Resource tax changes leave opportunities for coal

On the 21st of the same day, Premier Wen Jiabao presided over the executive meeting of the State Council. On the basis of summarizing the experimental experience of crude oil and natural gas resource tax reform, the meeting decided to amend the "Provisional Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Resources Tax" and set a quota on the existing resource tax. On the basis of taxation, the method of assessing the rate of ad valorem prices will be increased to adjust the tax rates of crude oil, natural gas and other commodity resources. Resource stocks that had just emerged the previous day suffered heavy losses yesterday and were among the top losers.

The impact of crude oil, natural gas, or coal prior to the resource tax, analysts have many positive significance.

Xie Yaxuan, a macro analyst at China Merchants Securities, stated that gradual rationalization of resource prices is the last important link in price system reform. In the short term, it may cause inflationary pressures, but rationalizing resource prices will help stabilize market expectations in the long term.

“Resource tax reforms link taxation to resource prices, which in effect create an increase in resource taxes.” Bao Qing, an analyst at Donghai Securities, believes that in the long run, resource tax reform will help promote resource conservation, increase resource utilization, and ease China’s The long-term economic "investment hunger and thirst." From this perspective, the general direction of the resource tax reform should not change.

Bao Qing said that even if the current reform of the resource tax is to be promoted, the reform of the crude oil and natural gas resources tax should first be extended from the 12 western provinces to the entire country, supplemented by measures to control the price of refined oil and natural gas to a certain extent.

Speaking of the impact of resource taxes on related industries and enterprises, Bao Qing believes that resource tax reform will increase the cost of downstream raw materials due to increased mining costs. This increase in costs will be conducted down the entire industry chain, affecting the relevant industries. In the entire industry chain, the most upstream is undoubtedly mining enterprises, and the most downstream is the demand of terminals.

Hualiang-China Joint Analyst Chen Liang also believes that there is no mention of adjustments to the coal resource tax rate, but leaves a hole: "Increase the rate of assessment of the ad valorem on the basis of the existing resources tax quota measurement." In the short term, it is good, but from a longer period of time, the "boots" have not yet landed. It is not important that the “boots” of coal fail to land. The key point is whether the coal companies have cost transferability when the resource tax is introduced.

Therefore, Chen Liang proposes to upgrade the allocation of coal stocks. The reason is that apart from the upcoming traditional peak season for coal (especially for coal), there are two more than expected factors: 1. The coal accident affects the monthly national supply of coal by 3%, and the expected duration is about 1 month (may be longer) 2. If the growth rate of industrial electricity consumption does not drop sharply in the future, a large area of ​​electricity shortage will occur again this winter, and then the electricity price will be raised (Henan, Shanxi, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Guizhou in Central China are most likely to raise electricity prices). The rebound recommended varieties: Shenhuo (000933), Orchid Branch (600123), Yanzhou Coal (600188), Luan Huaneng (601699), China Shenhua (601088), coal gasification. Long-term recommendation: Kailuan shares (600,997), Yangquan Coal (600,348), Yanzhou Coal, China Coal Energy (601898), China Shenhua.

The new energy sector will benefit Bao Qing, saying that after the traditional energy and resource costs increase, the importance of alternative energy sources will gradually increase. From the current point of view, the main alternative energy sources include nuclear power, hydropower, and wind power.

The advantage of nuclear power is that there is no air pollution, no carbon emissions, the disadvantage is more waste heat, safety issues. The advantages of hydropower are clean, non-polluting and non-carbon emissions. The disadvantage is that it requires certain natural conditions; it has a greater impact on the climate. The advantages of wind power are clean, non-polluting and non-carbon emissions. The disadvantage is that it requires certain natural conditions; it is difficult to store electricity and the cost of power generation is high. The advantage of solar energy is clean, non-polluting, non-carbon emissions, and requires sunlight. The disadvantage is that the conversion rate is not high and it is difficult to store electricity.

At present, the major advantages of various clean energy sources are metropolitan cleanliness and pollution-free; and the restrictions on the widespread use of these alternative energy sources are mainly limited by technical conditions. The resource tax reform, while increasing the extraction of traditional energy sources and resources, has also objectively promoted these technological advances toward alternative energy sources.

At the same time, compared to the current energy structure of the United States, the proportion of alternative energy in China is still about 8 percentage points lower than that of the United States. Therefore, there is still room for improvement in China's energy consumption structure. Even when technological progress is not obvious, resource tax promotion can still increase the demand for alternative energy in the medium to long term.

Once the scope of resource tax reform has been promoted, we can focus on the need for innovation in related alternative energy sources and their technologies.

Related stocks that were relatively resilient yesterday include Jiangsu Shentong (002438), China Yizhong (601106), Great Wall Electric (600192), Yinxing Energy (000862), Huaneng International (600011), and Leshan Electric (600644).

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