On May 26, the National Bureau of Statistics “fixed†the current economic situation in China, indicating that the overall economy has stabilized and stabilized, and positive changes need to be consolidated.
On May 26th, the "China Economic Report" was published by Li Xiaochao, Director of the Comprehensive Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, as the research report of the team leader. According to the report, from the results of the first four months of economic operation, the policy measures have achieved initial results.
The overall situation is better than expected and better than the world experts: China's fundamental recovery will be very strong. The Bureau of Statistics is relatively optimistic about the basic situation of the national economy since the beginning of this year: In general, the Chinese economy has achieved a good start, and major economic indicators have stopped falling. Stabilization, the overall economy performed better than expected and better than the world.
But the report also pointed out that the conclusion is only on the whole, in fact, the overall economic difficulties have not changed. In a brief analysis of the national economy in April, the report concluded that the national economy in April generally maintained its operational trend in March and stabilized on a stable platform, but the world economy as a whole is still in a deep recession, plus type A. The H1N1 flu virus is still spreading and spreading, and the world economic outlook is unclear, and there is greater uncertainty. The domestic economy has significant problems such as a sharp drop in fiscal revenue, fluctuations in production and operation of some industries and enterprises, and large employment pressures. The foundation for economic stabilization and recovery is still not stable, and the overall economy is still in a difficult period.
Wu Qing, director of the Research Office of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that in the global financial crisis and economic recession, China's economic recession is relatively moderate and the recovery is relatively strong, so the share of East Asia and the global economic aggregate will inevitably increase.
"But such progress is not worthy of our pride." Wu Qing said that the "economic creation of the East, Western consumption" type of world economic imbalance is not sustainable. If the imbalance mechanism is not changed, the economic crisis will come back in a few years.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, pointed out that the data at home and abroad are both good and bad. The worst period has passed, but at the bottom, it is difficult to say when to enter the continuous warming channel. The political commissar of Lu pointed out that there should be at least three criteria for judging the recovery: the confidence of the non-state sector will be restored, the GDP data will be stable at 9% for several consecutive quarters, and the fiscal growth will not have a major impact on economic growth.
"The real recovery of China's economic fundamentals will be very strong." Wu Qing believes that there are two main reasons: First, large-scale infrastructure investment can play a role in reducing the overall cost of China's manufacturing industry and improving the production of China's manufacturing industry. Second, the transfer of manufacturing in China to developed countries has not stopped even in times of crisis and recession. The crisis and recession just happened to be the reason for some multinational companies to shut down their factories. These two factors will enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese manufactured goods.
Transforming the development mode to avoid the trend of W-type Experts: The long-term problem is difficult to achieve short-term implementation The Bureau of Statistics reported that the next step of macroeconomic regulation and control needs to pay close attention to the trend of economic operations, and timely enrich and improve policies. The report pointed out that the country will focus on expanding investment, especially consumer demand, consolidating the positive changes in economic operations and promoting a steady recovery of the economy.
Therefore, the Statistics Bureau proposed to avoid the W-shaped trend of China's economy, and the key is to change the way of economic development. The report believes that the most ideal way is the "V" type, the "U" type is acceptable, but to avoid the "W" type. The "W" type can be understood as two "V" types. Its trajectory is that under the policy stimulus, the depressed economy began to show a rising trend, being the first "V" type, but due to insufficient policy follow-up, plus The economic environment continues to deteriorate, and the economic growth rate has re-started from high to low. It has entered the second “Vâ€-type downtrend channel. Obviously, it will take more time and effort to re-enter the rising range. The key to avoiding the "W" trend is the transformation of the economic development mode.
The report further pointed out that the transformation of development mode lies in several aspects: the model of relying on investment and export to support high growth in the past 30 years is unsustainable; the key to raising the income level of the people is to increase the income level of ordinary workers and professionals; The top priority for economic development is the upgrading of manufacturing.
However, the political commissar of Lu pointed out that avoiding the emergence of the W-type trend of the economy is a short-term problem. It can only be stimulated by the appropriate investment rhythm and intensity of fiscal policy and the recovery of confidence in the private economy. Transforming the way of economic development is a long-term issue.
Wu Qing also said that the transformation of economic growth mode is unlikely to be realized in the short term. China's economic growth is still highly dependent on external demand, so the real recovery of fundamentals cannot be earlier than that of the US and Europe. The Chinese economy is likely to experience a VVV-type “recession-stimulus-recovery†process. "Actually, the real recovery of China's economic fundamentals is U-shaped." Wu Qing said.
Macroeconomic regulation and control consolidate positive change experts: export or become the biggest obstacle to the statistics bureau report pointed out that the focus of macroeconomic regulation and control should be to highlight the protection of enterprises and promote growth; highlight strong investment and expand the foundation; highlight the structure and promote innovation; Increase vitality. Among them, the support for enterprises can not adopt the unified policy of “sprinkle pepper noodlesâ€, and it is necessary to strengthen pertinence.
For export-oriented enterprises with market and demand, the key is to seize the opportunity of low raw material prices and relatively loose logistics and transportation, and encourage the strengthening of strategic resource reserves. For SMEs, the key is to promote the construction of financing platforms, ease the shortage of liquidity, appropriately expand credit channels, expand credit lines, and extend credit terms. For the "two high and one capital" enterprises, the key is to promote the closure and transfer through the laws of the market, promote the adjustment of industrial structure, upgrade the industrial level, and prevent the resurgence.
Wu Qing expects that the Chinese economy may face another growth difficulty at the end of this year: the effects of the first round of economic stimulus have been exhausted, and monetary policy will be forced to adjust in the fourth quarter, while the economic fundamentals are far from real recovery. There are still at least half a year. Therefore, the second round of economic stimulus plan is indispensable. It should appear in the second half of this year.
Lu political commissar believes that real estate may have bottomed out, but there is still doubt about whether it will continue to stabilize in the future; the overall situation of exports is still very serious, and it is likely to be the most critical factor hindering China's economic recovery. “The US economy is already approaching the bottom, credit supply conditions have improved, but credit demand is still weak; while personal savings rates are rising, which will affect future consumption.â€
In addition, China should also pay attention to the risk of future fiscal expenditure capacity. "This will bring the possibility of actual tax increase." Lu political commissar said, "The short-term increase of new debt is likely to increase the burden on the real economy. Impact on the confidence of the non-state sector."
On May 26th, the "China Economic Report" was published by Li Xiaochao, Director of the Comprehensive Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, as the research report of the team leader. According to the report, from the results of the first four months of economic operation, the policy measures have achieved initial results.
The overall situation is better than expected and better than the world experts: China's fundamental recovery will be very strong. The Bureau of Statistics is relatively optimistic about the basic situation of the national economy since the beginning of this year: In general, the Chinese economy has achieved a good start, and major economic indicators have stopped falling. Stabilization, the overall economy performed better than expected and better than the world.
But the report also pointed out that the conclusion is only on the whole, in fact, the overall economic difficulties have not changed. In a brief analysis of the national economy in April, the report concluded that the national economy in April generally maintained its operational trend in March and stabilized on a stable platform, but the world economy as a whole is still in a deep recession, plus type A. The H1N1 flu virus is still spreading and spreading, and the world economic outlook is unclear, and there is greater uncertainty. The domestic economy has significant problems such as a sharp drop in fiscal revenue, fluctuations in production and operation of some industries and enterprises, and large employment pressures. The foundation for economic stabilization and recovery is still not stable, and the overall economy is still in a difficult period.
Wu Qing, director of the Research Office of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that in the global financial crisis and economic recession, China's economic recession is relatively moderate and the recovery is relatively strong, so the share of East Asia and the global economic aggregate will inevitably increase.
"But such progress is not worthy of our pride." Wu Qing said that the "economic creation of the East, Western consumption" type of world economic imbalance is not sustainable. If the imbalance mechanism is not changed, the economic crisis will come back in a few years.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, pointed out that the data at home and abroad are both good and bad. The worst period has passed, but at the bottom, it is difficult to say when to enter the continuous warming channel. The political commissar of Lu pointed out that there should be at least three criteria for judging the recovery: the confidence of the non-state sector will be restored, the GDP data will be stable at 9% for several consecutive quarters, and the fiscal growth will not have a major impact on economic growth.
"The real recovery of China's economic fundamentals will be very strong." Wu Qing believes that there are two main reasons: First, large-scale infrastructure investment can play a role in reducing the overall cost of China's manufacturing industry and improving the production of China's manufacturing industry. Second, the transfer of manufacturing in China to developed countries has not stopped even in times of crisis and recession. The crisis and recession just happened to be the reason for some multinational companies to shut down their factories. These two factors will enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese manufactured goods.
Transforming the development mode to avoid the trend of W-type Experts: The long-term problem is difficult to achieve short-term implementation The Bureau of Statistics reported that the next step of macroeconomic regulation and control needs to pay close attention to the trend of economic operations, and timely enrich and improve policies. The report pointed out that the country will focus on expanding investment, especially consumer demand, consolidating the positive changes in economic operations and promoting a steady recovery of the economy.
Therefore, the Statistics Bureau proposed to avoid the W-shaped trend of China's economy, and the key is to change the way of economic development. The report believes that the most ideal way is the "V" type, the "U" type is acceptable, but to avoid the "W" type. The "W" type can be understood as two "V" types. Its trajectory is that under the policy stimulus, the depressed economy began to show a rising trend, being the first "V" type, but due to insufficient policy follow-up, plus The economic environment continues to deteriorate, and the economic growth rate has re-started from high to low. It has entered the second “Vâ€-type downtrend channel. Obviously, it will take more time and effort to re-enter the rising range. The key to avoiding the "W" trend is the transformation of the economic development mode.
The report further pointed out that the transformation of development mode lies in several aspects: the model of relying on investment and export to support high growth in the past 30 years is unsustainable; the key to raising the income level of the people is to increase the income level of ordinary workers and professionals; The top priority for economic development is the upgrading of manufacturing.
However, the political commissar of Lu pointed out that avoiding the emergence of the W-type trend of the economy is a short-term problem. It can only be stimulated by the appropriate investment rhythm and intensity of fiscal policy and the recovery of confidence in the private economy. Transforming the way of economic development is a long-term issue.
Wu Qing also said that the transformation of economic growth mode is unlikely to be realized in the short term. China's economic growth is still highly dependent on external demand, so the real recovery of fundamentals cannot be earlier than that of the US and Europe. The Chinese economy is likely to experience a VVV-type “recession-stimulus-recovery†process. "Actually, the real recovery of China's economic fundamentals is U-shaped." Wu Qing said.
Macroeconomic regulation and control consolidate positive change experts: export or become the biggest obstacle to the statistics bureau report pointed out that the focus of macroeconomic regulation and control should be to highlight the protection of enterprises and promote growth; highlight strong investment and expand the foundation; highlight the structure and promote innovation; Increase vitality. Among them, the support for enterprises can not adopt the unified policy of “sprinkle pepper noodlesâ€, and it is necessary to strengthen pertinence.
For export-oriented enterprises with market and demand, the key is to seize the opportunity of low raw material prices and relatively loose logistics and transportation, and encourage the strengthening of strategic resource reserves. For SMEs, the key is to promote the construction of financing platforms, ease the shortage of liquidity, appropriately expand credit channels, expand credit lines, and extend credit terms. For the "two high and one capital" enterprises, the key is to promote the closure and transfer through the laws of the market, promote the adjustment of industrial structure, upgrade the industrial level, and prevent the resurgence.
Wu Qing expects that the Chinese economy may face another growth difficulty at the end of this year: the effects of the first round of economic stimulus have been exhausted, and monetary policy will be forced to adjust in the fourth quarter, while the economic fundamentals are far from real recovery. There are still at least half a year. Therefore, the second round of economic stimulus plan is indispensable. It should appear in the second half of this year.
Lu political commissar believes that real estate may have bottomed out, but there is still doubt about whether it will continue to stabilize in the future; the overall situation of exports is still very serious, and it is likely to be the most critical factor hindering China's economic recovery. “The US economy is already approaching the bottom, credit supply conditions have improved, but credit demand is still weak; while personal savings rates are rising, which will affect future consumption.â€
In addition, China should also pay attention to the risk of future fiscal expenditure capacity. "This will bring the possibility of actual tax increase." Lu political commissar said, "The short-term increase of new debt is likely to increase the burden on the real economy. Impact on the confidence of the non-state sector."
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