Phosphate fertilizer trend: diammonium avoids early collection

The demand for the domestic diammonium market has been closed. The back-side fertilizers are due to reach July. The fertilizers will be used until September and the light storage time will be nearly 5 months. The export window period will be opened from May 16. When there is no demand in the country and the window period is approaching again, diammonium production enterprises have turned their attention to exports. Combining with the actual situation of cost, output, and export in previous years, the author believes that the risk of early porting is very high.

From the production cost of diammonium, the output of phosphate ore from January to February was 15.07 million tons, up 13% over the same period of last year, and it maintained the momentum of rapid growth, which determined that the price of phosphate rock would only continue to fall; After the sharp rebound after November last year, the recent decline continued, and the probability of falling below last year's low was greatly increased; urea had fallen by more than RMB 200/ton on the basis of the lowest price last year, which inevitably led to a drop in ammonia prices. Break last year's low. Under the background of the continuous decline in the price of phosphate ore, ** and synthetic ammonia, it is difficult for domestic diammonium to find cost support.

The domestic production capacity of diammonium is close to 20 million tons, and the actual output of diammonium in January-February was 2.76 million tons. From 2010 to 2013, the domestic export volume of diammonium was basically maintained at between 3.8 million and 4 million tons. In April, May and June, it was a period of dismantling and consumption of diammonium in China, and domestic production was basically dependent on exports. Assuming that the average monthly output of 1.38 million tons in January-February is maintained, only the total amount of diammonium resources available for export will reach 4.14 million tons in April-June, which is more than the peak export value of the calendar year. It is difficult to achieve the goal of digesting domestic production through exports.

Look again at monthly export data. Since 2010, the peak of diammonium exports has not been in the month of releasing export tariffs, but it has been surprisingly and consistently occurring in August. The "August Phenomenon" of this diammonium export can be used to find the answer from the global fertilizer application, but I don't think it is that simple. It may be a result of a game: Domestic demand will be blank in April and July, but the output needs to go. Digestion, in the international market is not in a hurry, China's diammonium can only compete for the international limited demand by way of cannibalism. By August, domestic demand will start, and the dependence on the international market will be reduced. The volume of Hong Kong will be very small, which will support the price of the international market (except in 2013, because the volume of the port-port in the previous period was too large). . It can be seen that the end of July is the deadline for the game of the export price of diammonium. It is no accident that the peak of exports was formed in August.

Assuming that the “August phenomenon” of diammonium exports will still occur this year, it will take more than three months from now to collect ports and take a lot of cargo. From the game's point of view, the greater the number of domestic ports gathered before August, the more concentrated the bargaining chips in the hands of importers. In recent years, in the case of a large number of Chinese exporters of fertilizers collecting in advance, importers generally adopted the method of using time to exchange prices, successfully suppressing the export prices of Chinese fertilizer, and causing domestic fertilizer exporters to suffer major losses.

Soldiers who, deception also. In view of this, the author suggests that the diammonium production enterprises can reduce the output by arranging maintenance at the current stage. The export enterprises should use the first order, post-shipment, or no rush to set aside the port to hide their own export volume, so as to achieve The purpose of emptiness is to avoid the emergence of arbitrariness.