The external environment is full of suspense about how the Chinese economy is “all-inclusive”

"The uncertainty of the world economy cannot be impossible to affect the Chinese economy. Last year, China's economy was a difficult year. This year is a complicated year. Will it be a trouble year next year?" "Domestic inflation seems to have a turning point, down The trend is more obvious, but the economic growth rate has also slowed down. In this case, where will the future economy go?” On Monday, November 28, the “2011 China Economic Forum” was held in Shanghai. A series of questions were thrown and sparked a hot discussion. The Chinese economy is increasingly integrated into the global economic system. To analyze the current situation and direction of the Chinese economy, we must first and must analyze the world economy. The global financial crisis that erupted in 2008 has now "deeply evolved" into a new stage. The main feature is that the US and European sovereign debt crises are intertwined and the development prospects are uncertain. "In this case, the development goals of the Chinese economy should be multi-pronged and comprehensively consider various factors." How do you "all-round"? What are the risks? Experts have their own ideas. Put it out or inspire more thinking. The external environment is full of suspense As the forum's host, the Shanghai Development Research Foundation Secretary-General Joe Yide is at the forefront, thinking that the current global economy is full of uncertainty, mainly in the following aspects. First, as the United States, the world's largest economy, the current economic outlook is very problematic. Although its economy is in a weak recovery phase, due to the political level, the two parties in the United States have not been able to reach an agreement on reducing the deficit. If a mechanism is in place, that will have a big negative impact on the recovery of the US economy. The other is the European sovereign debt crisis, which still cannot be seen. Professor Fan Gang, director of the National Economic Research Institute of the China Economic Reform Research Foundation, admits that China's various problems do have a world background. Domestic issues reflect international affairs, and many problems in the United States reflect international affairs. Professor Xu Mingqi, deputy director of the Institute of World Economics of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, used “chaos” to describe many uncertain events that occurred in 2011. The biggest event is the sovereign debt crisis, not only in Europe, but also in Europe. In the mechanism of saving member states, there is no agreement on how to effectively “solve the crisis”. “The market does not believe in bad checks, so this crisis is still Further spread." As for the debt crisis in Europe, should China help? On this question, Professor Xu gave a positive answer, "I should still help within the scope of what I can do." The Chinese economy is increasingly dependent on the outside world, and the continued growth of the Chinese economy requires a stable external environment. If there is a big crisis in the Eurozone and even the collapse of the Euro, then the global economy will have a big combination and a big adjustment, which is not good news for the Chinese economy. In addition, the EU is China's largest export market after all. If Europe is in a serious recession, it is not good for the Chinese economy. In addition, if the renminbi is to be internationalized, that is, to change the current situation of the US dollar alone, it needs a currency that can compete with the US dollar. At present, the most favorable condition is the euro. "If the euro smashes, The situation of the dollar’s ​​dominance, I think it will be extended for 30 years." See how monetary policy fine-tunes "The overall judgment on the inflation situation, my view is that the short-term has already peaked. In the future, I feel that even moderate inflation may not exist." Director of the Economic Climate and Forecasting Research Office of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Professor Liu Yusong’s prediction is very optimistic. He defines more than 4% of inflation as moderate inflation, and inflation below 4% as moderate inflation. Moderate inflation is needed for economic development. "For some time after 2012, inflation should be lower than 4%." He believes that the reasons for the persistence of inflationary pressures in the medium term are: first, the pressure of imported inflation is high, second, the cost of labor will continue to rise, and third, the price of agricultural products may continue to rise. It is important to judge this mid-term inflation trend. "If you think that inflationary pressures will not be alleviated, then you should stick to the tighter monetary policy now. If you think that inflationary pressures will be alleviated in the future, then monetary policy should be put in place. One put." He is worried that if the monetary policy is not adjusted in time, the decline in China's economic growth rate may exceed expectations. In the long run, the growth rate of labor force, the growth of effective labor time, the demographic dividend, the growth rate of investment, the speed of scientific and technological progress, the speed of resource allocation efficiency, the speed of foreign demand growth, and so on, these indicators are pointing One direction is that China's economic growth rate will slow down. Therefore, we must adjust the monetary policy and implement a normal monetary policy. "The normal monetary policy has one of the simplest standards, which is the positive real interest rate." Liu Yusong bluntly stated that China’s long-term negative real interest rate policy is not normal. The fundamental reason is that the judgment of the economic situation is relatively lagging behind. "After Premier Wen Jiabao went to Wenzhou in early October, the monetary policy has undergone some fine-tuning." Liu Yusong hopes that "this fine-tuning will be appropriately increased," but it is by no means a moderately loose monetary policy. The opinion of the International Monetary Fund’s representative in China, Murtaza Saeed, is similar. He started humorously: "On the way to Shanghai, I think, I have a lot of numbers. Many times, if you can forget this data better, you should pay more attention to the interesting facts and stories that occur, so as to better understand the events that occur. Why? Think about it this way? Because when we are experiencing some big economic events, Europe or the United States, the largest annual shopping season in the United States is happening." He believes that the world economy is so "live", maybe Not balanced. What will happen in 2012? He is expected to be a relatively flat growth. How should China respond? He said that the economic development is moderate in China, domestic demand is still strong, there is a stimulating effect of national policies, inflation has also been controlled, and the overheating of the real estate market has also been controlled. He believes that “there is no need to have more policies at this stage, because the current policy is generally very healthy and beneficial, but it does need to be more flexible.” Fiscal policy can be more active for economic growth and inflation, Fan Gang Have his own opinion. First, the decline in economic growth rate is not necessarily a bad thing. It is good news that China is now returning to a relatively stable growth rate. Second, with regard to inflation, he estimates that it will be between 4% and 4.5% next year, and it has basically stabilized. But as long as inflation is above 3%, the central bank of any country is not willing to take it lightly. Because it is more than 4%, a slight negligence may lead to a vicious circle. Therefore, in this sense, it is difficult to expect monetary policy to be too loose. Therefore, it needs to be observed. He believes that it is generally felt that the policy is tight. But there is no tight process, and this adjustment cannot be realized, and the adjustment of economic growth from two digits to one digit cannot be achieved. Who is suffering the most? Of course, it is SMEs, the whole world is the same, especially in China, because China's financial system is even worse for SMEs. Therefore, there should be some micro policies to supplement this aspect. For example, special funds are allocated, such as local governments and local banks. Some special assistance and special support for SMEs should be done. This should be done. "But no matter how anyone feels, otherwise it will not be able to achieve a soft landing, and then heat up, and finally will land hard. Now adjust early, some people are uncomfortable, but will not go bankrupt in a large area. Otherwise, like some countries, there will be a large area. In the event of bankruptcy, SMEs are not a problem of development difficulties, but a question of whether they can survive. In fact, "we still have fiscal policies. This year's tax revenue has a 30% increase, and the overall financial situation is relatively healthy, so Fiscal policy should play a role." At the end of the speech, Fan Gang’s point of view is clear – next year’s Chinese economy, from macro to real estate, is a process of completing a soft landing: first, the growth rate has slowed down. Second, the real estate bubble has squeezed out a large part, and the price is obvious. Adjustment (the real estate market has a bubble, but because of the relatively timely measures taken, it does not affect most second- and third-tier cities, so China's real estate market will not be a hard landing, but also a soft landing). He believes: "There is risk in this. The key is how to grasp the policy perspective? First, we must closely observe and analyze in time. The nature of macroeconomic policy is short-term policy, that is, it should be adjusted in time according to the changing situation; second, if inflationary pressure Still, if monetary policy is difficult to change very much, fiscal policy should remain positive."

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