PMI has been picking up the macro economy for five consecutive months.

PMI rebounded for five consecutive months, rising slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 53.3% in April, and hit a new high of more than a year, indicating that economic growth continues to stabilize. However, the fall in the new order index indicates that demand is still sluggish, or dragging the economy further to pick up. Experts believe that stable investment growth and steady demand growth have become the key to stabilizing economic growth. The growth of “stable” momentum gradually formed the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center jointly released data yesterday, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 53.3% in April, up 0.2 percentage points from March. The index has risen for five consecutive months and is higher than the same period last year, indicating that the macro economy is moving towards a better direction on the basis of stabilization. From the sub-index, compared with March, the production index, new export order index, and supplier delivery time index increased, of which the production index was 57.2%, a large increase, reaching 2 percentage points; The index rose to 52.2% from 51.9% in March; the new order index was 54.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from March and 2.7 percentage points behind the production index, reflecting insufficient demand growth. In addition, the purchase price index of major raw materials for manufacturing enterprises in April was 54.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from March, indicating that the increase in the purchase price of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry narrowed. In this regard, Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that overall, the “stable” momentum of economic growth is gradually taking shape. On the one hand, the macro economy is developing in a good direction on the basis of stability; The purchase price index stabilized downward, reflecting that prices have fallen back and stabilized on the basis of the previous high level. The future economy still has downside risks. However, Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomic researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that the PMI index continued to increase in April, but the magnitude was significantly reduced, and the new order index fell. These conditions indicate that the signs of economic stabilization are gradually obvious, but still There is a certain degree of uncertainty. Zhang Liqun stressed that “orders reflect market demand. In the first quarter, the growth rate of exports, investment and consumption decreased significantly compared with the same period of last year. In April, the finished goods inventory index in the PMI index fell by 1.3 points, and the purchasing volume index fell by 0.4 points, indicating that Inventory activities are still continuing. Due to changes in demand, it is expected that economic growth will continue to decline in the future. Stable investment growth and steady demand growth have become the key to stable economic growth.” According to data previously released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP growth in the first quarter fell back to 8.1% in the first quarter, which was the fifth consecutive quarter of slowdown. Therefore, the market is very concerned about the future trend of the economy. Huang Yiping, a professor of economics at Peking University National Development Research Institute, believes that from the PMI data in April, there are still downside risks in the short-term economy, but the prospects for stabilization and improvement are quite clear. Lu Zhongyuan, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out earlier that the slowdown of the Chinese economy in the first quarter was in line with expectations. It is expected that in the worst case, the economy will bottom out in the second quarter, and the fundamentals of future growth will not change significantly. The overall tone of macroeconomic regulation will not change in the short term. In May or the temporary deposit rate threshold window, although the overall tone of macroeconomic regulation will not change, the "pre-adjustment and fine-tuning" will continue. Merlin's economist Lu Ting pointed out in the latest report released yesterday that "China will reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 50 basis points twice before the end of the year, and once in the second quarter, to stabilize liquidity, but cut interest rates. The probability is quite small.” Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, said that given the fact that the domestic negative interest rate era has not yet completely ended, the possibility of a short-term cut in the benchmark interest rate is still limited. The central bank is more inclined to guide the reduction of market interest rates by increasing liquidity supply. It is expected that the probability of lowering the deposit reserve ratio at the beginning of May is very high. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, also believes that it is still necessary to cut the deposit reserve ratio to release liquidity to the market in the future. In May, it is still a window of downward adjustment. In addition, yesterday's data also showed that the small business PMI index reflecting the small business situation fell for two consecutive months, and in April fell to 50% below the dry watershed. At present, the index of new orders in most industries generally rebounds, while the index of new orders of small enterprises does not rise and fall, falling below 50%, reflecting the fact that the current shortage of small enterprises is more prominent. Therefore, Cai Jin emphasized that the situation of small enterprises is still not satisfactory, and the government needs to increase support for small enterprises. In addition to giving preferential treatment in finance, finance and taxation, the government should also introduce appropriate policy measures to increase orders for small businesses, expand their market demand, and encourage their exports.

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