Alkaline strong chlorine weak production and sales upside down serious ** The market is so weak because of the alkaline chlorine imbalance. Due to the relatively strong demand for caustic soda, the price has remained firm at high levels. In particular, after the Tokao chlor-alkali plant in Japan was shut down, the overall supply of the caustic soda market in Northeast Asia decreased. Users in Australia and North America turned to China for inquiries, and the export prices of liquid caustic soda continued to improve, further leading to high domestic prices of caustic soda. In many areas, the ex-factory price of 32% caustic soda was as high as 900 yuan (t price, the same below), and the ex-factory price of 45% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda climbed to a high of 1,300 yuan. Caustic soda's strong market conditions led to the difficulty of reducing the starting load of chlor-alkali plants. Therefore, the ** market and the caustic soda formed a strong contrast, out of a very tragic market, although the manufacturing cost is higher than 900 yuan, the sales price is less than 100 yuan, production and sales upside down serious.
In the 10 years since the passive production expansion deviated from the downstream demand, the pace of domestic chlor-alkali expansion has not stopped. The production capacity has increased by 10 times in 10 years and reached 30 million tons by 2010. According to statistics, the new capacity will increase by 3.5 million tons in the first 10 months of this year. It is expected that by the end of this year, the total chlor-alkali capacity will reach more than 34 million tons. What is even more worrying is that in areas where salt resources and power resources are relatively abundant, the momentum for energy expansion has not faded. Since the chlor-alkali production process determines that each ton of caustic soda is produced, 300 kg of coke is to be co-produced. According to this ratio, the current domestic liquid chlorine production capacity has exceeded 10 million tons. This passive expansion has completely changed the supply and demand balance of liquid chlorine. , triggering an abnormal situation in the relevant market.
The downstream products of chlorine consumption mainly include polyvinyl chloride resin, chloroacetic acid, propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, methane chloride, etc., but these products are generally in a low cycle of the economy, especially methane chloride in methane chloride,* ***And other varieties ended with the influence of Japan's earthquake, and the number of exports dropped sharply. Coupled with the stagflation of the real estate industry, the demand for related downstream products has fallen sharply. Li Xiangyang, head of the marketing department of Yanhai Chemical Co., Ltd. of Jiangsu Province, believes that the layout of the chlor-alkali industry is very important and disorderly competition is terrible. In some areas, it is not possible to consider the advantages of a single factor. It is necessary to combine salt resources and power resources while focusing on market resources and achieving the unity of the three. Otherwise, the tangled situation of chlor-alkali products will continue for a long time.
Poor circulation leads to the bottleneck of the bottleneck. Currently, the rapid development of the caustic soda market has led to a serious decline in market prices, which has led to extreme declines in market prices in high-capacity areas. However, market prices in the southeastern, southern, and northeastern regions can still be maintained. 500 to 1,000 yuan interval. In accordance with the law of capital operation and the role of internal market adjustment mechanisms, there should be some ** flow to the above-mentioned areas where prices are relatively bullish. However, this seems to be people's wishful thinking. The actual circulation radius of ** is quite limited. The reason for this is that the market has made a frustrating choice. "Generally speaking, the transportation radius of the current ** is very difficult to exceed 300 kilometers. ** Poor mobility, low adjustment ability between regions, which is caused by a variety of reasons." Deputy General Manager of Shandong Jinling Group Corporation Li Rongzeng believes that the current rising oil prices, freight rates, and labor costs have led to high logistics costs. Even if there is a certain price difference between regions, high transportation costs will completely offset these costs, making operators unprofitable. At the same time, ** is a highly toxic hazardous chemicals, affected by multiple accidents, and supervision is increasingly strict. Only storage and transport units with hazardous chemicals qualifications can engage in logistics and transportation. The narrowing of channels naturally leads to higher transportation costs and weakened Mobility.
The industry believes that to change the structural defects must be a two-pronged approach, on the one hand to compress production capacity, on the other hand to expand downstream demand, thus improving the upstream and downstream matching relationship. It is necessary to change the status quo of blind competition by curbing the expansion of chlor-alkali and accelerating the industrial integration of the eastern and western regions. The more direct and effective means is to eliminate backward production capacity. At present, it is a good time to eliminate backward production capacity. The National Development and Reform Commission has announced that it will increase the price of electricity by 3 points/kWh from December 1. For high-energy chlor-alkali companies, it has a great impact. At present, domestic diaphragm alkaline unit power consumption is 2500 kwh, ordinary ion-exchange membrane caustic soda consumption is 2250 kwh, and the most advanced “zero-pole distance†ion-exchange membrane caustic soda consumes only 2000 kwh. According to calculations, this time the power price adjustment, the diaphragm base will increase the cost of electricity by 75 yuan, which is undoubtedly a big factor in profit reduction, and it will also increase the level of ** losses. Therefore, there should be bravery of the brave warriors. Take this opportunity to actively eliminate some of the membrane caustic soda devices, so that the supply capacity can be reduced simultaneously.
Another way to solve the problem of serious oversupply is to increase the research and development of downstream chlorine-consuming products. Although the use and consumption of ** are now much larger than before, the downstream digestive capacity is obviously insufficient compared with the huge domestic production capacity. Therefore, it is imperative to extend the industrial chain, expand the industrial chain, and optimize the industrial chain, such as expanding the scope of application of methylene chloride in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and detergents, doing a good job of deep processing, and vigorously developing new materials for fluorine chemicals. Wait.
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