In 2018, the mobile phone industry did not have the ecology of a product that was larger than the product. Without a half-monthly concert, the atmosphere of the performance of the comic dialogue was particularly dignified. "Winter" is really coming?
It is said that the smartphone market is declining, how much has it dropped?
According to recent data released by third-party research firm Counterpoint, China's smartphone sales in the first half of 2018 decreased by 10% year-on-year, and 13% year-on-year in the third quarter. Although Huawei, OPPO and vivo have grown against the trend, they have not recovered their overall sales decline. The downturn.
China's smartphone market distribution (data source Counterpoint)
Global smartphone market distribution (data source Counterpoint)
According to the author's observation of the industry for many years, coupled with the analysis of industry experts, the decline in smartphone sales is caused by the following factors:
First of all, the severe economic form has caused people to reduce their purchasing power. Together with the overall price adjustment of mobile phone manufacturers, the models of less than 2,000 yuan have basically exceeded 3,000 yuan;
Secondly, the performance is excessive, the mid-range Soc can basically run the mainstream large-scale mobile games on the market, leading to the extension of the consumer replacement cycle;
Finally, smartphones lack essential innovations, and micro-innovation on screens and cameras can hardly motivate ordinary consumers to change their desires.
Before the advent of real technological innovations such as 5G and folding screens, the Chinese smartphone market is likely to remain “hibernating†in the next one to two years. Many of the “predecessors†in the mobile phone industry may be forced to survive because of previous accumulations. The group is over the winter, and some of the latecomers and even some poorly run seniors may be eliminated.
Now, in the last month of 2018, what are the "great changes" in the Chinese mobile phone industry in the past year? Let's take a closer look!
Huawei: This year's biggest winner sales volume reputation double harvest
In the second quarter of this year, Huawei's global sales exceeded Apple's, ranking second in the world and continuing in the third quarter. In the first half of the year, the sales volume has reached 100 million units. According to IDC data, Huawei sold 52 million units in the third quarter, and the target of 200 million units in the whole year has been completed by three-quarters.
Huawei's success is not only the growth of sales, but also the global recognition of brands and products. Huawei's flagship P-series and Mate series have received global attention, and Huawei is the only company in Europe. A stable Chinese brand. Counterpoint's survey shows that the Huawei P20 Lite has entered the list of five mobile phones that people are most concerned about in the UK, France and Germany. Huawei’s fellow brethren are not idle, and sales in Southeast Asia, India and Russia have increased this year.
The impression is that this year I saw a French neighbourhood from the media Real swearing eggs on the streets of Europe. Many people in Europe know the Huawei brand, and many people have changed their mobile phones into Huawei. Let's take another example in life. Before you asked someone else not to buy an Apple mobile phone, what we can buy, maybe Samsung, Xiaomi or others. The first reaction of many people today is Huawei.
In addition, Huawei's chip strategy, which began to be deployed many years ago, has begun to bear fruit. Kirin 980 and Apple A12 have become the only two 7nm process chips on the market, and Huawei and the Cambrian NPU have also topped the AI. Benchmark is ranked, and now Huawei is also stepping up its self-developed NPU. As the market share of the company continues to grow, self-developed core components gradually get rid of the constraints of supply, which is the best way for companies to be free from people.
Xiaomi: IoT outbreak + multi-brand strategy
This year is a very important year for Xiaomi, because Xiaomi has taken a very important step as a company - listing. However, the subscription was cold and the first day of the listing broke. These are all due to the fact that everyone is not clear about the "new species" of Xiaomi in the Lei Junkou. In the first financial report after the listing, Xiaomi classified his business into three categories: smart phones, IoT and the Internet.
The financial report shows that Xiaomi achieved revenue of 50.846 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2018, up 49.1% year-on-year, of which smartphone revenue was 34.98 billion yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year, accounting for 68.8% of total revenue, so the smartphone is still Xiaomi's. Main business. According to Counterpoint's data, Xiaomi's domestic sales in 2018 is stable at 13%, ranking fourth, and the price of Xiaomi mobile phone has exceeded 2,000 yuan. The increase in revenue is reasonable.
In addition, Xiaomi has also achieved great success overseas, with revenue accounting for 43.9% of the highest point in history. Xiaomi also plans to expand its overseas market bases from India and Southeast Asia to Europe, and opened two flagship stores in Europe this year. In China, Xiaomi is implementing a multi-brand strategy. Xiaomi mobile phones, which started with enthusiasts, have always had a good user base among male users, and the black sharks in the ecological chain and the recent cooperation of the beautiful pictures have also circled the powder of many gamers and female users. If the mobile phone would like to have many market segments like laptops in the same year, Xiaomi can lay out these market segments early.
Xiaomi's IoT and consumer products revenues reached 10.8 billion yuan, an increase of 89.8%, which is a very terrible growth rate. Today's Xiaomi is not just a small factory that sells mobile power. With Xiao Ai students as the core, it radiates to all aspects of home appliances. You can think of it in the Xiaomi Mall.
At the time of listing, Lei Jun emphasized that Xiaomi is an Internet company, and Internet service revenue was only 4.73 billion yuan, including applications, music, video, cloud services, Internet finance and many other hardware-derived services. The share ratio is small, but the gross margin is 60.2%, while smartphones and IoT are only 8.8% and 8.3%. However, it is precisely because of some Internet services that the user experience of MIUI has been reduced, and advertising has become a common problem for users.
Vivo and OPPO: sales growth against the trend from followers to leaders
People always like to compare the two together, not only because they are the same blue and green factories, but also because they have almost the same marketing strategy, research and development pace, and very close market share.
As we all know, OV (short for OPPO and vivo) has been cultivating offline retail channels for many years, and has a huge offline sales system. Through these years of continuous cultivation, it has gradually filled up the shortcomings of online channels. With Huawei, Xiaomi, and Apple, it is the throne of the top five online channels. As of the third quarter of this year, the overall sales volume of online and offline, OPPO and vivo accounted for 21% of the domestic market share, ranking second in the domestic market. It has achieved a contrarian growth in the environment of overall sales decline in the domestic market, in which the growth of vivo leads with a slight advantage.
At the same time, OV also took the first bus of domestic mobile phones to sea, and has a small market in Southeast Asia and India. In the overseas market, OV uses the same “swipe screen†marketing method as the domestic one. The outdoor advertisements of the airport, the station and the subway are overwhelming. In order to meet the younger overall brand image, the local idol celebrity is also invited overseas. Gartner's data shows that OPPO global shipments in the third quarter of this year were 30.56 million units, compared with 29.45 million units in the same period last year. Thanks to the growth of overseas markets, OPPO and vivo have 9% and 8% of the global market respectively in the third quarter of this year, ranking the fifth and sixth in global sales.
OV is good at setting the pace of research and development by grasping market demand. When mobile phone sales surged in the past few years, the launch was basically aimed at the mid-range models of the younger generation, and even suspended the research and development of high-end products. When the market growth began to slow down, it turned too close to start research and development. OPPO Find X's slider camera and vivo NEX's on-screen fingerprint recognition have opened up new ideas for smartphone innovation. This has turned the two companies from technology followers into technology leaders.
In addition, it is worth noting that this year OPPO moved its flagship product, Find X, to foreign countries - Paris for the first time. Compared with the history of Huawei's Mate and P series, the meaning and intention of this is naturally self-evident.
Meizu & Hammer: The craftsman spirit still has ideal and full of reality.
Once upon a time, Meizu was still a big factory that could be compared with Xiaomi. The grievances of Huang Zhang and Lei Jun were also portrayed by the media in the form of martial arts. In 2016, the Meizu concert plan was officially launched, 11 conferences, 12 groups of artists, and 14 new models, which pushed the sales of Meizu mobile phones to a climax - 22 million units, and as the concert came to an end, Meizu The sales volume seems to have been fixed in that year.
According to Sino data, Meizu's mobile phone shipments in the first three quarters of this year were 8.1 million units. In the third quarter, Meizu's domestic market share was 1.8%, and sales volume was 1.89 million units, down 53% year-on-year. The rapid increase and the rapid decline, Meizu roller coaster sales make people look chilly. Ali Capital's entry also disappeared with Yunos to IoT. Although Huang Zhang still polished the Meizu 16s behind the scenes like a craftsman, the Meizu pre-stage brand split, layoffs, executive resignation, and mutual enthusiasm seem to be more in line with the appetite of the mass media.
The other day, a craftsman and a cell phone, the days of comics seem to be not good. Not long ago, an article in the science and technology media entitled "Hammer and Death" revealed a 60% rumor of hammer technology layoffs, and also listed a series of problems such as insufficient return, tight capital chain, and no orders from TNT factories. This undoubtedly gives another hammer to the hammer technology that has not yet been dispelled from the Chengdu branch. It is no wonder that the old Luofa Weibo has to sue others.
As Luo powder, I also participated in the report of the first press conference of the hammer. I would rather have these things in vain, but the reality may not be as I wish. In 2017, the sales volume of hammer mobile phones broke through one million, and the target sales volume in 2015 was 3.5 million units. The number of completed hammers is still unknown, and the hammer has no data to announce. However, according to the only publicly funded data from investors, Hammer has been losing money in 2012, and is currently facing the dilemma of financing. Ronaldinho and hammer technology, which are not born in the class and are very romantic and artisan, can be a good year. Next year is a very crucial year.
For Meizu and Hammer, although there are problems with the products, the craftsman spirit of constantly polishing the products still exists. I hope that such enterprises can continue to survive because the Chinese mobile phone industry needs such "artisan spirit" and their products. You don't like or buy, but we need to keep a little respect for these companies and entrepreneurs.
One plus: a product is really small and beautiful
We can also give a positive example of small and beautiful. It is such a company that was born out of OPPO's one plus mobile phone. One plus mobile phone was established in 2014. In 2017, it sold 4 million mobile phones and achieved sales of more than 1.4 billion US dollars. Although the profit is meager, it is enough to feed a company with hundreds of people, one or two products a year, and basically no advertising.
Since its inception, Yijia has been adhering to the principle of “not going to be†and only made flagship products. Now Apple has three models at the same time to cater to different consumers, but one plus still maintains a black line of products, and ranks among the top 10 sales in the first quarter of 2018, becoming the sales increase in 2018. The fastest mobile phone brand.
In addition, the reputation of one plus overseas seems to be bigger than domestic. Nearly 70% of the sales of one plus mobile phones in 2017 came from overseas markets, and its products were rated as Best of the Year by Wired magazine, Time Magazine, Forbes, CNET, PCMag, The Verge, etc. Or the most worthwhile phone to buy. One plus mobile phone is a cost-effective product in the flagship. Based on this unchanging product strategy, it not only competes with OV in Southeast Asia, but also spurs the high-end market in Europe and America with Huawei's flagship.
The main goal of this year's one plus is India, the world's second largest mobile phone market. Previously, the experience stores in Shanghai and Beijing were all gone, but this year Liu Zuohu announced the data of the Indian offline experience store for the first time at a press conference: "We have the most experience stores in Bangalore. When I sold more than 5,000 units a month." In the Indian market, the price of a one-plus-one mobile phone is equivalent to RMB 4,000, which is a “differentiation†with the target users of Xiaomi and OV in the Indian market.
In the fierce competition of smart phones, many small brands died in the supply chain, and one plus with Liu Zuohu's supply chain operation successfully broke through, and won the recognition of Qualcomm, the new machine being developed became the first to carry Xiaolong One of the flagship models of the 855. The same is a small company, the success of one plus is also a special case, but there is also some necessity.
Lenovo & ZTE: The lost aristocrats switched overseas
The "China Cool Alliance" of China Mobile has already become history. Huawei is unique, and the future of Cool is uncertain. ZTE and Lenovo are like a declining aristocrat. They don't want others to pay attention to them, because this is rarely seen in our sights.
However, we first opened the official website of ZTE and saw that Axon M still occupies a very prominent position. This is a dual-screen mobile phone released by ZTE in New York, USA on October 17, 2017. The concept is more advanced, but it seems that it cannot be seen. To whom is in use. After several coaching changes, ZTE Mobile, which has been quiet for a long time in baptism, finally released its new product, Axon9 Pro, in October this year. However, this product has been smashed in the booming smartphone market. Can't get up.
Some people say that ZTE has shifted the market overseas. Indeed, in the data released by Counterpoint, the market share in the US market in the first quarter of this year is still 11%, but on April 15, the US Department of Commerce issued a ban on ZTE. The American Dream was completely shattered.
Also disappearing with ZTE is the Nubian who can shoot the moon. In the good times, people always don't mind adding icing on the cake, but in the age of light, these icing on the cake are often forgotten, so I almost forgot it when I wrote this article. Since its birth, Nubia, born out of ZTE, has become a model for screaming. Those sales phones that were sold to the US by ZTE also disappeared with the fall of ZTE. Cristiano Ronaldo’s endorsement did not help Nubia to open the European market as ZTE and the NBA cooperated. According to reports from Tencent Technology, the average sales volume of new products in Nubia in 2017 was only 220,000 units. After independent operation, Suning's shareholding, the offline channel does not seem to open; ZTE's recovery plan to reduce the 10.1% stake in Nubia, accurate to 49.9% of the shareholding, just do not need to be included in the scope of the consolidated statement. The Red Devils seem to have become the last straw of Nubian. After all, there are only two similar competitors in the market, Black Shark and ASUS ROG.
The number of robberies that Lenovo experienced was not from the outside but from itself. Long-term structural adjustment and internal integration have almost made Lenovo miss the opportunity for the development of smart phones. After the acquisition of Motorola, the moto heat after returning to China was only maintained for a short time, and it disappeared. Fortunately, moto has a user base in the US market, and its share of the US market with a higher price/performance ratio has increased from 4% in the first quarter of this year to 8%.
Although Z5 Pro still highlights the control of the product in the shopkeeper, but the brand of Lenovo mobile phone has been away from people's attention for too long, not to mention the fact that people nowadays are extremely rich in choice, and it is not so long to forget a brand. Lenovo's acquisition of IBM's PC business created a miracle in that era, but the same model failed to replicate in the mobile phone market for the simple reason that the times have changed and competitors have changed.
Almost at the same time as Huawei started, it was all started by operators. R&D couldn’t keep up with it or the direction was wrong. The ending was completely different. I hope that Nokia’s fall can be taken as a warning. However, the dead camel is bigger than the horse, and the aristocrats in the 5G era have the opportunity to return to the historical stage.
Gionee & Cool: The future of the giants is not clear
The survival status of domestic mobile phone enterprises in 2018: collectively go to sea, the giants die
In the end, I wanted to take it with you, but the story is too good, but I still need to talk about it.
The downfall of Cool is quite "dramatic." First of all, with the Dongguan night love story of 360 did not last for a long time, it was good at creating eco-analysis and data analysis. Although it was somewhat unpleasant with the predecessor, it was better to see a combination of “technician†and “marketing masterâ€. It should be a good time to get up. However, the ending of the story is always unexpected. The good ecology of the marketing master has not been realized, and the capital chain is broken. It’s always necessary to come out and mix, and the cool-legged and wrong-handed objects are also implicated. It is impossible to close down after the bankruptcy. After all, there are so many land to sell, continue to the phone, but will you buy it?
Coincidentally, the same is the boss's fancy death, Liu Lirong brought Jin Li, who had to hit the front line, into the abyss. With the offline channel and operator resources comparable to OV, Gionee was still a big manufacturer with 40 million units a year in 2016, but the sales in 2017 showed a cliff-like decline, only 14.94 million, although it fell out. The first-line queue, but it is much better than the many companies that have just started as mentioned above.
However, the expiration of a billion-dollar bond unveiled the original face of the insolvency of the company, and also tore off the mask of Liu Lirong’s false integrity. For Gionee, 2018 is the most painful year. Assets are seized and creditors come to collect debts. But the more painful is the deceived suppliers. Some stocks have fallen, and some have to repay their debts. Some even closed the door directly. In the face of bankruptcy and reorganization, Jin Li still has a lot of unknowns. Jin Li became a typical example of sudden death in 2018.
Conclusion:
After experiencing the historical high of mobile phone sales in 2016 and the first decline in 2017, the smartphone market in 2018 is a bit of a surprise. Surprise is that Huawei as the boss continues to lead the technological innovation and chip autonomy in the front, followed by the rise of OV, as well as the success of Xiaomi and Jiajia. Regrettably, some companies with good products and good ideas have begun to crise, and some of the giants of the past have been devastated. But this does not include those companies that have problems themselves, especially those that play with capital and eventually set fire to themselves and harm suppliers.
Collective sea is the main theme of 2018. Before the deep penetration of the European and American markets began to penetrate into Southeast Asia and India, and the deep penetration of these primary markets has also begun to reverse into mature markets such as Europe and the United States. Mutual penetration allows Chinese brands to have a market share of more than 40% globally, and this number will continue to climb in the future as globalization and localization progress.
However, 2018 is also a year in which the “T-shaped pattern†of the Chinese mobile phone market and even the world mobile phone market has further intensified. As of the third quarter of 2018, Top5's brand in China's domestic market accounted for 87% of the market, compared with 80% in the same period last year. The T-shaped pattern will continue to cause resources to gather at the head, forming a stronger Matthew effect, further compressing the survival space of other brands.
The giants are dying, and small and medium-sized manufacturers are struggling to maintain. This year is "a year of shuffling the smartphone market." This conclusion is not an exaggeration.
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