After the copper price hit another record high in early February, the continuation of the shocks in March continued. The foreign factors such as the Japan earthquake, the Libyan war, and the European debt issue, as well as domestic monetary tightening, were the main reasons for the short-term adjustment. Under the market risk factors, the copper positions of the three major exchanges quickly emerged, and the net amount continued to fall.
At the same time, real estate data in the United States has once again declined significantly. In February, the number of new housing starts fell sharply after a 14.6% increase from the previous month, and existing home sales fell 9.6% year-on-year. New home sales fell 16.9% month-over-month. It shows that the road to recovery of real estate in the United States is still long.
For the copper market, from the beginning of December, global inventories continued to increase. Cancelled warehouse receipts continued to fall and inventory pressure began to increase. The high copper price was accompanied by a wait-and-see mood. Despite the strong growth in global industrial production, high copper prices have also weakened the market vitality. Market participants in the downstream copper industry chain have felt the pressure.
I. Review of the copper market trend in March 2011 and the general situation of the market. A. After the domestic and foreign copper prices recorded a new high in February, this month continued the downward trend of the shocks. With the increase of risk factors at home and abroad: Japan’s earthquake and the ongoing nuclear crisis; tensions in North Africa and the Middle East, Libya’s warfare has intensified; the debt crisis in Europe has come back, the rescue mechanism has not yet reached a consensus; domestic inflationary pressures have not diminished, and currency tightening has become evident. The market generally lightened up to avoid risk.
B. As of March 22, due to the influence of domestic and foreign risk factors, the copper positions of the three major exchanges continued to flow rapidly, and Shanghai copper's positions fell slightly. According to the latest CFTC position report, the total position of ** has rapidly dropped from 147,581 at the beginning of the month to 133,731 hands. Now the ** net has fallen back to 21,822 hands, but it is still at a higher position.
C. As of March 28, the stocks of the three major exchanges continued to increase. LME stocks continued to flow in December and current inventories rose to around 440,000 tons. Inventories on March 28 were 439,275 tons. Shanghai copper stocks continued to increase in September last year and total stocks were 172,222 tons as of March 25. COMEX rose to 84,725 short tons. In general, stock exchanges are showing increasing trend.
D, LME spot water in March posted a clear trend, cancellation of warehouse receipts continued to fall. Reflected by the continuous increase in inventories, the spot supply is relatively abundant, and in the case of no significant increase in demand, the supply in the later period is relatively abundant. The domestic arrivals and discounts have continued to fall rapidly.
Second, the fundamental analysis 1. Increase in reserve ratio monetary policy tightening In February 2011, the overall level of consumer prices rose by 4.9% year-on-year, unchanged from January, and the PPI increased by 7.2% year-on-year, the highest level since May last year, and the increase was 0.6% larger than that in January. The percentage points indicate that the prices of upstream products are high and inflationary pressures are still evident. As the leading indicator of CPI, the acceleration of PPI will keep CPI at a high level, and the tightening of currency is expected to be strengthened again.
The People's Bank of China decided to increase deposit reserve ratio of depository financial institutions by 0.5% from April 21, 2011. This is the fourth time this year to raise the deposit reserve ratio. After this increase, the deposit reserve ratio has reached a historical high, and the adjustment space in the later period is reduced. With the tight liquidity of banks, the probability of using interest rate increases in the later period has increased.
2. Deceleration in domestic industrial conditions is still in expansion phase According to the China Logistics and Purchasing Network, in February 2011 China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index at 52.2%, down 0.7% from the previous month and falling The month is significantly reduced.
The American Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced that the Chicago PMI for the month of February was 71.2, estimated at 68.8 for July and July. In the euro zone, the manufacturing PMI rose to 59.0 from 57.3 in February, the fastest since June 2000, and the service sector PMI in the euro zone rose to 57.2 in February from 55.9, the highest level since August 2007.
According to the above data, the domestic industrial recovery began to slow in the second half of last year, but it is still within the scope of expansion. The European and American regions have continued to expand since the second half of last year. Overall, the pulling of industrial products by demand is still relatively obvious. The advantage is that rigid demand will still limit the metal's downward adjustment in the later period.
After the financial crisis, China's manufacturing expansion continued for 24 months. The euro area continued to expand for 17 months and the United States continued to expand for 19 months. The current situation is that European and American manufacturing companies are more resilient than China.
3. U.S. New Homes Unexpectedly Starts Unexpectedly Lower Real Estate Recovery than Expected US Real Estate Market, Number of new homes started in February fell sharply after a month-on-month increase of 14.6%, a month-on-month decline of 22.5%, to 479,000, far below market expectations57 Ten thousand households. (The data for January was revised from 596,000 to 618,000). The year-on-year increase was sharply reduced to -20.8%, indicating that the US real estate market recovery is lower than our previous expectations. In February, existing home sales dropped by 9.6% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline was reduced to 2.8%, which translates into an annual rate of 4.88 million units, which is significantly lower than the 5.15 million units expected. New home sales fell by 16.9% month-over-month in February.
From the data point of view, the real estate market experienced a sharp decline in February. This indicates that the road to US real estate recovery is still long. On the other hand, since the fluctuation of real estate data has historically been relatively large, it cannot be judged that the accelerated recovery of the US economy has ended due to the decline in real estate data.
4. ** HOLD HOLDS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER LONGERING RISING TO RISK THE RISK From the latest US copper position data released on March 22, 2011 by the CFTC, it can be clearly seen that COMEX copper positions fell continuously this month, and the total holdings decreased from 147,581 at the beginning of the month to 133,713 hands. . ** Net long positions fell from 26,619 at the beginning of the month to 21,822. The monthly net increase in ** and ** total positions fell significantly, showing that under the circumstances of Japan's earthquake and the increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East and North Africa, the market generally lightened up to avoid risk.
5. Stocks rose copper prices fell pressure LME (London Exchange) copper stocks began to increase gradually from December 2010, ending the downward trend of continuous inventory for 10 months. Market inventory continued to rise this month, rising from 420,275 at the beginning of the month to 439,275 tons. In contrast, cancellation of warehouse receipts continued to decline, and the pressure on stocks continued to increase. At the same time, the LME spot gradually transitioned from premium to premium, indicating that the current spot is relatively abundant and market demand has not been significantly activated.
Third, technical analysis From a technical point of view, Shanghai copper continues to consolidate this month, after the investigation of the trend line to get support, the triangle range to shock finishing, the current support below the 70,000 yuan. Pay attention to the support situation near the trend line in the later period. If the trend line is not broken, it is expected to continue the upward trend in the later period.
IV. Market Outlook After domestic and international copper prices hit a new high in February, the monthly fluctuations continued to adjust. Foreign risk factors and domestic monetary tightening were the main reasons for the adjustment of copper prices during the month.
From the perspective of the international environment, Japan’s earthquake and nuclear leakage have gradually reduced its impact on the market, but demand for reconstruction in the later period will boost commodity prices. The situation in the Middle East and the European debt issue are still continuing. The Libyan war has caused the international crude oil price to once again stand at 100 US dollars. The grape government bond rating was lowered again. After the parliament rejected the government's new fiscal austerity plan, Prime Minister Socrates resigned. Uncertainty has once again cast a shadow over the European debt issue.
Real-time data released by the U.S. this month showed that the number of new housing starts in February dropped sharply after the month-on-month increase of 14.6%. Existing home sales fell 9.6% year-on-year, and new home sales fell 16.9% month-on-month. It shows that the recovery of US real estate is lower than our expectation.
For the copper market, from the beginning of December, global inventories continued to increase. Cancelled warehouse receipts continued to fall and inventory pressure began to increase. The high copper price was accompanied by a wait-and-see mood. Despite the strong growth in global industrial production, high copper prices have also weakened the market vitality. Market participants in the downstream copper industry chain have felt the pressure. Short-term copper prices are still likely to further explore the first-line support of 68,000 yuan, but the rigid demand of domestic copper will limit the decline in copper prices in the later period. In the medium term, with the steady increase of copper demand in other regions and countries around the world, Japan’s post-disaster reconstruction expectations are expected to rise. Accelerating trend, in the short term, the negative factors in the copper market have the upper hand, and the lower support level is around 67,000 to 68,000 yuan, and the high level is back in the late period. The trend is still mainly based on the upward movement of the shock.
At the same time, real estate data in the United States has once again declined significantly. In February, the number of new housing starts fell sharply after a 14.6% increase from the previous month, and existing home sales fell 9.6% year-on-year. New home sales fell 16.9% month-over-month. It shows that the road to recovery of real estate in the United States is still long.
For the copper market, from the beginning of December, global inventories continued to increase. Cancelled warehouse receipts continued to fall and inventory pressure began to increase. The high copper price was accompanied by a wait-and-see mood. Despite the strong growth in global industrial production, high copper prices have also weakened the market vitality. Market participants in the downstream copper industry chain have felt the pressure.
I. Review of the copper market trend in March 2011 and the general situation of the market. A. After the domestic and foreign copper prices recorded a new high in February, this month continued the downward trend of the shocks. With the increase of risk factors at home and abroad: Japan’s earthquake and the ongoing nuclear crisis; tensions in North Africa and the Middle East, Libya’s warfare has intensified; the debt crisis in Europe has come back, the rescue mechanism has not yet reached a consensus; domestic inflationary pressures have not diminished, and currency tightening has become evident. The market generally lightened up to avoid risk.
B. As of March 22, due to the influence of domestic and foreign risk factors, the copper positions of the three major exchanges continued to flow rapidly, and Shanghai copper's positions fell slightly. According to the latest CFTC position report, the total position of ** has rapidly dropped from 147,581 at the beginning of the month to 133,731 hands. Now the ** net has fallen back to 21,822 hands, but it is still at a higher position.
C. As of March 28, the stocks of the three major exchanges continued to increase. LME stocks continued to flow in December and current inventories rose to around 440,000 tons. Inventories on March 28 were 439,275 tons. Shanghai copper stocks continued to increase in September last year and total stocks were 172,222 tons as of March 25. COMEX rose to 84,725 short tons. In general, stock exchanges are showing increasing trend.
D, LME spot water in March posted a clear trend, cancellation of warehouse receipts continued to fall. Reflected by the continuous increase in inventories, the spot supply is relatively abundant, and in the case of no significant increase in demand, the supply in the later period is relatively abundant. The domestic arrivals and discounts have continued to fall rapidly.
Second, the fundamental analysis 1. Increase in reserve ratio monetary policy tightening In February 2011, the overall level of consumer prices rose by 4.9% year-on-year, unchanged from January, and the PPI increased by 7.2% year-on-year, the highest level since May last year, and the increase was 0.6% larger than that in January. The percentage points indicate that the prices of upstream products are high and inflationary pressures are still evident. As the leading indicator of CPI, the acceleration of PPI will keep CPI at a high level, and the tightening of currency is expected to be strengthened again.
The People's Bank of China decided to increase deposit reserve ratio of depository financial institutions by 0.5% from April 21, 2011. This is the fourth time this year to raise the deposit reserve ratio. After this increase, the deposit reserve ratio has reached a historical high, and the adjustment space in the later period is reduced. With the tight liquidity of banks, the probability of using interest rate increases in the later period has increased.
2. Deceleration in domestic industrial conditions is still in expansion phase According to the China Logistics and Purchasing Network, in February 2011 China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index at 52.2%, down 0.7% from the previous month and falling The month is significantly reduced.
The American Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced that the Chicago PMI for the month of February was 71.2, estimated at 68.8 for July and July. In the euro zone, the manufacturing PMI rose to 59.0 from 57.3 in February, the fastest since June 2000, and the service sector PMI in the euro zone rose to 57.2 in February from 55.9, the highest level since August 2007.
According to the above data, the domestic industrial recovery began to slow in the second half of last year, but it is still within the scope of expansion. The European and American regions have continued to expand since the second half of last year. Overall, the pulling of industrial products by demand is still relatively obvious. The advantage is that rigid demand will still limit the metal's downward adjustment in the later period.
After the financial crisis, China's manufacturing expansion continued for 24 months. The euro area continued to expand for 17 months and the United States continued to expand for 19 months. The current situation is that European and American manufacturing companies are more resilient than China.
3. U.S. New Homes Unexpectedly Starts Unexpectedly Lower Real Estate Recovery than Expected US Real Estate Market, Number of new homes started in February fell sharply after a month-on-month increase of 14.6%, a month-on-month decline of 22.5%, to 479,000, far below market expectations57 Ten thousand households. (The data for January was revised from 596,000 to 618,000). The year-on-year increase was sharply reduced to -20.8%, indicating that the US real estate market recovery is lower than our previous expectations. In February, existing home sales dropped by 9.6% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline was reduced to 2.8%, which translates into an annual rate of 4.88 million units, which is significantly lower than the 5.15 million units expected. New home sales fell by 16.9% month-over-month in February.
From the data point of view, the real estate market experienced a sharp decline in February. This indicates that the road to US real estate recovery is still long. On the other hand, since the fluctuation of real estate data has historically been relatively large, it cannot be judged that the accelerated recovery of the US economy has ended due to the decline in real estate data.
4. ** HOLD HOLDS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER LONGERING RISING TO RISK THE RISK From the latest US copper position data released on March 22, 2011 by the CFTC, it can be clearly seen that COMEX copper positions fell continuously this month, and the total holdings decreased from 147,581 at the beginning of the month to 133,713 hands. . ** Net long positions fell from 26,619 at the beginning of the month to 21,822. The monthly net increase in ** and ** total positions fell significantly, showing that under the circumstances of Japan's earthquake and the increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East and North Africa, the market generally lightened up to avoid risk.
5. Stocks rose copper prices fell pressure LME (London Exchange) copper stocks began to increase gradually from December 2010, ending the downward trend of continuous inventory for 10 months. Market inventory continued to rise this month, rising from 420,275 at the beginning of the month to 439,275 tons. In contrast, cancellation of warehouse receipts continued to decline, and the pressure on stocks continued to increase. At the same time, the LME spot gradually transitioned from premium to premium, indicating that the current spot is relatively abundant and market demand has not been significantly activated.
Third, technical analysis From a technical point of view, Shanghai copper continues to consolidate this month, after the investigation of the trend line to get support, the triangle range to shock finishing, the current support below the 70,000 yuan. Pay attention to the support situation near the trend line in the later period. If the trend line is not broken, it is expected to continue the upward trend in the later period.
IV. Market Outlook After domestic and international copper prices hit a new high in February, the monthly fluctuations continued to adjust. Foreign risk factors and domestic monetary tightening were the main reasons for the adjustment of copper prices during the month.
From the perspective of the international environment, Japan’s earthquake and nuclear leakage have gradually reduced its impact on the market, but demand for reconstruction in the later period will boost commodity prices. The situation in the Middle East and the European debt issue are still continuing. The Libyan war has caused the international crude oil price to once again stand at 100 US dollars. The grape government bond rating was lowered again. After the parliament rejected the government's new fiscal austerity plan, Prime Minister Socrates resigned. Uncertainty has once again cast a shadow over the European debt issue.
Real-time data released by the U.S. this month showed that the number of new housing starts in February dropped sharply after the month-on-month increase of 14.6%. Existing home sales fell 9.6% year-on-year, and new home sales fell 16.9% month-on-month. It shows that the recovery of US real estate is lower than our expectation.
For the copper market, from the beginning of December, global inventories continued to increase. Cancelled warehouse receipts continued to fall and inventory pressure began to increase. The high copper price was accompanied by a wait-and-see mood. Despite the strong growth in global industrial production, high copper prices have also weakened the market vitality. Market participants in the downstream copper industry chain have felt the pressure. Short-term copper prices are still likely to further explore the first-line support of 68,000 yuan, but the rigid demand of domestic copper will limit the decline in copper prices in the later period. In the medium term, with the steady increase of copper demand in other regions and countries around the world, Japan’s post-disaster reconstruction expectations are expected to rise. Accelerating trend, in the short term, the negative factors in the copper market have the upper hand, and the lower support level is around 67,000 to 68,000 yuan, and the high level is back in the late period. The trend is still mainly based on the upward movement of the shock.
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