Chinanews.com reported on December 7th that as of December 6, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar hit a “down limit†for the fifth consecutive trading day, and the continuous decline was the first time in three years. Although some analysts pointed out yesterday that the current appreciation of the renminbi is expected to be greatly reduced, the future appreciation trend of the renminbi may reverse or depreciate in the medium and long term. At the same time, however, some analysts believe that the so-called RMB exchange rate against the US dollar exchange rate is not a reversal of the RMB appreciation trend in the domestic inter-bank RMB market. In recent days, the domestic RMB exchange rate market has risen and fallen, and the general trend is still in the upward channel. Renminbi's five-day limit for the appreciation of the trend of concern. According to the China Foreign Exchange Trade Center data, yesterday, the central bank issued a US dollar / RMB middle price of 6.3334, the yuan rose 15 basis points from the previous day. After the opening of the RMB spot market yesterday, the USD/RMB inquiry was closed at 6.3651 RMB “down limit†for most of the time, until it was close to the close, and finally closed at 6.3642. The five-day “down limit†has caused the outside world to speculate that the medium and long-term RMB exchange rate will tend to depreciate. Earlier, Standard Chartered Bank predicted that in the next three to four months, with the global economic slowdown, the European debt crisis will continue to deteriorate, the market risk aversion is still strong, and the US dollar will continue to strengthen. The tone of China's upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is likely to be a pessimistic judgment. For this reason, the focus of economic work next year is to adjust the structure and maintain growth. As a result, the momentum for the appreciation of the renminbi next year is also weak. In the future, even without central bank intervention, in the view of Standard Chartered Bank, the trend of RMB appreciation is hard to reverse. Some analysts pointed out that the RMB exchange rate tends to depreciate in the medium and long term. Wang Danqing, a partner in the management of the policy management, believes that with the further recovery of the US economy and the strengthening of the US dollar in the international political and economic environment, a large amount of capital has begun to flow to the United States, and this trend has also shown rapid growth. situation. Wang Danqing also believes that from a domestic perspective, macroeconomic regulation and control policies have pierced the development bubble of China's real estate industry, and the renminbi will usher in a catastrophic depreciation pressure. Although this is only an extreme situation, under the premise that China's overall economic development prospects are uncertain, the international community's expectations and judgments on China's real estate industry will also be adjusted and re-evaluated accordingly. Once the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to end, or the space for the appreciation of the renminbi is further compressed, the withdrawal of this portion of overseas capital will also fuel the devaluation of the renminbi. Experts: Speculative funds are the reason why the RMB exchange rate push-down pushes for the continuous fall of RMB foreign exchange. Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance and Finance of Renmin University of China and deputy director of the Institute of Finance and Securities, pointed out in an interview with Zhongxin.com’s financial channel that the exchange rate is affected. The factors are very complex, mainly with long-term fundamental factors, short-term market factors, and psychological factors involved in trading in the foreign exchange market. Zhao Xijun believes that, first of all, the current growth rate of China’s imports exceeds that of exports, so the trade surplus is narrowing. This means that the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market based on trade may be relatively balanced. Second, due to the poor economic situation in the world, many institutions are also reducing their foreign investment while also selling overseas assets, which may cause the inflow of funds to slow down. At the same time, China now encourages foreign investment, so there will be more capital outflows. Zhao Xijun believes that, in addition, speculative funds in the market began to open positions when the market was relatively weak, pushing up market prices through various channels, then selling at high points to earn money and withdrawing funds. So when the market rises very quickly, then the fall will be very fast. In the first half of this year, the rise was worth a lot, and it repeatedly broke the upper limit. This is the result of several aspects working together. The analysis said that the RMB “down limit†did not reverse the overall upward trend. Although the RMB has hit the daily limit for five consecutive days, some analysts believe that the media’s so-called “down limit†is mostly conceptual. In general, the renminbi is still in the ascending channel . The Securities Daily published a commentary on December 7th stating that the so-called " downslide " is not a scientific definition, but a language for media hype. The “limit limit†of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar exchange rate is not a reversal of the RMB appreciation trend in the domestic inter-bank RMB market. In recent days, the domestic RMB exchange rate market has risen and fallen, and the general trend is still in the rising channel, which is far from the so-called “five-day limitâ€. In addition, the short-term mechanism of the RMB spot exchange market in Hong Kong is introduced, and short-selling can make money. Therefore, the downward trend is obviously understandable, not a panic decline. According to the analysis, as the spot exchange rate market in Hong Kong has just started, in order to control the ups and downs, the traditional means of the domestic market has been followed, that is, the daily trading fluctuation range is calculated by the five-thousandths of the middle price announced in the morning, exceeding the fluctuation range. The trading price of the day can no longer be broken. This approach is similar to the limit of the stock market's daily limit, but the ratio is very different. Even after continuously hitting the limit of the daily limit, the actual exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar fell by only about two cents. In the domestic inter-bank RMB exchange rate market, the RMB exchange rate was relatively stable. It has risen by 206 basis points in the last 10 trading days, especially the comprehensive Exchange rate levels are still in an upward trend. Yu Yongding, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also believes that the pressure on RMB appreciation will be correspondingly weakened due to the decline in speculative capital inflows and the expected decline in the appreciation of the renminbi. However, as long as China has a large trade surplus, as long as China has not established an exchange rate formation mechanism that determines the exchange rate of the foreign exchange market supply and demand, the call for the appreciation of the renminbi in the international community will not disappear.
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