Double the increase in profit stocks, environmental protection and limited production are still crucial in the second half of the year.

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Mid-year environmental protection and production restriction tends to regionalization

With the advancement in late June, the pace of the end of the first half of the year has been slow. In the first half of the year, environmental protection and production activities involved many provinces and cities across the country. For heavily polluted areas, there were many environmental protection measures, such as Hebei Province, Jiangsu. province. Then, since June, what is the situation of limited production? Is the production still on the road or is it still limited? From June 8th, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will hold the 2018-2019 win to win the blue sky defending the key areas to strengthen the supervision and start the video conference. The localities have also given notices of environmental protection and production restrictions.

As a major coal province, Shanxi Province has a strong environmental protection limit. On June 15, the Shanxi Provincial Environmental Protection Department and the Shanxi Provincial Quality Supervision Bureau jointly issued a notice requesting that since July 1, 2018, all the cities in Shanxi Province will be fully implemented to implement special emission limits. In existing enterprises, industries and boilers that have specified special emission limits for atmospheric pollutants in national emission standards require thermal power, steel, petrochemical, chemical, non-ferrous (without alumina), existing enterprises in the cement industry, and With boilers, from October 1, 2018, special emission limits for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and volatile organic compounds will be implemented; existing companies in the coking chemical industry will implement sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxidation from October 1, 2019. Specific emission limits for substances, particulate matter and volatile organic compounds. Then, on June 21, the Shanxi Provincial Environmental Protection Agency issued an announcement calling for the guarantee of air quality. From July 1st, the main urban area of ​​Jincheng City imposed restrictions on the control of freight vehicles.

On June 9th, Hebei Province also held a video conference on “Reviewing” coordination and liaison work for environmental protection inspectors. In the near future, Tangshan City launched a regional production restriction measure. On June 20th, the county and districts of Tangshan City were introduced to strictly implement the production restriction measures from 20th to 21st, requiring the enterprises to stop the sintering machine and the shaft furnace; the coking enterprises stopped loading. The coal is out of focus; the independent lime kiln enterprises stop production, the enterprise lime kiln stops production 50%; the foundry enterprises stop production; and for some enterprises, the pollutant emissions are reduced to less than 60% of the ultra-low emission limit. Then, on June 25, the leading group of air pollution prevention and control work in Fengrun District of Tangshan City issued a notice to stop the limited production of key industries to deal with the polluted weather, requiring the sintering machine to stop, the lime kiln limited production of 50%, and Cement manufacturers have also made strict requirements on emissions.

Shaanxi Province is focusing on coal coke enterprises. On June 7, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the “Intensive Supervision Program for Key Areas of the Blue Sky Defence War in 2018-2019”, and added six cities for capacity monitoring. It can be seen that the work of environmental protection and production is still continuing. In Hebei Province, where pollution is serious, it still pays high attention. In addition to limiting production, it also has increased supervision and management of related coking coal and lime kiln enterprises.

Zhenjiang City, Jiangsu Province, issued a notice on June 8 to propose seven major measures for air pollution, including re-emphasizing the acceleration of production, cement, chemical and other de-capacity work. The enterprises in Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province have started to resume production, but the process is slow. The southeast steel mill of Xuzhou City started the first step of resumption of production on June 15 and started the hot blast stove of No. 3 blast furnace in the drying plant to open the first heat storage for the blast furnace. Steps, it is expected that the iron water will be officially released in early July, but the environmental inspection inspector is still in progress. The inspection team is still supervising the various regions in Jiangsu Province according to the plan of limiting production by more than 50%. It can be seen that the production is limited and the production is slow. For the coming second half of the year, environmental protection and production restrictions will tend to be regionalized and key monitoring, and the heating season will continue to be implemented at the end of the year.

Mid-year inventory shows greater growth rate

According to the latest inventory data, as of June 27, social inventories expanded to 2,796,400 tons, an increase of 111,600 tons from the previous week, an increase of 4.16%, while last Wednesday's increase was 0.15%. Speed ​​up. Steel mill stocks were 1,394,900 tons this week, an increase of 161,100 tons from last week, an increase of 13.06%, and last Wednesday's increase of 0.65%. It can be seen that compared with last week, the social library and the factory warehouse both grew rapidly. The total inventory also increased from 391.86 last week to 4,191,300 tons, an increase of 272,700 tons, an increase from 0.30% last week to 6.96%. This week, the social inventory growth rate rebounded for two consecutive weeks after converging for 13 consecutive weeks, and this week's growth rate expanded. This week, the total inventory level continued to rise for two weeks, indicating that the destocking rate in the previous period remained good, and the high inventory was completed, which eased the pressure on the inventory base. The overall level is in line with recent market expectations, and the market is expected to continue to accumulate in the near future.

Industrial profit margins have increased steadily

On June 27, from January to May, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 272.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. The growth rate was 1.5 percentage points faster than that of the first four months. Among them, the industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 6070.6. 100 million yuan, an increase of 21.1% year-on-year, the growth rate slowed by 0.8 percentage points from April. Although the growth rate has slowed down, it still maintains a rapid growth trend. According to the statistics bureau, the main source of profit growth of industrial enterprises is the processing and utilization of raw materials such as building materials and chemicals. In the first five months of this year, the industries with more profit added mainly involved ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries, with a profit growth of 1.1 times; non-metallic mineral products industry, an increase of 44.6%; chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, an increase of 27.7%; The oil and gas exploration industry grew by 2.6 times; the electric power production and supply industry grew by 27.8%. These five industries contribute nearly 70% to the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size. It can be seen that the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises is on the rise. Although the growth rate in May has slowed down from April, the overall growth rate is still at a rapid growth stage. This is a good signal for the steel market, indicating that the efficiency of industrial enterprises has improved, coupled with rising prices and falling costs, making the profit in May maintain rapid growth.

summary

At this important time point in June, the focus of the industry is on the advancement of the end of inventory and the outlook for the current and second half of environmental protection. First of all, from the perspective of environmental protection, in June, environmental protection inspections continued, regionalization was obvious, and large-scale supervision was still carried out on heavily polluted areas, especially in Hebei. For the environmental protection and production restriction in the second half of the year, and the future resumption of production, at present, the resumption of production is slow, and in the second half of the year, environmental protection and production will tend to be normalized and regionalized, and the winter production limit will continue. Therefore, environmental protection and production restriction are still an important factor in disturbing the steel market in the second half of the year, which plays an important role in the operation of the entire steel market and cannot be ignored. Looking at the inventory side, social inventories and steel mill inventories continued to increase this week, and the growth rate expanded. For the continuous inventory recovery, it basically met market expectations and will continue to maintain its recovery level in the near future. As far as external macro data is concerned, the profit rate of industrial enterprises will continue to increase from January to May. Among them, the black smelting industry will help, the efficiency of industrial enterprises will improve, and the profitability of steel companies will be in a growth stage, which will have a positive impact on future development. .

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