According to the Voice of Economics "Chaoguang Finance and Economics Observation", we know that the shortage of domestic coal coal stocks is not a new thing, but most of this happens in the winter at the end of the year, but now this rule seems to be Breaking, Zhejiang and other places have a rare phenomenon of power shortage in the off-season, and a large number of enterprises are once again facing different forms of power-limiting. According to the report, the lack of electricity in Zhejiang is the most serious power shortage since 2004, and Zhejiang has already formulated a strict and orderly electricity plan, and it has limited power consumption for high-energy-consuming enterprises. The enterprises that use electricity have reached more than 500,000 households, and we have seen reports at 3 pm. The reporter learned from the State Grid Huazhong Company that since the end of April, the power consumption of Central China Power Grid has remained at a high level. Coal stocks continue to decline. As of April 25, the entire network of coal inventory can only be used for 9 days, the monthly power limit of Central China Power Grid has reached more than 20 million kWh, of which Hunan, Jiangxi, Chongqing and other provinces and cities have a tense situation, according to the introduction in April Due to the shortage of coal, the lack of water from hydropower plants, the defects of the unit, and other factors, the power shortages in several provincial networks in central China, Hunan, Jiangxi, Chongqing and other provinces and cities have taken measures to limit electricity and electricity. How should we view the current shortage of electricity in the off-season in East China and Central China, and the economic voice special observer, Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network, commented on this. Moderator: Now the industry generally believes that the average value of coal storage below 15 days is lower than the warning line. If it is broken for 7 days, it is lower than the minimum warning line. If it is less than 3 days, the power plant may stop at any time. The number of days that can be consumed is 9 days. How to assess the seriousness of such a problem, will it spread to the whole country? Han Xiaoping: This average value is also the national average. Some power plants are close to the coal mine base. His storage period can be shorter. For example, in the Huadong East China area, the coal production base should be farther away. He should store more coal, actually 15 days. It is far from enough, so at least 20 to 30 days of coal should be stored, and now 9 days should be said to be very few. To a certain extent, it indicates that the coal supply in this area is very tight, and the power supply may be in trouble at any time. Moderator: Will this problem spread to the whole country? Han Xiaoping: It is very possible to see it now. We have also heard from the National Development and Reform Commission. Some leaders of the National Energy Administration have been talking about it recently, saying that this summer will definitely not allow residents to pull electricity. Once this request is made, it will be formed in all places. There is a lot of pressure, because the electricity consumption of the residents has risen linearly over the years, and the electricity consumption of the residents has caused a large load difference between the peaks and valleys. If the electricity of the residents is not pulled, then the impact on the whole industry will be compared. Big. Han Xiaoping: It is indeed a big problem. We know that in April every year, because the air conditioner has not yet risen, there is no need for heating in winter. At this time, the electricity consumption is very low, and therefore the general power plants are all thermal power plants. At this time, it is overhauled. Now, of course, there are some units that are now shutting down and overhauling. This is one of the factors affecting it. In addition, as mentioned earlier, there are fewer problems caused by upstream water supply, but I think the biggest problem is that the international oil price is rising. Because the international oil price is rising, it brings two problems. On the one hand, our transportation costs continue to increase, so that the price of thermal coal rises linearly. On the other hand, due to the rising price of coal, some power generation companies think that once I generate electricity, I will Loss, then I would like to do so, I will try to send less, find a variety of excuses to send less, this will aggravate the tension of this power supply, so this electricity and coal and oil are interconnected Relationship, now the price of oil is moving all over the body. Moderator: The current lack of coal and electricity shortage is temporary, or it may become the norm. Is the contradiction between coal supply and demand in Central China in the middle of the country upgraded with the economic development? Han Xiaoping: Now it has become this normal state. Every year we will encounter this kind of power shortage problem. This is not the case. To a great extent, we know that the role of market allocation resources has not been played, and it has always been dominated by some monopolies. The factors that lead to the lack of effective resource allocation between market supply and demand, the result is the disorderly development of some energy-intensive enterprises, and in other places, his power construction and market demand have no way to organically cooperate, which leads us There is a constant shortage of power supply, the problem of coal continues to appear, and other energy-related problems continue to emerge. Han Xiaoping: Actually, this statement is not very accurate. The electricity consumption of residents only accounts for 15% of our total. The main bulk is industrial electricity. Over the years, the elasticity coefficient of our electricity is very high. Although we announced the energy elasticity of our last year. The coefficient is only 5.9%, which means that our energy is only increased by 5.9%, and then our GDP is 9%. In fact, our power has exceeded 100 million. We don’t know what causes this number. This is the result, but the use of electricity is a rigid load. As the economy develops, the demand for electricity will continue to rise. No matter whether you develop the first, second or third industries, the energy is basically the same. Coefficient, the coefficient of electric power elasticity is going all the way up, so you have to ensure the development of the economy, no matter which industry you develop to ensure the power supply is essential. Moderator: The next question is in front of us is how to solve the existing problems, what advice do you have? Han Xiaoping: This question is not to say in front of us. Every time we are solving the problem in front of us, we have solved the problem of dismantling the East Wall to make up the Western Wall. However, we have continuously removed the East Wall to make up the Western Wall and removed the East Wall. The Western Wall is always like this. This problem can never be solved. The real problem is to solve the problem or through the market. Because only through the market, through effective resource allocation, the market can be priced. Now because of the pricing of our government, due to the monopoly of our power grid company. There is no way for the market to work. Once we really let the market play its own role, if you use more electricity, the electricity you use is unreasonable, and the cost you pay is higher than others, so local government companies will find ways to balance their electricity consumption. The load can improve his energy efficiency. In the end, we want this to gradually solve the problem through the market. Therefore, for China, adhering to reform and opening up is the only way to go. There is no way out without reform.
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