer market is also full of uncertainties. However, if India does not change its current subsidy policy on potash fertilizers, dealers and farmers will still be negative about the sales of potash fertilizer. In China, the negotiation of large-scale contracts is difficult to be concluded in the short term. Both sides hold different views on prices and it is difficult to reach an agreement. A few days ago, the Canadian delegation’s chief executive who visited China stated that “we have had a constructive negotiation with Chinese importers and we are expected to ship potash fertilizer to China by the end of the year.” But there are still opinions in the industry that the big contract will be delayed until next year.

Overall, the potash fertilizer market at home and abroad will continue to undergo a consolidation phase in the near future. After entering the winter, shipping difficulties will, to a certain extent, reduce the impact of inventory in the Qinghai region on the mainland market, but the new orders for border trade are still continuing. From January to October this year, the total amount of arrivals in the border trade is about 1.6 million tons. In November, it is expected that the arrival volume will be around 100,000 tons. The market has limited capacity to digest this, and it is difficult for the recent price to rebound, and will remain stable as the main line.